Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at MTL?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2SJ

32-26-6

MTL

36-19-10

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriesSJ wins series 2-0VegasMTL -155

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

3Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	2	1	2	3	1	1	2	22:11
I. ChernyshovLW · #92	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:28
W. EklundLW · #72	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	23:57
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	10:54
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	13:15
C. GrafRW · #51	1	2	2	3	0	0	0	17:10
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	13:16
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:10
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	-1	3	5	0	0	16:07
W. SmithC · #2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:14
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:16
A. WennbergC · #21	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	16:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	0	0	1	4	2	21:31
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	18:08
M. FerraroD · #38	1	0	2	2	2	1	0	23:18
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	2	1	1	2	2	0	17:48
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	1	2	2	1	0	16:44
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	20:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NedeljkovicG · #33	27	2	25	.926	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	9:25
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	13:59
C. CaufieldRW · #13	1	0	-1	3	0	0	0	20:14
K. DachC · #77	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	15:02
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	-3	0	2	2	0	13:44
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	16:49
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:19
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:56
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	17:11
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	1	-1	1	2	0	0	21:28
N. SuzukiC · #14	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	22:01
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	11:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:55
N. DobsonD · #53	0	2	1	1	0	1	0	21:29
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	18:21
L. HutsonD · #48	0	0	-3	2	1	2	0	26:12
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	20:50
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	11:14

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	21	3	18	.857	57:29

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SJ wins series 2-0

Mar 4

MTL5@

SJ7

Mar 14

SJ4@

MTL2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+13043%

MTL-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 28 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat MTL 4-2. M. Celebrini led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	1	2	1	4
MTL	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

SJ won 2 · MTL won 0

MTL

Play-by-play · 335 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:56
Collin Graf Snap Shot Wide Right
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:52
William Eklund shot blocked by Lane Hutson
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:51
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:43
Lane Hutson hit William Eklund
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:33
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:33
Puck in Crowd
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:27
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:27
Icing
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:23
Kiefer Sherwood Snap Shot Wide Left
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:21
Giveaway by Ivan Demidov
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:13
Phillip Danault shot blocked by Mario Ferraro
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:00
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:00
Goalie Stopped
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·19:00
Lane Hutson Snap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·18:45
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·18:45
Icing
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·18:18
Oliver Kapanen faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·18:18
Puck in Crowd
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·17:57
Oliver Kapanen faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·17:57
Macklin Celebrini Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Collin Graf (21), Barclay Goodrow (6)
· ·
SJ 4·MTL 2
3rd·17:51
Giveaway by Nick Suzuki
SJ 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:16
Lane Hutson Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
SJ 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:14
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
SJ 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:14
Icing
SJ 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:08
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Alex Newhook
·
SJ 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:08
Icing
SJ 3·MTL 2
3rd·16:43
Kiefer Sherwood Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
SJ 3·MTL 2
3rd·16:38
Giveaway by Alexander Wennberg
SJ 3·MTL 2

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +130/MTL -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 4–2.

SJ +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Collin Graf · SJS17:181.0539.4%43.9%17:18 TOI · 1.05 iXG · 39.4% CF · 43.9% xGF
Kirby Dach · MTL15:000.9856.8%64.3%15:00 TOI · 0.98 iXG · 56.8% CF · 64.3% xGF
Kiefer Sherwood · SJS16:180.6265.6%54.4%16:18 TOI · 0.62 iXG · 65.6% CF · 54.4% xGF
Oliver Kapanen · MTL15:060.3842.9%54.0%15:06 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 42.9% CF · 54.0% xGF
Zachary Bolduc · MTL14:060.3750.0%56.6%14:06 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 50.0% CF · 56.6% xGF
Alexandre Texier · MTL11:360.3569.6%79.9%11:36 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 69.6% CF · 79.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Alex Nedeljkovic · SJS25–2.926+0.9925–2 · .926 SV% · +0.99 GSAx
Jakub Dobes · MTL18–3.857-0.2018–3 · .857 SV% · -0.20 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.0%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
62.0%
P(MTL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.0%
P(MTL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.0%
P(MTL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at MTL?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

San Jose SharksMontreal Canadiens

Elsewhere in the NHL