Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at OTT?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2OTT

ANA

36-27-3

OTT

33-23-9

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-0VegasOTT -180

ANA · top performer

Beckett Sennecke

RW · #45

0Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Shane Pinto

C · #12

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	19:33
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	0	-2	0	3	0	2	19:12
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	19:15
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	8:16
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	15:29
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	-2	2	2	0	0	18:55
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	12:01
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:00
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	-1	6	2	0	0	19:54
F. VatranoRW · #77	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	8:05
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	11:05
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	8:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. HellesonD · #14	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:35
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	21:25
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	17:43
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	17:25
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	25:39
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	19:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. HussoG · #33	28	2	26	.929	57:29

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:12
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	17:42
N. CousinsC · #21	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	11:26
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:42
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	7:13
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:45
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:33
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	17:21
S. PintoC · #12	0	2	2	3	1	1	0	17:19
T. StutzleC · #18	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	21:55
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	17:59
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:01

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	1	0	2	2	1	4	0	27:24
D. GilbertD · #6	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	10:35
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	20:15
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	12:20
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	22:55
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	1	0	2	2	2	20:23

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	24	0	24	1.000	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

OTT wins series 2-0

Nov 21

OTT3@

ANA2

Mar 14

ANA0@

OTT2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA+15040%

OTT-18064%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 29 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat ANA 2-0. S. Pinto led the way — 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	0	0	0	0
OTT	0	2	0	2

Period scoring

ANA won 0 · OTT won 1

ANA

OTT

Play-by-play · 337 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·19:58
Tim Washe faceoff won against Dylan Cozens
·
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·19:58
Puck in Crowd
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·19:44
Giveaway by Jeffrey Viel
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·19:35
Ryan Poehling Backhand Wide Right
·
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·19:35
Giveaway by Dylan Cozens
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·19:33
Jeffrey Viel Backhand saved by Linus Ullmark
·
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·18:48
Giveaway by Chris Kreider
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·18:41
Jacob Trouba Snap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·18:24
Artem Zub hit Mikael Granlund
·
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·18:20
Cutter Gauthier shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
·
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·17:55
Ridly Greig faceoff won against Cutter Gauthier
·
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·17:55
Icing
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·17:51
Artem Zub Wrist Shot Wide Left
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·17:29
Drake Batherson hit Ian Moore
·
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·16:37
Dylan Cozens Backhand Wide Left
·
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·16:35
Giveaway by Ville Husso
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·16:29
Giveaway by Chris Kreider
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·16:06
Leo Carlsson faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·16:06
Off-side
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·15:59
Cutter Gauthier shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
·
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·15:48
Leo Carlsson faceoff won against Shane Pinto
·
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·15:48
Off-side
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·15:44
Chris Kreider Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·15:33
Thomas Chabot Backhand saved by Ville Husso
·
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·15:13
Drew Helleson Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·15:06
Giveaway by Warren Foegele
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·14:58
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
ANA 0·OTT 2
3rd·14:58
Goalie Stopped
ANA 0·OTT 2

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA +150/OTT -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Anaheim Ducks, 2–0.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Beckett Sennecke · ANA20:061.3057.5%68.5%20:06 TOI · 1.30 iXG · 57.5% CF · 68.5% xGF
Drake Batherson · OTT17:540.6963.3%78.5%17:54 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 63.3% CF · 78.5% xGF
Tim Stützle · OTT22:120.5551.2%63.9%22:12 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 51.2% CF · 63.9% xGF
Lars Eller · OTT7:180.5235.7%60.8%7:18 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 35.7% CF · 60.8% xGF
Brady Tkachuk · FLA17:540.4563.3%59.1%17:54 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 63.3% CF · 59.1% xGF
Michael Amadio · OTT16:240.4125.8%19.9%16:24 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 25.8% CF · 19.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Linus Ullmark · OTT24–01.000+2.9824–0 · 1.000 SV% · +2.98 GSAx
Ville Husso · ANA26–2.929+1.4426–2 · .929 SV% · +1.44 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.0%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
57.0%
P(OTT win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.0%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.0%
P(OTT win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+150

Close price

+150

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at OTT?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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