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FINAL+4COL
COL

COL

47-13-10

62
PIT

PIT

35-20-16

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -175

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Pittsburgh Penguins and beat them, 6–2.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Martin Necas

Martin Necas

C · #88

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

PIT
Egor Chinakhov

Egor Chinakhov

RW · #59

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
6
2
COL47-13-10PIT35-20-16
COL

COL

47-13-10

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PIT

PIT

35-20-16

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 17PITPIT7@COLCOL2
Mar 24COLCOL6@PITPIT2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-17564%
PITPIT+14541%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat PIT 6-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL4116
PIT1012

Period scoring

COL won 2 · PIT won 0

4
1

1

1
0

2

1
1

3

COL
PIT

Play-by-play · 333 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 6·PIT 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 6·PIT 2

  3. 3rd·19:39

    Sam Malinski shot blocked by Noel Acciari

    ·

    COL 6·PIT 2

  4. 3rd·19:33

    Giveaway by Connor Clifton

    COL 6·PIT 2

  5. 3rd·19:21

    Connor Dewar faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 6·PIT 2

  6. 3rd·19:21

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 6·PIT 2

  7. 3rd·19:18

    Brent Burns Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    COL 6·PIT 2

  8. 3rd·19:18

    Giveaway by Ryan Shea

    COL 6·PIT 2

  9. 3rd·19:00

    Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Nazem Kadri

    ·

    COL 6·PIT 2

  10. 3rd·19:00

    Icing

    COL 6·PIT 2

  11. 3rd·18:24

    Giveaway by Jack Drury

    COL 6·PIT 2

  12. 3rd·18:20

    Giveaway by Parker Wotherspoon

    COL 6·PIT 2

  13. 3rd·18:09

    Takeaway by Ross Colton

    COL 6·PIT 2

  14. 3rd·17:54

    Egor Chinakhov shot blocked by Devon Toews

    ·

    COL 6·PIT 2

  15. 3rd·17:40

    Giveaway by Ross Colton

    COL 6·PIT 2

  16. 3rd·17:35

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Thomas Novak

    ·

    COL 6·PIT 2

  17. 3rd·17:35

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 6·PIT 2

  18. 3rd·17:32

    Ben Kindel Slap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 6·PIT 2

  19. 3rd·17:22

    Ryan Shea Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 6·PIT 2

  20. 3rd·16:43

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Ben Kindel

    ·

    COL 6·PIT 2

  21. 3rd·16:43

    Icing

    COL 6·PIT 2

  22. 3rd·16:20

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Connor Dewar

    ·

    COL 6·PIT 2

  23. 3rd·16:20

    Ross Colton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (26), Jack Drury (14)

    · ·

    COL 6·PIT 2

  24. 3rd·16:16

    Bryan Rust hit Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 5·PIT 2

  25. 3rd·15:36

    Sidney Crosby hit Josh Manson

    ·

    COL 5·PIT 2

  26. 3rd·15:28

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Sidney Crosby

    ·

    COL 5·PIT 2

  27. 3rd·15:28

    Off-side

    COL 5·PIT 2

  28. 3rd·15:07

    Martin Necas hit Erik Karlsson

    ·

    COL 5·PIT 2

  29. 3rd·15:03

    Gabriel Landeskog Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    COL 5·PIT 2

  30. 3rd·14:59

    Parker Wotherspoon hit Martin Necas

    ·

    COL 5·PIT 2

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

30

Shots

32

33.3

PCT

0.0

10

PIM

8

35

Faceoffs W

33

20

Blocks

10

23

Giveaways

15

2

Takeaways

6

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -175/PIT +145

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
    SHOT MPH94.799
  • Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR