Golden State Valkyries at Phoenix Mercury
GS
10-6
PHX
4-12
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
olden State Valkyries visit Phoenix Mercury Wednesday at 7/29 - 10:00 PM EDT. GS is 5-4 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
41
FG %
42
Season series
GS leads series 2-0
PHX79@GS95PHX81@GS87GS@PHXtodayScouting report
GS @ PHX
Tale of the tape
10-6
Record
4-12
#3
Conf rank
#7
+5.8
Pt diff
-5.0
L1
Streak
L4
6-4
Last 10
2-8
75.7
Sched ahead
56.6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.4%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.6± 10.1medium
- Gabby WilliamsGS17.2± 8.3medium
- Janelle SalaunGS14.4± 5.2medium
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.1± 3.4medium
- Alyssa ThomasPHX6.9± 3.2medium
- Kayla ThorntonGS5.5± 3.3medium
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.3± 2.7medium
- Veronica BurtonGS5.3± 2.7medium
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX2.9± 2.1low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.6± 1.6medium
- Natasha MackPHX1.4± 1.2medium
- Veronica BurtonGS0.9± 1.8medium
Steals
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX1.6± 1.0low
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.5± 0.8medium
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.5± 1.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
PHX
40.6%
FG%
44.6
▶42.3%
36.3%
3PT %
33.4
32.3%
84.4
PPG
85.7
81.8
18.9
Assists / G
18.0
18.9
10.2
Turnovers / G
13.0
13.4