Connecticut Sun at Chicago Sky
CON
2-15
CHI
4-10
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
onnecticut Sun visit Chicago Sky Thursday at 7/30 - 8:00 PM EDT.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
42
FG %
42
Season series
CHI leads series 1-0
CON80@CHI85CHI@CONupcomingCON@CHItodayCHI@CONupcomingScouting report
CON @ CHI
Tale of the tape
2-15
Record
4-10
#7
Conf rank
#6
-10.6
Pt diff
-5.3
L7
Streak
L4
1-9
Last 10
1-9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.4%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Skylar DigginsCHI15.8± 7.2low
- Brittney GrinerCON12.3± 5.6low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON10.1± 5.0medium
- Kamilla CardosoCHI7.6± 4.5medium
- Azura StevensCHI5.7± 5.0low
Assists
- Leila LacanCON4.8± 2.8low
- Skylar DigginsCHI4.3± 3.6low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.2± 3.0low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.7± 2.2medium
- Brittney GrinerCON1.5± 1.6low
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.3± 1.3low
Steals
- Leila LacanCON1.6± 1.4low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.3± 1.6low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.1± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
CHI
42.6%
FG%
44.6
42.3%
26.0%
3PT %
33.4
▶31.5%
79.2
PPG
85.7
▶83.1
18.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.4
13.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.5