Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+32MIN

MIN

24-6

10472

TOR

10-18

WNBAThu, Jul 30FinalSeriesMIN wins series 3-0VegasMIN -12.5

MIN · top performer

Napheesa Collier

F · #24

15.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Laura Juskaite

F · #2

12.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 8pp · 1st Quarter · 4:44

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	24	9	3-8	—	3-3	+26	8	4
N. CollierF · #24	22	16	7-12	2-2	—	+17	5	2
K. McBrideG · #21	24	13	5-11	3-7	—	+25	0	3
C. WilliamsG · #10	25	16	6-11	1-4	3-4	+25	3	5
O. MilesG · #5	23	16	6-15	0-2	4-5	+14	3	0
Bench
N. CoffeyF · #12	6	3	1-1	1-1	—	+4	0	2
D. JuhaszF · #14	22	12	4-8	4-7	—	+13	5	2
A. DelaereF · #8	16	7	3-5	1-2	—	+7	2	3
A. KosuF · #7	7	3	1-2	1-1	—	+4	0	0
M. CaldwellG · #3	18	4	2-5	0-2	—	+15	5	1
HamzovaG · #11	14	5	2-4	—	1-1	+10	5	4
Team		104	40-82	13-28	11-13		36	26
DNP: E. Cechova

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. CondeF · #10	28	5	2-6	1-4	—	-13	2	2
L. JuskaiteF · #2	30	19	7-12	2-4	3-4	-27	5	3
T. FagbenleC · #14	19	6	3-5	—	—	-5	3	0
M. MabreyG · #3	28	16	6-11	2-6	2-3	-28	3	4
J. AllemandG · #22	22	0	0-2	0-2	—	-12	2	6
Bench
N. SaballyF · #8	14	10	4-6	1-1	1-3	-20	2	0
T. KeyF · #7	12	0	0-2	0-1	—	-10	1	0
K. NurseG · #11	19	3	1-6	1-4	—	-14	3	2
K. RiceG · #1	23	6	2-9	2-5	—	-29	4	2
T. PouyeG · #32	5	7	3-3	1-1	0-1	-2	1	0
Team		72	28-62	10-28	6-11		26	19
DNP: I. Harrison, B. Sykes

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

40-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-62

FG %

13-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-28

11-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

6-11

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN wins series 3-0

May 22

TOR72@

MIN100

Jul 29

TOR93@

MIN100

Jul 31

MIN104@

TOR72today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

186.5

High-scoring · +21.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.4h

Moneyline

MIN-77089%

TOR+51916%

12· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -12.5↗SpreadBet MIN -12.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

186.5

+3.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat TOR 104-72. N. Collier led with 16 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST. MIN outscored the other side 31-14 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 19 REB · 14 AST

GS 65

Bench(6)

34 PTS · 17 REB · 12 AST

GS 33

TORstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

46 PTS · 15 REB · 15 AST

GS 35

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST

GS 8

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN1st Quarter · 4:43 · 8-16

+8pp→ 49% WP

Lynx · offensive team rebound

TOR1st Quarter · 4:44 · 8-16

+8pp→ 57% WP

Natasha Howard · offensive rebound

MIN2nd Quarter · 8:52 · 23-23

+7pp→ 64% WP

Dorka Juhasz · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Antonia Delaere assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	18	32	31	23	104
TOR	19	22	14	17	72

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · TOR won 1

Miles 10

Juskaite 9

Collier 12

Mabrey 7

Juhasz 6

Mabrey 5

Hamzova 5

Juskaite 7

MIN

TOR

Shooting comparison

MIN

TOR

49%

40-82

45%

28-62

46%

13-28

3PT

36%

10-28

85%

11-13

55%

6-11

Play-by-play · 382 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 104·TOR 72
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 104·TOR 72
Q4·7.4
Tima Pouye traveling turnover
MIN 104·TOR 72
Q4·11.5
Tempo offensive team rebound
MIN 104·TOR 72
Q4·12.2
Tima Pouye misses free throw 1 of 1
MIN 104·TOR 72
Q4·12.2
Maya Caldwell shooting foul
MIN 104·TOR 72
Q4·12.2
Tima Pouye makes running layup (Kiki Rice assists)
·
MIN 104·TOR 72
Q4·16.8
Maya Caldwell bad pass turnover (Maria Conde steals)
·
MIN 104·TOR 70
Q4·26.8
Tima Pouye makes two point shot
MIN 104·TOR 70
Q4·26.8
Tima Pouye offensive rebound
MIN 104·TOR 68
Q4·31.2
Teonni Key misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 104·TOR 68
Q4·53.1
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes 22-foot three point jumper (Eliska Hamzova assists)
·
MIN 104·TOR 68
Q4·1:03
Maya Caldwell defensive rebound
MIN 101·TOR 68
Q4·1:07
Kia Nurse misses two point shot
MIN 101·TOR 68
Q4·1:16
Dorka Juhasz bad pass turnover (Tima Pouye steals)
·
MIN 101·TOR 68
Q4·1:20
Kiki Rice bad pass turnover (Dorka Juhasz steals)
·
MIN 101·TOR 68
Q4·1:33
Maya Caldwell makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Eliska Hamzova assists)
·
MIN 101·TOR 68
Q4·1:45
Lynx defensive team rebound
MIN 99·TOR 68
Q4·1:47
Kiki Rice misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIN 99·TOR 68
Q4·1:56
Eliska Hamzova makes driving layup
MIN 99·TOR 68
Q4·2:14
Lynx defensive team rebound
MIN 97·TOR 68
Q4·2:14
Maria Conde misses 21-foot turnaround jump shot
MIN 97·TOR 68
Q4·2:37
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu offensive foul turnover
MIN 97·TOR 68
Q4·2:37
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu offensive foul
MIN 97·TOR 68
Q4·2:42
Eliska Hamzova offensive rebound
MIN 97·TOR 68
Q4·2:45
Antonia Delaere misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 97·TOR 68
Q4·2:51
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 97·TOR 68
Q4·3:11
Tima Pouye makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kia Nurse assists)
·
MIN 97·TOR 68
Q4·3:20
Maria Conde defensive rebound
MIN 97·TOR 65
Q4·3:22
Maya Caldwell misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 97·TOR 65

Betting line

MIN -12.5·O/U 186.5·MIN -770/TOR +519

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx went into Toronto Tempo and beat them, 104–72. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIN -12.5 cashed (won by 32). Total stayed UNDER 186.5 by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

MIN

TOR

eFG%

shooting

56.7%

53.2%

TOV%

ball control

10.2%

24.8%

OREB%

offensive glass

41.2%

21.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

13.4%

9.7%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391
Olivia MilesMIN · G
TS%.65191
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

13.6%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
20.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
21.3%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
25.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.37

CLV pp

Open price

+468

Close price

+518

Open no-vig

16.8%

Close no-vig

15.5%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.3pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best

-770DraftKings

edge +3.3pp · implied 84.6%

TOR

no live price

Book	MIN	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	-770★	+519	+3.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 80 high confidence

Points

Kayla McBrideMIN
20.7± 8.2high
Olivia MilesMIN
20.2± 8.0high
Marina MabreyTOR
20.2± 8.9high

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowTOR
7.6± 4.7high
Natasha HowardMIN
7.1± 2.9high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
5.7± 3.8medium

Assists

Olivia MilesMIN
6.0± 2.8high
Julie AllemandTOR
6.0± 2.2high
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.4± 1.9high

Blocks

Dorka JuhaszMIN
1.0± 0.3low
Nia CoffeyMIN
0.9± 0.9high
Natasha HowardMIN
0.8± 1.0high

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
1.9± 1.4high
Natasha HowardMIN
1.7± 1.1high
Julie AllemandTOR
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Maj Forsberg

Referee

Marcy Williams

Referee

Genesis Perrymond

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Team pages

Minnesota LynxToronto Tempo

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop