Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at FLA?

The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1FLA

SEA

31-29-10

FLA

35-32-3

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasFLA -130

SEA · top performer

Jordan Eberle

RW · #7

2Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Noah Gregor

LW · #18

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	1	0	2	3	0	2	0	22:52
B. CattonC · #27	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	19:59
J. EberleRW · #7	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	21:59
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	17:43
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:09
B. McMannC · #74	1	0	1	4	3	1	0	22:19
J. MelansonRW · #63	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	5:49
B. MeyersC · #59	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	9:12
C. StephensonC · #9	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	22:11
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	-1	0	2	3	0	15:54
S. WrightC · #51	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	14:47

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	22:33
R. EvansD · #41	1	0	2	1	0	0	2	15:26
C. FleuryD · #8	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	7:54
A. LarssonD · #6	0	1	1	4	0	3	0	21:15
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	18:05
B. MontourD · #62	0	1	-1	3	2	3	0	26:46
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:23

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DaccordG · #35	24	4	21	.875	64:44

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	18:59
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	-2	1	4	1	0	17:47
N. FooteLW · #25	1	0	2	1	3	0	0	10:47
N. GregorLW · #18	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	10:26
V. HinostrozaC · #24	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	15:30
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	10:18
E. LuostarinenC · #27	1	0	-1	2	3	0	0	20:34
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	14:35
C. ReinhardtLW · #29	0	0	-1	0	9	1	0	12:26
E. RodriguesC · #17	0	1	-1	2	0	1	0	19:46
M. TkachukLW · #19	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:59
C. VerhaegheC · #23	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:47

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BenningD · #20	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:35
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	21:54
G. ForslingD · #42	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	24:06
S. JonesD · #3	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	23:07
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	20:31
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	17:53

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BobrovskyG · #72	27	4	23	.852	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 16

FLA2@

SEA6

Mar 24

SEA4@

FLA5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+11048%

FLA-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat SEA 5-4. N. Gregor led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
SEA	0	0	4	0	0	4
FLA	0	1	3	0	1	5

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · FLA won 2

SEA

FLA

Play-by-play · 321 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
SEA 0·FLA 1
SO·0:00
End of OT
SEA 0·FLA 1
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
SEA 0·FLA 1
SO·0:00
Jordan Eberle Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
SEA 0·FLA 1
SO·0:00
Matthew Tkachuk Backhand saved by Joey Daccord
·
SEA 0·FLA 1
SO·0:00
Bobby McMann Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
SEA 0·FLA 1
SO·0:00
Vinnie Hinostroza Goal Backhand
SEA 0·FLA 1
SO·0:00
Freddy Gaudreau Backhand saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
SEA 0·FLA 1
SO·0:00
Sam Bennett Snap Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
SEA 0·FLA 1
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
SEA 0·FLA 1
OT·5:00
End of OT
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·4:55
Jordan Eberle Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·4:54
Chandler Stephenson shot blocked by Evan Rodrigues
·
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·4:43
Takeaway by Chandler Stephenson
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·4:42
Seth Jones Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·4:40
Evan Rodrigues Snap Shot Wide Right
·
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·4:28
Evan Rodrigues faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·4:28
Off-side
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·4:20
Takeaway by Aaron Ekblad
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·3:42
Matthew Tkachuk Backhand saved by Joey Daccord
·
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·3:36
Matthew Tkachuk hit Vince Dunn
·
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·3:20
Chandler Stephenson Tip-In Wide Left
·
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·2:45
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·2:45
Goalie Stopped
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·2:42
Vinnie Hinostroza Snap Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·1:47
Giveaway by Carter Verhaeghe
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·1:44
Takeaway by Carter Verhaeghe
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·1:24
Vince Dunn Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·0:36
Sam Bennett Backhand saved by Joey Daccord
·
SEA 4·FLA 4
OT·0:19
Matthew Tkachuk Slap Shot Wide Right
·
SEA 4·FLA 4

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 5.5·SEA +110/FLA -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers held off Seattle Kraken, 5–4.

SEA +1.5 cashed (FLA won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jordan Eberle · SEA22:120.6748.6%49.4%22:12 TOI · 0.67 iXG · 48.6% CF · 49.4% xGF
Bobby McMann · SEA22:480.6452.2%50.3%22:48 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 52.2% CF · 50.3% xGF
Matthew Tkachuk · FLA20:180.6054.5%61.1%20:18 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 54.5% CF · 61.1% xGF
Matty Beniers · SEA23:060.4548.4%56.9%23:06 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 48.4% CF · 56.9% xGF
Sam Bennett · FLA19:060.4553.1%59.0%19:06 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 53.1% CF · 59.0% xGF
#847939310:420.4348.0%69.5%10:42 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 48.0% CF · 69.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Joey Daccord · SEA21–4.875-0.6321–4 · .875 SV% · -0.63 GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky · FLA23–4.852-0.8423–4 · .852 SV% · -0.84 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.2%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
59.7%
P(FLA win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.7%
P(FLA win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
60.9%
P(FLA win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at FLA?: The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

FLA vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

Brady TkachukFLA
3.1± 2.4high
Bobby McMannSEA
3.0± 1.8high
Sam BennettFLA
2.7± 2.1high

Goals

Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Cole ReinhardtFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Matthew TkachukFLA
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high
Matthew TkachukFLA
1.1± 1.4high
Sam ReinhartFLA
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Seattle KrakenFlorida Panthers

Elsewhere in the NHL