Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3STL

WSH

35-28-9

STL

29-30-11

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSTL -105

WSH · top performer

Jakob Chychrun

D · #6

0Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Jimmy Snuggerud

RW · #21

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	12:34
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	0	0	1	1	0	15	15:50
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	9:20
H. LapierreC · #29	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	7:05
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	0	-2	0	2	1	5	13:54
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	17:35
I. MiroshnichenkoLW · #63	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	9:22
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	14:31
A. ProtasC · #21	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	21:36
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	17:54
D. StromeC · #17	0	0	-2	1	0	2	0	16:57
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	0	-1	3	2	1	4	19:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	0	-2	4	0	1	2	23:08
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	-1	1	3	4	0	17:45
C. HutsonD · #44	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	21:12
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	20:35
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	-2	1	0	3	0	16:32
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	26	2	24	.923	58:07

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	13:06
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:31
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:53
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	13:17
D. HollowayLW · #81	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	18:02
J. KyrouRW · #25	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:01
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	14:32
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	1	0	1	5	1	0	2	16:27
O. StenbergC · #28	1	0	1	1	2	1	5	11:14
P. SuterC · #22	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:33
R. ThomasC · #18	0	0	1	1	0	0	4	14:08
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	14:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	1	2	1	0	2	0	22:27
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	20:21
J. HollD · #4	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	15:30
T. LindsteinD · #41	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	15:20
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	1	2	1	1	2	0	20:51
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	21:49

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	21	0	21	1.000	59:19

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 6

STL1@

WSH6

Mar 25

WSH0@

STL3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH-11553%

STL-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 56 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat WSH 3-0. J. Snuggerud led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	0	0	0	0
STL	0	1	2	3

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · STL won 2

WSH

STL

Play-by-play · 292 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 0·STL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 0·STL 3
3rd·19:19
Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
WSH 0·STL 3
3rd·19:19
Jordan Kyrou Goal (17) Backhand, assists: none
WSH 0·STL 3
3rd·19:12
Takeaway by Jordan Kyrou
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·19:11
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·19:11
Icing
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·19:09
Pius Suter Backhand Wide Right
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·18:39
Tom Wilson Tip-In High and Wide Right
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·18:25
Pius Suter faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·18:25
Goalie Stopped
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·18:22
Jakob Chychrun Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·18:12
Jimmy Snuggerud shot blocked by Dylan Strome
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·18:07
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·18:07
Puck in Netting
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·18:04
Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Philip Broberg
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·17:21
Alex Ovechkin Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·17:19
Takeaway by Alex Ovechkin
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·17:12
Giveaway by Alex Ovechkin
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·17:05
Pius Suter Tip-In saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·16:36
Dylan Holloway Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
· ·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·16:35
Colton Parayko Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·16:32
Pavel Buchnevich faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·16:32
Goalie Stopped
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·16:26
Jack Finley Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·16:16
Pius Suter faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·16:16
Goalie Stopped
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·16:14
Alex Ovechkin Snap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·15:55
Dylan Strome shot blocked by Philip Broberg
·
WSH 0·STL 2
3rd·15:50
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
WSH 0·STL 2

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 5.5·WSH -115/STL -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues held off Washington Capitals, 3–0.

STL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.8%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
52.8%
P(STL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.8%
P(STL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.8%
P(STL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Washington CapitalsSt. Louis Blues

Elsewhere in the NHL