NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3STL

WSH

35-28-9

STL

29-30-11

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSTL -105

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues held off Washington Capitals, 3–0.

STL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

Anthony Beauvillier

LW · #72

0Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Jonatan Berggren

RW · #29

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

WSH35-28-9

STL29-30-11

WSH35-28-9STL29-30-11

WSH

35-28-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

STL

29-30-11

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 6

STL1@

WSH6

Mar 25

WSH0@

STL3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH-11553%

STL-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat WSH 3-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	0	0	0	0
STL	0	1	2	3

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · STL won 2

WSH

STL

Play-by-play · 292 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 0·STL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 0·STL 3
3rd·19:19
Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
WSH 0·STL 3
3rd·19:19
Jordan Kyrou Goal (17) Backhand, assists: none
WSH 0·STL 3
3rd·19:12
Takeaway by Jordan Kyrou
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·19:11
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·19:11
Icing
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·19:09
Pius Suter Backhand Wide Right
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·18:39
Tom Wilson Tip-In High and Wide Right
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·18:25
Pius Suter faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·18:25
Goalie Stopped
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·18:22
Jakob Chychrun Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·18:12
Jimmy Snuggerud shot blocked by Dylan Strome
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·18:07
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·18:07
Puck in Netting
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·18:04
Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Philip Broberg
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·17:21
Alex Ovechkin Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·17:19
Takeaway by Alex Ovechkin
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·17:12
Giveaway by Alex Ovechkin
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·17:05
Pius Suter Tip-In saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·16:36
Dylan Holloway Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
· ·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·16:35
Colton Parayko Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·16:32
Pavel Buchnevich faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·16:32
Goalie Stopped
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·16:26
Jack Finley Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·16:16
Pius Suter faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·16:16
Goalie Stopped
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·16:14
Alex Ovechkin Snap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·15:55
Dylan Strome shot blocked by Philip Broberg
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·15:50
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
WSH 0·STL 2

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 5.5·WSH -115/STL -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
SKATE MPH24.399
Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Philip BrobergSTL · D
BURSTS15898
Jimmy SnuggerudSTL · RW
SHOT MPH95.697
Jakob ChychrunWSH · D
DIST MI264.495

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

STL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

Alex OvechkinWSH
3.5± 1.4high
Dylan HollowaySTL
3.1± 1.3high
Jimmy SnuggerudSTL
2.6± 2.1high

Goals

Robert ThomasSTL
0.7± 1.2high
Alex OvechkinWSH
0.5± 1.1high
Tom WilsonWSH
0.5± 0.7high

Points

Robert ThomasSTL
1.4± 1.1high
Dylan HollowaySTL
1.2± 1.1high
Jimmy SnuggerudSTL
1.0± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands