Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at PIT?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4COL

COL

47-13-10

PIT

35-20-16

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -175

COL · top performer

Martin Necas

C · #88

2Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Egor Chinakhov

RW · #59

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:41
R. ColtonC · #20	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	11:50
J. DruryC · #18	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	14:06
N. KadriC · #91	0	1	2	2	0	1	4	16:12
P. KellyC · #17	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	13:21
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:15
G. LandeskogLW · #92	0	0	0	3	1	4	0	16:27
N. MacKinnonC · #29	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:03
M. NecasC · #88	2	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:20
B. NelsonC · #11	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	15:50
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	14:58
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	15:05

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	1	2	0	1	2	17:28
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	-1	1	0	3	0	21:53
C. MakarD · #8	0	1	-1	2	0	5	0	22:04
S. MalinskiD · #70	1	1	3	3	1	0	0	17:29
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	1	3	2	1	2	18:29
D. ToewsD · #7	0	1	3	1	0	2	0	19:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. WedgewoodG · #41	32	2	30	.938	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	12:51
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	10:48
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	1	0	-1	4	1	0	0	15:30
S. CrosbyC · #87	0	1	-3	6	1	0	0	21:11
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12:58
B. KindelC · #81	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12:20
V. KoivunenRW · #41	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:06
A. ManthaRW · #39	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	18:08
T. NovakC · #18	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:56
R. RakellRW · #67	1	0	-3	4	1	0	0	22:40
B. RustRW · #17	0	1	-3	3	2	0	2	21:40
E. SoderblomLW · #25	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	10:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	-2	2	5	1	0	16:36
S. GirardD · #49	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	18:11
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	23:53
K. LetangD · #58	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	17:16
R. SheaD · #5	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	16:23
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	20:53

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SilovsG · #37	29	5	24	.828	59:50

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 17

PIT7@

COL2

Mar 24

COL6@

PIT2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-17564%

PIT+14541%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat PIT 6-2. M. Necas led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
COL	4	1	1	6
PIT	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

COL won 2 · PIT won 0

COL

PIT

Play-by-play · 333 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·19:39
Sam Malinski shot blocked by Noel Acciari
·
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·19:33
Giveaway by Connor Clifton
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·19:21
Connor Dewar faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·19:21
Goalie Stopped
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·19:18
Brent Burns Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·19:18
Giveaway by Ryan Shea
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·19:00
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·19:00
Icing
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·18:24
Giveaway by Jack Drury
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·18:20
Giveaway by Parker Wotherspoon
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·18:09
Takeaway by Ross Colton
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·17:54
Egor Chinakhov shot blocked by Devon Toews
·
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·17:40
Giveaway by Ross Colton
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·17:35
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Thomas Novak
·
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·17:35
Goalie Stopped
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·17:32
Ben Kindel Slap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·17:22
Ryan Shea Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·16:43
Jack Drury faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·16:43
Icing
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·16:20
Jack Drury faceoff won against Connor Dewar
·
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·16:20
Ross Colton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (26), Jack Drury (14)
· ·
COL 6·PIT 2
3rd·16:16
Bryan Rust hit Jack Drury
·
COL 5·PIT 2
3rd·15:36
Sidney Crosby hit Josh Manson
·
COL 5·PIT 2
3rd·15:28
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
COL 5·PIT 2
3rd·15:28
Off-side
COL 5·PIT 2
3rd·15:07
Martin Necas hit Erik Karlsson
·
COL 5·PIT 2
3rd·15:03
Gabriel Landeskog Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
COL 5·PIT 2
3rd·14:59
Parker Wotherspoon hit Martin Necas
·
COL 5·PIT 2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -175/PIT +145

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Pittsburgh Penguins and beat them, 6–2.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Sidney Crosby · PIT21:360.7375.0%83.4%21:36 TOI · 0.73 iXG · 75.0% CF · 83.4% xGF
Nathan MacKinnon · COL19:180.5146.2%46.7%19:18 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 46.2% CF · 46.7% xGF
Rickard Rakell · PIT23:060.4774.4%81.6%23:06 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 74.4% CF · 81.6% xGF
Bryan Rust · PIT22:120.4569.0%74.7%22:12 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 69.0% CF · 74.7% xGF
Anthony Mantha · PIT18:180.4465.9%67.1%18:18 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 65.9% CF · 67.1% xGF
Martin Necas · COL16:240.3450.0%51.3%16:24 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 50.0% CF · 51.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Scott Wedgewood · COL30–2.938+1.3730–2 · .938 SV% · +1.37 GSAx
Arturs Silovs · PIT24–5.828-2.9624–5 · .828 SV% · -2.96 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.3%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
48.3%
P(PIT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
48.3%
P(PIT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
48.3%
P(PIT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at PIT?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Colorado AvalanchePittsburgh Penguins

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