Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CAR

CAR

42-18-6

40-21-4

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-1VegasTB -130

CAR · top performer

Andrei Svechnikov

RW · #37

2Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Yanni Gourde

C · #37

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	1	1	1	2	2	0	2	20:28
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	17:56
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	9:13
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	14:19
T. HallLW · #71	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	14:17
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	9:53
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	-1	2	0	0	7	16:14
J. MartinookLW · #48	1	0	2	1	2	0	0	13:45
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	10:13
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	13:35
L. StankovenC · #22	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:51
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	1	1	6	4	0	2	19:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	23:10
K. MillerD · #19	0	1	1	2	3	2	0	24:05
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	14:03
M. ReillyD · #6	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	12:31
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	24:16
S. WalkerD · #26	0	1	1	2	3	3	2	20:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	19	2	17	.895	59:34

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	-2	0	3	0	0	14:19
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	18:30
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	1	2	1	5	8:20
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	15:40
Y. GourdeC · #37	1	0	0	3	1	0	2	15:20
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:13
B. HagelLW · #38	0	0	-1	3	0	0	2	19:22
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	12:03
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	0	-1	5	2	0	0	20:00
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	9:57
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	13:02
B. PointC · #21	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:35

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	-2	0	3	1	0	16:01
C. D'AstousD · #51	1	0	1	1	4	2	0	18:03
V. HedmanD · #77	0	1	-1	1	1	4	0	18:27
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	18:11
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	20:55
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	23:14

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	34	3	31	.912	58:48

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CAR wins series 2-1

Dec 21

CAR4@

TB6

Feb 27

TB4@

CAR5

Mar 14

CAR4@

TB2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR+11048%

TB-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 33 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat TB 4-2. A. Svechnikov led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	2	0	2	4
TB	0	2	0	2

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · TB won 1

CAR

Play-by-play · 286 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 4·TB 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 4·TB 2
3rd·19:44
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
CAR 4·TB 2
3rd·19:44
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CAR 4·TB 2
3rd·19:43
Sean Walker hit Jake Guentzel
·
CAR 4·TB 2
3rd·19:35
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Sean Walker
·
CAR 4·TB 2
3rd·18:55
Jordan Staal hit Jake Guentzel
·
CAR 4·TB 2
3rd·18:35
Jordan Staal Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 4·TB 2
3rd·18:29
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
CAR 4·TB 2
3rd·18:29
Timeout - Home
CAR 4·TB 2
3rd·18:29
Logan Stankoven Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (22)
·
CAR 4·TB 2
3rd·18:23
Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·17:23
Andrei Svechnikov Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·17:21
Takeaway by Andrei Svechnikov
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·17:17
Jordan Staal hit Erik Cernak
·
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·17:08
Jalen Chatfield shot blocked by Victor Hedman
·
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·17:04
Jordan Staal Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·17:01
Jordan Martinook Deflected Wide Right
·
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·15:49
Oliver Bjorkstrand Backhand Off Crossbar
·
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·15:48
Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Corey Perry
·
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·15:02
Jordan Martinook shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
·
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·14:51
Jaccob Slavin shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
·
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·14:12
William Carrier hit Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·13:54
Sean Walker hit Yanni Gourde
·
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·13:42
Taylor Hall Tip-In Wide Right
·
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·13:26
Nikita Kucherov hit Jaccob Slavin
·
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·13:21
Giveaway by Logan Stankoven
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·13:03
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
·
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·12:54
Andrei Svechnikov Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
CAR 3·TB 2
3rd·12:30
Andrei Svechnikov hit Gage Goncalves
·
CAR 3·TB 2

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR +110/TB -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Tampa Bay Lightning and beat them, 4–2.

CAR +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Nikita Kucherov · TBL20:060.8341.0%55.7%20:06 TOI · 0.83 iXG · 41.0% CF · 55.7% xGF
Jackson Blake · CAR18:060.6162.9%55.0%18:06 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 62.9% CF · 55.0% xGF
Andrei Svechnikov · CAR19:240.5651.6%46.7%19:24 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 51.6% CF · 46.7% xGF
Taylor Hall · CAR14:180.4659.3%54.6%14:18 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 59.3% CF · 54.6% xGF
William Carrier · CAR9:240.4158.3%83.2%9:24 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 58.3% CF · 83.2% xGF
Jordan Staal · CAR13:420.4084.6%78.3%13:42 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 84.6% CF · 78.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Andrei Vasilevskiy · TBL31–3.912+0.4931–3 · .912 SV% · +0.49 GSAx
Frederik Andersen · CAR17–2.895+0.3317–2 · .895 SV% · +0.33 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.4%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
58.4%
P(TB win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.4%
P(TB win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.4%
P(TB win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesTampa Bay Lightning

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