Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CBJ

CBJ

38-22-11

PHI

34-24-12

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriesCBJ win series 3-0VegasCBJ -135

CBJ · top performer

Mason Marchment

LW · #17

2Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Sean Couturier

C · #14

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	18:04
A. FantilliC · #19	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	15:16
C. GarlandRW · #83	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:41
D. HeinenLW · #43	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:18
B. JennerC · #38	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	16:31
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:21
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	14:41
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:38
M. MarchmentLW · #17	1	1	1	4	3	1	0	15:03
S. MonahanC · #23	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	15:55
M. OlivierRW · #24	1	0	1	5	7	1	2	16:44
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	17:13

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	0	1	1	1	7	13:28
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	19:58
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	11:31
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	24:53
D. SeversonD · #78	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	23:18
Z. WerenskiD · #8	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	24:27

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	26	2	24	.923	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	13:16
A. BumpLW · #20	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	10:59
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	16:00
S. CouturierC · #14	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	16:15
C. DvorakC · #22	0	1	0	0	0	0	5	17:52
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:30
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:50
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	1	2	2	2	0	12:43
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	19:32
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	16:38
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	0	7	1	0	2	18:18
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	19:08

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DrysdaleD · #9	1	0	-1	1	0	2	0	21:56
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12:58
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	1	-1	2	2	1	0	22:27
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	22:50
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:26
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	-1	2	0	3	0	20:28

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	19	3	16	.842	56:54

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CBJ win series 3-0

Jan 29

PHI3@

CBJ5

Mar 14

CBJ2@

PHI1

Mar 24

CBJ3@

PHI2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJ-13557%

PHI+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 59 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat PHI 3-2. M. Marchment led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CBJ	0	2	1	3
PHI	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

CBJ won 1 · PHI won 1

CBJ

PHI

Play-by-play · 286 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CBJ 3·PHI 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CBJ 3·PHI 2
3rd·19:58
Noah Cates Backhand Wide Right
·
CBJ 3·PHI 2
3rd·19:56
Travis Konecny shot blocked by Erik Gudbranson
·
CBJ 3·PHI 2
3rd·19:49
Takeaway by Damon Severson
CBJ 3·PHI 2
3rd·19:43
Denver Barkey Deflected Wide Right
·
CBJ 3·PHI 2
3rd·19:31
Giveaway by Rasmus Ristolainen
CBJ 3·PHI 2
3rd·18:51
Owen Tippett Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 3·PHI 2
3rd·18:33
Trevor Zegras Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CBJ 3·PHI 2
3rd·18:02
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Boone Jenner
·
CBJ 3·PHI 2
3rd·18:02
Icing
CBJ 3·PHI 2
3rd·17:56
Boone Jenner faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
CBJ 3·PHI 2
3rd·17:56
Jamie Drysdale Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (34), Christian Dvorak (28)
· ·
CBJ 3·PHI 2
3rd·17:50
Owen Tippett Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 3·PHI 1
3rd·17:05
Sean Monahan faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
CBJ 3·PHI 1
3rd·17:05
Icing
CBJ 3·PHI 1
3rd·17:00
Zach Werenski Wrist Shot Wide Right
CBJ 3·PHI 1
3rd·16:59
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
CBJ 3·PHI 1
3rd·16:59
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 3·PHI 1
3rd·16:57
Sean Couturier Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 3·PHI 1
3rd·16:25
Charlie Coyle Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
CBJ 3·PHI 1
3rd·16:20
Takeaway by Cole Sillinger
CBJ 3·PHI 1
3rd·15:55
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
CBJ 3·PHI 1
3rd·15:55
Puck in Netting
CBJ 3·PHI 1
3rd·15:39
Takeaway by Mathieu Olivier
CBJ 3·PHI 1
3rd·14:41
Ivan Provorov shot blocked by Cam York
·
CBJ 3·PHI 1
3rd·13:57
Christian Dvorak Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 3·PHI 1
3rd·13:29
Takeaway by Sean Couturier
CBJ 3·PHI 1
3rd·13:02
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
CBJ 3·PHI 1
3rd·13:02
TV Timeout
CBJ 3·PHI 1

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·CBJ -135/PHI +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 3–2.

PHI +1.5 cashed (CBJ won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Owen Tippett · PHI18:301.0171.9%72.8%18:30 TOI · 1.01 iXG · 71.9% CF · 72.8% xGF
Noah Cates · PHI16:000.6973.9%73.5%16:00 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 73.9% CF · 73.5% xGF
Mason Marchment · CBJ15:120.5051.9%46.5%15:12 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 51.9% CF · 46.5% xGF
Mathieu Olivier · CBJ16:420.3956.0%77.9%16:42 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 56.0% CF · 77.9% xGF
Garnet Hathaway · FLA12:540.2354.2%59.3%12:54 TOI · 0.23 iXG · 54.2% CF · 59.3% xGF
Sean Couturier · PHI16:240.2356.7%70.1%16:24 TOI · 0.23 iXG · 56.7% CF · 70.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jet Greaves · CBJ24–2.923+0.8124–2 · .923 SV% · +0.81 GSAx
Dan Vladar · PHI16–3.842-1.6216–3 · .842 SV% · -1.62 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
53.6%
P(PHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.6%
P(PHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.6%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Columbus Blue JacketsPhiladelphia Flyers

Elsewhere in the NHL