Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at NYI?

The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYI

CGY

26-33-7

NYI

38-24-5

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNYI -148

CGY · top performer

Mikael Backlund

C · #11

1Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Simon Holmstrom

RW · #92

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	17:07
J. BeecherC · #18	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	9:44
B. ColemanLW · #20	1	0	2	4	1	0	0	19:23
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	17:47
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:45
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	17:54
M. GridinRW · #92	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:23
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	-1	0	0	1	2	8:05
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	-1	3	0	2	0	17:30
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	-1	4	1	0	0	16:30
R. StromeC · #22	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	18:03
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	10:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	23:13
J. HanleyD · #44	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:58
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	17:40
O. MaattaD · #3	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	21:00
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	19:14
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	1	3	1	3	0	19:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. WolfG · #32	17	0	17	1.000	38:29
D. CooleyG · #1	10	3	7	.700	18:43

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	19:07
C. CizikasC · #53	1	0	0	2	4	1	0	11:56
A. DuclairLW · #11	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	12:58
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	15:10
S. HolmstromRW · #92	2	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:30
B. HorvatC · #14	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	20:01
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	-1	2	4	1	0	16:24
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	10:41
J. PageauC · #44	0	1	1	3	3	1	0	17:04
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:06
C. RitchieC · #64	0	0	-1	1	0	1	2	13:55
B. SchennC · #10	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	14:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	21:42
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	17:18
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	21:32
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	21:06
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	0	1	2	0	4	0	22:06
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	-2	1	1	0	2	15:07

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RittichG · #33	32	2	30	.938	59:45

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 17

NYI2@

CGY4

Mar 14

CGY2@

NYI3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+12445%

NYI-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat CGY 3-2. S. Holmstrom led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	0	0	2	2
NYI	3	0	0	3

Period scoring

CGY won 1 · NYI won 1

CGY

NYI

Play-by-play · 281 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·19:43
Zayne Parekh Snap Shot saved by David Rittich
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·18:54
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·18:54
Puck in Benches
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·18:14
Giveaway by Emil Heineman
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·17:38
Zayne Parekh Slap Shot saved by David Rittich
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·17:06
Giveaway by Olli Määttä
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·16:55
Giveaway by Olli Määttä
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·16:53
Anders Lee hit Olli Maatta
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·16:49
Matt Coronato shot blocked by Scott Mayfield
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·16:20
Giveaway by Olli Määttä
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·15:54
Victor Olofsson Wrist Shot saved by David Rittich
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·15:44
Tony DeAngelo Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·15:37
Brayden Schenn hit Victor Olofsson
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·15:16
Zayne Parekh Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:48
Yegor Sharangovich faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:48
Puck in Netting
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:46
Zayne Parekh shot blocked by Anthony Duclair
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:41
Ryan Strome faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:41
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:38
Blake Coleman Wrist Shot saved by David Rittich
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:18
Mikael Backlund shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:09
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:09
Goalie Stopped
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:07
Mathew Barzal Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:07
Giveaway by Dustin Wolf
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·13:59
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Yegor Sharangovich
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·13:59
Off-side
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·13:29
Giveaway by Mikael Backlund
CGY 2·NYI 3

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +124/NYI -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off Calgary Flames, 3–2.

CGY +1.5 cashed (NYI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Blake Coleman · CGY19:360.6573.8%65.6%19:36 TOI · 0.65 iXG · 73.8% CF · 65.6% xGF
Yegor Sharangovich · CGY16:360.6145.7%42.9%16:36 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 45.7% CF · 42.9% xGF
Simon Holmstrom · NYI15:180.5233.3%39.8%15:18 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 33.3% CF · 39.8% xGF
Jean-Gabriel Pageau · NYI17:120.4235.0%39.7%17:12 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 35.0% CF · 39.7% xGF
Casey Cizikas · NYI12:000.3940.0%53.8%12:00 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 40.0% CF · 53.8% xGF
Mathew Barzal · NYI19:120.3851.4%60.4%19:12 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 51.4% CF · 60.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Dustin Wolf · CGY17–01.000+1.6017–0 · 1.000 SV% · +1.60 GSAx
David Rittich · NYI30–2.938+0.9930–2 · .938 SV% · +0.99 GSAx
Devin Cooley · CGY7–3.700-0.987–3 · .700 SV% · -0.98 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.3%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
66.3%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
66.3%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
66.3%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at NYI?: The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Calgary FlamesNew York Islanders

Elsewhere in the NHL