NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1OTT

OTT

38-24-9

DET

38-25-8

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriesDET wins series 3-1VegasDET -135

OTT · top performer

Carter Yakemchuk

D · #58

2Points

—

SOG

DET · top performer

Dylan Larkin

C · #71

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	18:57
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	13:41
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	1	1	4	1	2	12:20
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	15:13
L. EllerC · #89	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	10:23
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:03
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:23
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	1	3	0	1	2	18:45
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	19:06
T. StutzleC · #18	0	1	-1	2	3	1	0	17:33
B. TkachukLW · #7	1	1	1	1	3	0	2	15:48
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DonovanD · #56	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4:42
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	28:11
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	19:57
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	26:24
C. YakemchukD · #58	1	1	2	2	0	2	0	12:46
A. ZubD · #2	0	1	1	0	0	1	5	25:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	35	2	33	.943	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	11:16
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	14:51
A. CoppC · #18	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:50
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	0	1	0	4	1	1	5	21:19
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:12
P. KaneRW · #88	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	19:41
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:32
D. LarkinC · #71	1	0	-1	5	1	0	2	22:38
D. PerronLW · #57	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	11:40
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	1	-1	1	2	0	0	22:04
D. ShineRW · #65	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	5:17
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:28

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	9:39
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	-1	1	1	3	0	18:43
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	1	1	3	3	3	2	21:32
J. FaulkD · #72	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	21:53
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	10:52
M. SeiderD · #53	0	1	1	7	2	2	0	28:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	21	3	18	.857	58:16

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DET wins series 3-1

Jan 6

DET5@

OTT3

Jan 18

OTT3@

DET4

Feb 27

DET2@

OTT1

Mar 24

OTT3@

DET2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT+11447%

DET-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 50 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat DET 3-2. C. Yakemchuk led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
OTT	1	2	0	3
DET	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

OTT won 2 · DET won 1

OTT

DET

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·19:53
David Perron Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·19:51
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Andrew Copp
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·19:51
Alex DeBrincat Fighting against Artem Zub
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·19:51
Artem Zub Fighting against Alex DeBrincat
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·19:51
Dylan Larkin Roughing against Brady Tkachuk
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·19:51
Brady Tkachuk Roughing against Dylan Larkin
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·19:51
Goalie Stopped
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·19:49
Dylan Larkin Snap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·19:48
Patrick Kane Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·19:42
Takeaway by Alex DeBrincat
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·19:09
Shane Pinto shot blocked by Moritz Seider
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·18:59
Dylan Larkin Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·18:57
Patrick Kane shot blocked by Andrew Copp
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·18:49
Moritz Seider Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·18:40
Alex DeBrincat hit Tyler Kleven
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·17:52
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·17:52
Goalie Stopped
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·17:48
Tim Stützle Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·17:44
Giveaway by James van Riemsdyk
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·17:43
Brady Tkachuk hit J.T. Compher
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·17:07
Lars Eller faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·17:07
Goalie Stopped
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·17:05
Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·17:00
Dylan Larkin Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·16:10
Simon Edvinsson shot blocked by Mason Appleton
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·16:00
Giveaway by Nikolas Matinpalo
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·15:39
James van Riemsdyk Backhand saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·DET 2
3rd·15:38
James van Riemsdyk Tip-In Hit Right Post
·
OTT 3·DET 2

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 5.5·OTT +114/DET -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 3–2.

OTT +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Dylan Larkin · DET22:480.7866.7%64.9%22:48 TOI · 0.78 iXG · 66.7% CF · 64.9% xGF
James van Riemsdyk · DET10:420.5055.0%50.0%10:42 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 55.0% CF · 50.0% xGF
Ridly Greig · OTT18:540.4940.5%46.4%18:54 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 40.5% CF · 46.4% xGF
Tim Stützle · OTT17:420.3947.1%41.1%17:42 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 47.1% CF · 41.1% xGF
Alex DeBrincat · DET21:180.3458.5%59.9%21:18 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 58.5% CF · 59.9% xGF
Moritz Seider · DET28:480.3167.2%63.4%28:48 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 67.2% CF · 63.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Linus Ullmark · OTT33–2.943+0.9633–2 · .943 SV% · +0.96 GSAx
John Gibson · DET18–3.857-0.2918–3 · .857 SV% · -0.29 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.3%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
55.3%
P(DET win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.3%
P(DET win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.3%
P(DET win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Ottawa SenatorsDetroit Red Wings

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