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FINAL+2CAR
CAR

CAR

42-18-6

42
TB

TB

40-21-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-1VegasTB -130

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Tampa Bay Lightning and beat them, 4–2.

CAR +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

CAR
Sebastian Aho

Sebastian Aho

C · #20

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

TB · top performer

TB
Gage Goncalves

Gage Goncalves

C · #93

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
2
CAR42-18-6TB40-21-4
CAR

CAR

42-18-6

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
TB

TB

40-21-4

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

PIM

11

Season series

CAR wins series 2-1

Dec 21CARCAR4@TBTB6
Feb 27TBTB4@CARCAR5
Mar 14CARCAR4@TBTB2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CARCAR+11048%
TBTB-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat TB 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CAR2024
TB0202

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · TB won 1

2
0

1

0
2

2

2
0

3

CAR
TB

Play-by-play · 286 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CAR 4·TB 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CAR 4·TB 2

  3. 3rd·19:44

    Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Yanni Gourde

    ·

    CAR 4·TB 2

  4. 3rd·19:44

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    CAR 4·TB 2

  5. 3rd·19:43

    Sean Walker hit Jake Guentzel

    ·

    CAR 4·TB 2

  6. 3rd·19:35

    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Sean Walker

    ·

    CAR 4·TB 2

  7. 3rd·18:55

    Jordan Staal hit Jake Guentzel

    ·

    CAR 4·TB 2

  8. 3rd·18:35

    Jordan Staal Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 4·TB 2

  9. 3rd·18:29

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli

    ·

    CAR 4·TB 2

  10. 3rd·18:29

    Timeout - Home

    CAR 4·TB 2

  11. 3rd·18:29

    Logan Stankoven Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (22)

    ·

    CAR 4·TB 2

  12. 3rd·18:23

    Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

  13. 3rd·17:23

    Andrei Svechnikov Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

  14. 3rd·17:21

    Takeaway by Andrei Svechnikov

    CAR 3·TB 2

  15. 3rd·17:17

    Jordan Staal hit Erik Cernak

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

  16. 3rd·17:08

    Jalen Chatfield shot blocked by Victor Hedman

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

  17. 3rd·17:04

    Jordan Staal Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

  18. 3rd·17:01

    Jordan Martinook Deflected Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

  19. 3rd·15:49

    Oliver Bjorkstrand Backhand Off Crossbar

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

  20. 3rd·15:48

    Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Corey Perry

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

  21. 3rd·15:02

    Jordan Martinook shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

  22. 3rd·14:51

    Jaccob Slavin shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

  23. 3rd·14:12

    William Carrier hit Oliver Bjorkstrand

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

  24. 3rd·13:54

    Sean Walker hit Yanni Gourde

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

  25. 3rd·13:42

    Taylor Hall Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

  26. 3rd·13:26

    Nikita Kucherov hit Jaccob Slavin

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

  27. 3rd·13:21

    Giveaway by Logan Stankoven

    CAR 3·TB 2

  28. 3rd·13:03

    Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

  29. 3rd·12:54

    Andrei Svechnikov Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

  30. 3rd·12:30

    Andrei Svechnikov hit Gage Goncalves

    ·

    CAR 3·TB 2

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

TB

Home

35

Shots

19

0.0

PCT

0.0

13

PIM

11

22

Faceoffs W

19

10

Blocks

14

13

Giveaways

14

9

Takeaways

4

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR +110/TB -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4696
  • Sebastian AhoCAR · C
    DIST MI44.795
  • Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
    BURSTS3995
  • Seth JarvisCAR · C
    DIST MI39.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR