NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2SJ

32-26-6

MTL

36-19-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriesSJ wins series 2-0VegasMTL -155

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 4–2.

SJ +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

3Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

SJ32-26-6

MTL36-19-10

SJ32-26-6MTL36-19-10

32-26-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

MTL

36-19-10

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

SJ wins series 2-0

Mar 4

MTL5@

SJ7

Mar 14

SJ4@

MTL2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+13043%

MTL-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat MTL 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	1	2	1	4
MTL	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

SJ won 2 · MTL won 0

MTL

Play-by-play · 335 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:56
Collin Graf Snap Shot Wide Right
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:52
William Eklund shot blocked by Lane Hutson
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:51
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:43
Lane Hutson hit William Eklund
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:33
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:33
Puck in Crowd
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:27
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:27
Icing
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:23
Kiefer Sherwood Snap Shot Wide Left
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:21
Giveaway by Ivan Demidov
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:13
Phillip Danault shot blocked by Mario Ferraro
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:00
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:00
Goalie Stopped
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:00
Lane Hutson Snap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·18:45
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·18:45
Icing
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·18:18
Oliver Kapanen faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·18:18
Puck in Crowd
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·17:57
Oliver Kapanen faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·17:57
Macklin Celebrini Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Collin Graf (21), Barclay Goodrow (6)
· ·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·17:51
Giveaway by Nick Suzuki
SJ 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:16
Lane Hutson Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
SJ 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:14
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
SJ 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:14
Icing
SJ 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:08
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Alex Newhook
·
SJ 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:08
Icing
SJ 3·MTL 2
3rd·16:43
Kiefer Sherwood Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
SJ 3·MTL 2
3rd·16:38
Giveaway by Alexander Wennberg
SJ 3·MTL 2

Team stats

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +130/MTL -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Lane HutsonMTL · D
DIST MI71.899+
Josh AndersonMTL · RW
BURSTS7699+
Mike MathesonMTL · D
DIST MI62.999
Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
DIST MI56.699
Ivan DemidovMTL · RW
DIST MI49.298

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

MTL vs SJ.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Macklin CelebriniSJ
3.4± 1.1high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high
Juraj SlafkovskyMTL
2.4± 1.6high

Goals

Macklin CelebriniSJ
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Macklin CelebriniSJ
1.4± 1.4high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.9± 0.7high
Lane HutsonMTL
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands