Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CBJ

CBJ

34-21-11

PHI

31-23-12

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriesCBJ lead series 2-0VegasCBJ -142

CBJ · top performer

Kirill Marchenko

RW · #86

1Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Alex Bump

LW · #20

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	21:20
A. FantilliC · #19	0	1	0	3	1	1	7	19:16
C. GarlandRW · #83	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:10
D. HeinenLW · #43	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	8:28
B. JennerC · #38	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	11:56
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	12:27
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:07
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	1	0	0	5	1	1	2	22:06
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	17:31
S. MonahanC · #23	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	16:39
M. OlivierRW · #24	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	14:25
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	-1	0	3	1	2	14:06

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	23:02
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	16:08
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	26:37
D. SeversonD · #78	0	1	0	1	2	1	4	23:18
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	27:13
E. ZamulaD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	7:20

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	19	1	18	.947	64:51

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	12:01
A. BumpLW · #20	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:34
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	13:09
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:16
C. DvorakC · #22	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	19:47
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	12:29
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	11:55
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	0	4	2	7	10:51
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	22:05
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:18
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	21:23
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	22:15

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	11:26
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	25:16
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	-1	1	1	4	2	24:35
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	24:08
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	12:42
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	20:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	28	1	27	.964	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CBJ lead series 2-0

Jan 29

PHI3@

CBJ5

Mar 14

CBJ2@

PHI1today

Mar 24

CBJ3@

PHI2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJ-14259%

PHI+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 33 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat PHI 2-1. K. Marchenko led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
CBJ	1	0	0	0	1	2
PHI	1	0	0	0	0	1

Period scoring

CBJ won 1 · PHI won 0

CBJ

PHI

Play-by-play · 341 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
CBJ 1·PHI 0
SO·0:00
End of OT
CBJ 1·PHI 0
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
CBJ 1·PHI 0
SO·0:00
Kirill Marchenko Goal Backhand
CBJ 1·PHI 0
SO·0:00
Travis Konecny Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 1·PHI 0
SO·0:00
Adam Fantilli Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CBJ 1·PHI 0
SO·0:00
Trevor Zegras Backhand saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 1·PHI 0
SO·0:00
Kent Johnson Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CBJ 1·PHI 0
SO·0:00
Matvei Michkov Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 1·PHI 0
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
CBJ 1·PHI 0
OT·5:00
End of OT
CBJ 1·PHI 1
OT·4:58
Rasmus Ristolainen Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 1·PHI 1
OT·4:54
Trevor Zegras shot blocked by Kirill Marchenko
·
CBJ 1·PHI 1
OT·4:33
Matvei Michkov Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 1·PHI 1
OT·4:27
Kirill Marchenko Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 1·PHI 1
OT·2:57
Charlie Coyle shot blocked by Owen Tippett
·
CBJ 1·PHI 1
OT·2:03
Takeaway by Matvei Michkov
CBJ 1·PHI 1
OT·0:34
Owen Tippett Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 1·PHI 1
OT·0:00
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
CBJ 1·PHI 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
CBJ 1·PHI 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CBJ 1·PHI 1
3rd·19:58
Mason Marchment shot blocked by Travis Sanheim
·
CBJ 1·PHI 1
3rd·19:54
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
CBJ 1·PHI 1
3rd·19:54
Icing
CBJ 1·PHI 1
3rd·19:37
Ivan Provorov shot blocked by Rasmus Ristolainen
·
CBJ 1·PHI 1
3rd·19:32
Damon Severson Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CBJ 1·PHI 1
3rd·18:14
Rasmus Ristolainen hit Cole Sillinger
·
CBJ 1·PHI 1
3rd·17:28
Isac Lundeström hit Noah Cates
·
CBJ 1·PHI 1
3rd·16:59
Sean Monahan hit Owen Tippett
·
CBJ 1·PHI 1
3rd·16:39
Giveaway by Conor Garland
CBJ 1·PHI 1

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·CBJ -142/PHI +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 2–1.

PHI +1.5 cashed (CBJ won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Adam Fantilli · CBJ19:300.7361.1%51.1%19:30 TOI · 0.73 iXG · 61.1% CF · 51.1% xGF
Kirill Marchenko · CBJ22:180.6263.0%55.7%22:18 TOI · 0.62 iXG · 63.0% CF · 55.7% xGF
Travis Konecny · PHI22:240.6156.4%54.4%22:24 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 56.4% CF · 54.4% xGF
Kent Johnson · CBJ12:420.5268.0%75.9%12:42 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 68.0% CF · 75.9% xGF
Owen Tippett · PHI21:300.4952.8%50.8%21:30 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 52.8% CF · 50.8% xGF
Matvei Michkov · PHI17:240.4857.6%64.4%17:24 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 57.6% CF · 64.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Dan Vladar · PHI27–1.964+2.1327–1 · .964 SV% · +2.13 GSAx
Jet Greaves · CBJ18–1.947+1.8518–1 · .947 SV% · +1.85 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
54.0%
P(PHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.0%
P(PHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.0%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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