Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at CHI?

The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+6CHI

CON

7-22

8894

CHI

10-18

WNBAThu, Jul 30FinalSeriesCHI leads series 2-1VegasCHI -5.5

CON · top performer

Aneesah Morrow

F · #24

17.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Kamilla Cardoso

C · #10

23.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCON ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 32pp · 1st Quarter · 5:45

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. MillerF · #1	28	14	5-13	1-6	3-3	-9	3	3
A. MorrowF · #24	31	21	8-12	1-3	4-6	+2	7	2
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	25	16	5-11	—	6-6	-8	11	1
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	30	10	4-11	2-5	—	-8	1	2
L. LacanG · #47	29	12	4-7	1-2	3-4	-6	5	6
Bench
R. BeersF · #15	13	3	1-3	—	1-1	-1	3	0
N. AnglomaF · #33	3	0	0-1	—	—	+1	1	1
K. BurkeG · #25	21	7	2-6	1-5	2-4	0	0	2
S. RiversG · #22	21	5	2-6	1-1	—	-1	3	3
Team		88	31-70	7-22	19-24		34	20
DNP: A. Edwards, B. Griner, H. Van Lith, G. Kneepkens

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. CardosoC · #10	21	26	8-12	—	10-11	+14	6	1
C. VanderslootG · #22	23	6	2-7	0-2	2-2	+9	5	6
N. CloudG · #9	31	11	4-8	0-1	3-3	+4	0	5
A. CoulibalyG · #35	13	3	1-2	—	1-1	-1	3	1
S. TaylorG · #12	31	14	6-12	2-7	—	+5	2	6
Bench
C. BibbyF · #55	18	8	3-7	2-4	—	+4	1	2
E. WilliamsC · #1	19	4	2-5	—	—	-6	4	0
D. CarringtonG · #7	17	9	2-5	2-3	3-4	+3	3	0
J. SheldonG · #0	15	7	2-5	1-4	2-2	0	2	0
G. JaquezG · #11	13	6	2-4	0-1	2-3	-2	2	0
Team		94	32-67	7-22	23-26		28	21
DNP: A. Stevens, S. Diggins, R. Banham

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

31-70

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-67

FG %

7-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-22

19-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHI leads series 2-1

Jun 5

CON80@

CHI85

Jun 22

CHI63@

CON92

Jul 31

CON88@

CHI94today

Aug 25

CHI@

CONupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHI -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

1.0pt· 6.4h

Total

176.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.4h

Moneyline

CON+17736%

CHI-21969%

30· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHI -5.5↗SpreadBet CHI -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

+1.0 since open

Total

176.5

+3.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat CON 94-88. K. Cardoso paced them with 26 PTS, 6 REB, 1 AST. CHI outscored the other side 33-22 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs CON

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CONstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 54

Bench(4)

15 PTS · 7 REB · 6 AST

GS 11

CHIstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 16 REB · 19 AST

GS 55

Bench(5)

34 PTS · 12 REB · 2 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI1st Quarter · 5:45 · 9-10

+32pp→ 73% WP

Chloe Bibby · enters the game for Courtney Vandersloot

CHI4th Quarter · 9:50 · 66-61

+12pp→ 47% WP

Saniya Rivers · shooting foul

CHI4th Quarter · 8:02 · 70-69

+13pp→ 65% WP

Raegan Beers · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CON	26	23	17	22	88
CHI	24	16	21	33	94

Period scoring

CON won 2 · CHI won 2

Morrow 11

Cardoso 6

Nelson-Ododa 10

Williams 17

Miller 7

Coulibaly 3

Lacan 6

Cardoso 18

CON

CHI

Shooting comparison

CON

CHI

44%

31-70

48%

32-67

32%

7-22

3PT

32%

7-22

79%

19-24

88%

23-26

Play-by-play · 416 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 88·CHI 94
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 88·CHI 94
+0.8pp
Q4·18.3
Diamond Miller makes 24-foot three point jumper (Leila Lacan assists)
·
CON 88·CHI 94
−0.5pp
Q4·23.4
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 85·CHI 94
Q4·23.4
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 85·CHI 93
Q4·23.4
Diamond Miller personal take foul
CON 85·CHI 92
Q4·32.5
Charlisse Leger-Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kennedy Burke assists)
·
CON 85·CHI 92
Q4·42.9
DiJonai Carrington makes 24-foot three point jumper (Courtney Vandersloot assists)
·
CON 82·CHI 92
+0.7pp
Q4·43.7
Courtney Vandersloot offensive rebound
CON 82·CHI 89
+1pp
Q4·46.5
Courtney Vandersloot misses driving layup
CON 82·CHI 89
−0.6pp
Q4·1:03
Sky defensive team rebound
CON 82·CHI 89
Q4·1:04
Kennedy Burke misses 23-foot running jump shot
CON 82·CHI 89
+2pp
Q4·1:07
Leila Lacan defensive rebound
CON 82·CHI 89
Q4·1:10
Aneesah Morrow blocks Kamilla Cardoso 's 2-foot two point shot
·
CON 82·CHI 89
−1pp
Q4·1:12
Kamilla Cardoso offensive rebound
CON 82·CHI 89
+2pp
Q4·1:14
Courtney Vandersloot misses 23-foot three point jumper
CON 82·CHI 89
−1pp
Q4·1:31
Leila Lacan makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Diamond Miller assists)
·
CON 82·CHI 89
−0.8pp
Q4·1:40
Kamilla Cardoso makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 80·CHI 89
−0.6pp
Q4·1:40
Kamilla Cardoso makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 80·CHI 88
Q4·1:40
Diamond Miller personal foul
CON 80·CHI 87
+2pp
Q4·1:51
Aneesah Morrow makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 80·CHI 87
+2pp
Q4·1:51
Aneesah Morrow makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 79·CHI 87
−4pp
Q4·1:51
Sky delay of game violation
CON 78·CHI 87
+3pp
Q4·1:51
Kamilla Cardoso shooting foul
CON 78·CHI 87
−3pp
Q4·1:55
Kennedy Burke vs. Natasha Cloud (Aneesah Morrow gains possession)
· ·
CON 78·CHI 87
Q4·2:07
Sun offensive team rebound
CON 78·CHI 87
Q4·2:07
Kennedy Burke vs. Kamilla Cardoso (Leila Lacan gains possession)
· ·
CON 78·CHI 87
−0.5pp
Q4·2:09
Charlisse Leger-Walker misses 23-foot three point jumper
CON 78·CHI 87
+0.7pp
Q4·2:21
DiJonai Carrington makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 78·CHI 87
−0.6pp
Q4·2:21
DiJonai Carrington makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 78·CHI 86

Betting line

CHI -5.5·O/U 176.5·CON +177/CHI -219

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

hicago Sky held off Connecticut Sun, 94–88.

CHI -5.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 176.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

CHI

eFG%

shooting

49.3%

53.0%

TOV%

ball control

16.6%

14.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

26.7%

18.8%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

27.1%

34.3%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowTOR · F
DRB%.37599+
Kamilla CardosoCHI · C
ORB%.10789
Kennedy BurkeCON · G
ORB%.05871

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.5%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
69.1%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
70.9%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
74.1%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+5.27

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-163

Close price

-207

Open no-vig

59.2%

Close no-vig

64.5%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at CHI?: The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

CON

no live price

CHI

no live price

Book	CON	CHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+177	-219	+0.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHI vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

Sydney TaylorCHI
17.5± 6.0high
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low
Brittney GrinerCON
14.5± 7.5medium

Rebounds

Kamilla CardosoCHI
8.5± 3.7high
Azura StevensCHI
7.2± 2.9high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.8± 3.3high

Assists

Natasha CloudCHI
5.4± 1.8high
Skylar DigginsCHI
4.9± 2.4high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
4.7± 3.6low

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.4± 1.1high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low

Steals

Leila LacanCON
1.8± 1.4high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.4± 1.4low
Azura StevensCHI
1.3± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Isaac Barnett

Referee

Tiara Cruse

Referee

Gerda Gatling

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Team pages

Connecticut SunChicago Sky

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop