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FINAL+1CBJ
CBJ

CBJ

34-21-11

21
PHI

PHI

31-23-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriesCBJ lead series 2-0VegasCBJ -142

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 2–1.

PHI +1.5 cashed (CBJ won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CBJ · top performer

CBJ
Adam Fantilli

Adam Fantilli

C · #19

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

PHI
A

Alex Bump

LW · #20

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
2
1
CBJ34-21-11PHI31-23-12
CBJ

CBJ

34-21-11

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PHI

PHI

31-23-12

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

PIM

9

Season series

CBJ lead series 2-0

Jan 29PHIPHI3@CBJCBJ5
Mar 14CBJCBJ2@PHIPHI1today
Mar 24CBJCBJ3@PHIPHI2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJCBJ-14259%
PHIPHI+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat PHI 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
CBJ100012
PHI100001

Period scoring

CBJ won 1 · PHI won 0

1
1

1

0
0

2

0
0

3

0
0

OT

1
0

SO

CBJ
PHI

Play-by-play · 341 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    CBJ 1·PHI 0

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    CBJ 1·PHI 0

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    CBJ 1·PHI 0

  4. SO·0:00

    Kirill Marchenko Goal Backhand

    CBJ 1·PHI 0

  5. SO·0:00

    Travis Konecny Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 0

  6. SO·0:00

    Adam Fantilli Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 0

  7. SO·0:00

    Trevor Zegras Backhand saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 0

  8. SO·0:00

    Kent Johnson Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 0

  9. SO·0:00

    Matvei Michkov Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 0

  10. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    CBJ 1·PHI 0

  11. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  12. OT·4:58

    Rasmus Ristolainen Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  13. OT·4:54

    Trevor Zegras shot blocked by Kirill Marchenko

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  14. OT·4:33

    Matvei Michkov Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  15. OT·4:27

    Kirill Marchenko Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  16. OT·2:57

    Charlie Coyle shot blocked by Owen Tippett

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  17. OT·2:03

    Takeaway by Matvei Michkov

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  18. OT·0:34

    Owen Tippett Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  19. OT·0:00

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Charlie Coyle

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  20. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  21. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  22. 3rd·19:58

    Mason Marchment shot blocked by Travis Sanheim

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  23. 3rd·19:54

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Sean Monahan

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  24. 3rd·19:54

    Icing

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  25. 3rd·19:37

    Ivan Provorov shot blocked by Rasmus Ristolainen

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  26. 3rd·19:32

    Damon Severson Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  27. 3rd·18:14

    Rasmus Ristolainen hit Cole Sillinger

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  28. 3rd·17:28

    Isac Lundeström hit Noah Cates

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  29. 3rd·16:59

    Sean Monahan hit Owen Tippett

    ·

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

  30. 3rd·16:39

    Giveaway by Conor Garland

    CBJ 1·PHI 1

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

28

Shots

19

0.0

PCT

0.0

15

PIM

9

32

Faceoffs W

29

18

Blocks

19

17

Giveaways

16

6

Takeaways

4

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·CBJ -142/PHI +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ivan ProvorovCBJ · D
    DIST MI299.999+
  • Kirill MarchenkoCBJ · RW
    BURSTS30199
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Zach WerenskiCBJ · D
    DIST MI289.198
  • Adam FantilliCBJ · C
    DIST MI256.696

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR