Live · 1
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+1OTT
OTT

OTT

38-24-9

32
DET

DET

38-25-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriesDET wins series 3-1VegasDET -135

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 3–2.

OTT +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

OTT · top performer

OTT
Brady Tkachuk

Brady Tkachuk

LW · #7

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

DET · top performer

DET
Alex DeBrincat

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
2
OTT38-24-9DET38-25-8
OTT

OTT

38-24-9

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DET

DET

38-25-8

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

PIM

11

Season series

DET wins series 3-1

Jan 6DETDET5@OTTOTT3
Jan 18OTTOTT3@DETDET4
Feb 27DETDET2@OTTOTT1
Mar 24OTTOTT3@DETDET2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTTOTT+11447%
DETDET-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat DET 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
OTT1203
DET0112

Period scoring

OTT won 2 · DET won 1

1
0

1

2
1

2

0
1

3

OTT
DET

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    OTT 3·DET 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    OTT 3·DET 2

  3. 3rd·19:53

    David Perron Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  4. 3rd·19:51

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Andrew Copp

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  5. 3rd·19:51

    Alex DeBrincat Fighting against Artem Zub

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  6. 3rd·19:51

    Artem Zub Fighting against Alex DeBrincat

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  7. 3rd·19:51

    Dylan Larkin Roughing against Brady Tkachuk

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  8. 3rd·19:51

    Brady Tkachuk Roughing against Dylan Larkin

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  9. 3rd·19:51

    Goalie Stopped

    OTT 3·DET 2

  10. 3rd·19:49

    Dylan Larkin Snap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  11. 3rd·19:48

    Patrick Kane Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  12. 3rd·19:42

    Takeaway by Alex DeBrincat

    OTT 3·DET 2

  13. 3rd·19:09

    Shane Pinto shot blocked by Moritz Seider

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  14. 3rd·18:59

    Dylan Larkin Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  15. 3rd·18:57

    Patrick Kane shot blocked by Andrew Copp

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  16. 3rd·18:49

    Moritz Seider Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  17. 3rd·18:40

    Alex DeBrincat hit Tyler Kleven

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  18. 3rd·17:52

    Andrew Copp faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  19. 3rd·17:52

    Goalie Stopped

    OTT 3·DET 2

  20. 3rd·17:48

    Tim Stützle Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  21. 3rd·17:44

    Giveaway by James van Riemsdyk

    OTT 3·DET 2

  22. 3rd·17:43

    Brady Tkachuk hit J.T. Compher

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  23. 3rd·17:07

    Lars Eller faceoff won against J.T. Compher

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  24. 3rd·17:07

    Goalie Stopped

    OTT 3·DET 2

  25. 3rd·17:05

    Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  26. 3rd·17:00

    Dylan Larkin Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  27. 3rd·16:10

    Simon Edvinsson shot blocked by Mason Appleton

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  28. 3rd·16:00

    Giveaway by Nikolas Matinpalo

    OTT 3·DET 2

  29. 3rd·15:39

    James van Riemsdyk Backhand saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

  30. 3rd·15:38

    James van Riemsdyk Tip-In Hit Right Post

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 2

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

DET

Home

21

Shots

35

50.0

PCT

25.0

15

PIM

11

31

Faceoffs W

23

9

Blocks

14

19

Giveaways

16

6

Takeaways

4

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 5.5·OTT +114/DET -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Emmitt FinnieDET · C
    BURSTS19394
  • Dylan LarkinDET · C
    DIST MI243.094
  • Nikolas MatinpaloOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.592

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR