
OTT
38-24-9

DET
38-25-8
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ttawa Senators went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 3–2.
OTT +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
OTT · top performer

Brady Tkachuk
LW · #7
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat
RW · #93
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


OTT
38-24-9
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
DET
38-25-8
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
15
PIM
11
Season series
DET wins series 3-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 10 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
OTT beat DET 3-2.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| DET | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Period scoring
OTT won 2 · DET won 1
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 308 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·19:53
David Perron Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·19:51
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Andrew Copp
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·19:51
Alex DeBrincat Fighting against Artem Zub
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·19:51
Artem Zub Fighting against Alex DeBrincat
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·19:51
Dylan Larkin Roughing against Brady Tkachuk
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·19:51
Brady Tkachuk Roughing against Dylan Larkin
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·19:51
Goalie Stopped
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·19:49
Dylan Larkin Snap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·19:48
Patrick Kane Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·19:42
Takeaway by Alex DeBrincat
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·19:09
Shane Pinto shot blocked by Moritz Seider
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·18:59
Dylan Larkin Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·18:57
Patrick Kane shot blocked by Andrew Copp
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·18:49
Moritz Seider Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·18:40
Alex DeBrincat hit Tyler Kleven
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·17:52
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·17:52
Goalie Stopped
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·17:48
Tim Stützle Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·17:44
Giveaway by James van Riemsdyk
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·17:43
Brady Tkachuk hit J.T. Compher
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·17:07
Lars Eller faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·17:07
Goalie Stopped
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·17:05
Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·17:00
Dylan Larkin Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·16:10
Simon Edvinsson shot blocked by Mason Appleton
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·16:00
Giveaway by Nikolas Matinpalo
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·15:39
James van Riemsdyk Backhand saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·DET 2
- 3rd·15:38
James van Riemsdyk Tip-In Hit Right Post
·
OTT 3·DET 2
Team stats
OTT
Away
Stat
DET
Home
21
Shots
35
50.0
PCT
25.0
15
PIM
11
31
Faceoffs W
23
9
Blocks
14
19
Giveaways
16
6
Takeaways
4
Betting line
DET -1.5·O/U 5.5·OTT +114/DET -135
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
Moritz SeiderDET · DDIST MI299.899
Alex DeBrincatDET · RWDIST MI252.196
Emmitt FinnieDET · CBURSTS19394
Dylan LarkinDET · CDIST MI243.094
Nikolas MatinpaloOTT · DSKATE MPH22.592
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.