Minnesota Lynx at Toronto Tempo
MIN
13-3
TOR
8-8
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
innesota Lynx visit Toronto Tempo Thursday at 7/30 - 7:00 PM EDT. MIN arrives on a 3-game win streak (7-1 in their last 8). TOR is 4-4 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
50
FG %
44
Season series
MIN leads series 1-0
TOR72@MIN100TOR@MINupcomingMIN@TORtodayScouting report
MIN @ TOR
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
MIN -45.3
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
MIN
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
13-3
Record
8-8
#1
Conf rank
#4
+12.9
Pt diff
-2.0
W3
Streak
W1
9-1
Last 10
5-5
92.5
Power score
47.2
#1
Power rank
#9
49.1
Sched ahead
56.3
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.4%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TOR vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Marina MabreyTOR19.6± 9.5medium
- Olivia MilesMIN18.9± 8.9medium
- Brittney SykesTOR18.1± 10.6medium
Rebounds
- Natasha HowardMIN7.1± 2.5medium
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.8± 1.9medium
- Courtney WilliamsMIN5.4± 3.4medium
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.5± 2.8medium
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.3± 2.0medium
- Marina MabreyTOR4.2± 2.7medium
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.3± 1.3medium
- Nyara SaballyTOR1.1± 1.0low
- Liatu KingMIN0.8± 1.6low
Steals
- Natasha HowardMIN1.9± 1.7medium
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.7± 1.2medium
- Julie AllemandTOR1.6± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
TOR
50.4%
FG%
44.6
43.8%
40.0%
3PT %
33.4
35.0%
92.3
PPG
85.7
89.6
21.8
Assists / G
18.0
19.4
14.1
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.8