NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYI

CGY

26-33-7

NYI

38-24-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNYI -148

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off Calgary Flames, 3–2.

CGY +1.5 cashed (NYI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CGY · top performer

Mikael Backlund

C · #11

1Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Simon Holmstrom

RW · #92

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

CGY26-33-7

NYI38-24-5

CGY26-33-7NYI38-24-5

CGY

26-33-7

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

NYI

38-24-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 17

NYI2@

CGY4

Mar 14

CGY2@

NYI3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+12445%

NYI-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat CGY 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	0	0	2	2
NYI	3	0	0	3

Period scoring

CGY won 1 · NYI won 1

CGY

NYI

Play-by-play · 281 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·19:43
Zayne Parekh Snap Shot saved by David Rittich
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·18:54
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·18:54
Puck in Benches
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·18:14
Giveaway by Emil Heineman
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·17:38
Zayne Parekh Slap Shot saved by David Rittich
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·17:06
Giveaway by Olli Määttä
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·16:55
Giveaway by Olli Määttä
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·16:53
Anders Lee hit Olli Maatta
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·16:49
Matt Coronato shot blocked by Scott Mayfield
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·16:20
Giveaway by Olli Määttä
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·15:54
Victor Olofsson Wrist Shot saved by David Rittich
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·15:44
Tony DeAngelo Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·15:37
Brayden Schenn hit Victor Olofsson
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·15:16
Zayne Parekh Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:48
Yegor Sharangovich faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:48
Puck in Netting
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:46
Zayne Parekh shot blocked by Anthony Duclair
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:41
Ryan Strome faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:41
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:38
Blake Coleman Wrist Shot saved by David Rittich
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:18
Mikael Backlund shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:09
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:09
Goalie Stopped
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:07
Mathew Barzal Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·14:07
Giveaway by Dustin Wolf
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·13:59
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Yegor Sharangovich
·
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·13:59
Off-side
CGY 2·NYI 3
3rd·13:29
Giveaway by Mikael Backlund
CGY 2·NYI 3

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +124/NYI -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
DIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
SHOT MPH100.297

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

NYI vs CGY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

Bo HorvatNYI
2.9± 0.9high
Blake ColemanCGY
2.7± 1.6high
Kyle PalmieriNYI
2.7± 1.6high

Goals

Blake ColemanCGY
0.4± 0.7high
Morgan FrostCGY
0.4± 0.7high
Joel FarabeeCGY
0.3± 0.5high

Points

Matt CoronatoCGY
0.8± 0.8high
Mathew BarzalNYI
0.8± 0.7high
Morgan FrostCGY
0.7± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands