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FINAL+1PIT
PIT

PIT

33-18-15

43
UTA

UTA

34-27-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasUTAH -155

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins went into Utah Mammoth and beat them, 4–3.

PIT +1.5 cashed (UTA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Egor Chinakhov

Egor Chinakhov

RW · #59

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

UTA
Dylan Guenther

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Utah Mammoth · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
3
PIT33-18-15UTA34-27-6
PIT

PIT

33-18-15

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
UTA

UTA

34-27-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

12

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 14UTAUTA5@PITPIT4
Mar 15PITPIT4@UTAUTA3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+13043%
UTAUTA-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat UTA 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PIT0224
UTA2013

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · UTA won 1

0
2

1

2
0

2

2
1

3

PIT
UTA

Play-by-play · 319 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Mikhail Sergachev shot blocked by Parker Wotherspoon

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  4. 3rd·19:49

    Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Blake Lizotte

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  5. 3rd·19:49

    Goalie Stopped

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  6. 3rd·19:49

    Nick Schmaltz Snap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  7. 3rd·19:43

    Mikhail Sergachev shot blocked by Connor Dewar

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  8. 3rd·19:38

    Clayton Keller shot blocked by Bryan Rust

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  9. 3rd·19:32

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Noel Acciari

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  10. 3rd·19:32

    Icing

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  11. 3rd·19:25

    Barrett Hayton Tip-In saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  12. 3rd·19:17

    Dylan Guenther Slap Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  13. 3rd·18:53

    Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Noel Acciari

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  14. 3rd·18:53

    Goalie Stopped

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  15. 3rd·18:52

    Dylan Guenther Slap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  16. 3rd·18:49

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Blake Lizotte

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  17. 3rd·18:49

    Goalie Stopped

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  18. 3rd·18:48

    Kevin Stenlund Tip-In saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  19. 3rd·18:35

    Blake Lizotte faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  20. 3rd·18:35

    Timeout - Home

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  21. 3rd·18:35

    Goalie Stopped

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  22. 3rd·18:33

    Dylan Guenther Snap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  23. 3rd·18:29

    Barrett Hayton Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  24. 3rd·17:44

    Giveaway by Ryan Shea

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  25. 3rd·17:40

    Noel Acciari faceoff won against Barrett Hayton

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  26. 3rd·17:40

    Icing

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  27. 3rd·17:33

    Blake Lizotte faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  28. 3rd·17:33

    Puck in Netting

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  29. 3rd·17:30

    Michael Carcone Snap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

  30. 3rd·17:24

    Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Thomas Novak

    ·

    PIT 4·UTA 3

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

23

Shots

29

33.3

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

12

26

Faceoffs W

33

17

Blocks

8

19

Giveaways

12

1

Takeaways

7

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +130/UTA -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE
  • Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
    SHOT MPH94.799
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897
  • Ben KindelPIT · C
    SHOT MPH87.584
  • Blake LizottePIT · C
    BURSTS2483
  • Kris LetangPIT · D
    SHOT MPH91.775

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · UTA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR