
CAR
42-18-6

TB
40-21-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
arolina Hurricanes went into Tampa Bay Lightning and beat them, 4–2.
CAR +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CAR · top performer

Sebastian Aho
C · #20
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
TB · top performer

Gage Goncalves
C · #93
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


CAR
42-18-6
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
TB
40-21-4
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
13
PIM
11
Season series
CAR wins series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TB -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
CAR beat TB 4-2.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| TB | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Period scoring
CAR won 2 · TB won 1
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 286 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 4·TB 2
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 4·TB 2
- 3rd·19:44
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
CAR 4·TB 2
- 3rd·19:44
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CAR 4·TB 2
- 3rd·19:43
Sean Walker hit Jake Guentzel
·
CAR 4·TB 2
- 3rd·19:35
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Sean Walker
·
CAR 4·TB 2
- 3rd·18:55
Jordan Staal hit Jake Guentzel
·
CAR 4·TB 2
- 3rd·18:35
Jordan Staal Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 4·TB 2
- 3rd·18:29
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
CAR 4·TB 2
- 3rd·18:29
Timeout - Home
CAR 4·TB 2
- 3rd·18:29
Logan Stankoven Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (22)
·
CAR 4·TB 2
- 3rd·18:23
Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·17:23
Andrei Svechnikov Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·17:21
Takeaway by Andrei Svechnikov
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·17:17
Jordan Staal hit Erik Cernak
·
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·17:08
Jalen Chatfield shot blocked by Victor Hedman
·
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·17:04
Jordan Staal Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·17:01
Jordan Martinook Deflected Wide Right
·
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·15:49
Oliver Bjorkstrand Backhand Off Crossbar
·
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·15:48
Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Corey Perry
·
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·15:02
Jordan Martinook shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
·
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·14:51
Jaccob Slavin shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
·
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·14:12
William Carrier hit Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·13:54
Sean Walker hit Yanni Gourde
·
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·13:42
Taylor Hall Tip-In Wide Right
·
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·13:26
Nikita Kucherov hit Jaccob Slavin
·
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·13:21
Giveaway by Logan Stankoven
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·13:03
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
·
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·12:54
Andrei Svechnikov Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
CAR 3·TB 2
- 3rd·12:30
Andrei Svechnikov hit Gage Goncalves
·
CAR 3·TB 2
Team stats
CAR
Away
Stat
TB
Home
35
Shots
19
0.0
PCT
0.0
13
PIM
11
22
Faceoffs W
19
10
Blocks
14
13
Giveaways
14
9
Takeaways
4
Betting line
TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR +110/TB -130
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
Sean WalkerCAR · DSKATE MPH22.998
Taylor HallCAR · LWBURSTS4696
Sebastian AhoCAR · CDIST MI44.795
Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LWBURSTS3995
Seth JarvisCAR · CDIST MI39.992
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.2%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-130
Close price
-130
Open no-vig
54.3%
Close no-vig
54.3%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss