Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+1DAL
DET

DET

36-23-8

23
DAL

DAL

42-14-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDAL -192

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Detroit Red Wings, 3–2 in overtime.

DET +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Alex DeBrincat

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

DAL
Wyatt Johnston

Wyatt Johnston

C · #53

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
2
3
DET36-23-8DAL42-14-10
DET

DET

36-23-8

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DAL

DAL

42-14-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

10

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 23DALDAL3@DETDET4
Mar 15DETDET2@DALDAL3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+16038%
DALDAL-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat DET 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
DET00202
DAL11013

Period scoring

DET won 1 · DAL won 3

0
1

1

0
1

2

2
0

3

0
1

OT

DET
DAL

Play-by-play · 294 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·2:06

    Game End

    DET 2·DAL 3

  2. OT·2:06

    End of OT

    DET 2·DAL 3

  3. OT·2:06

    Thomas Harley Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (37)

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 3

  4. OT·1:56

    Marco Kasper Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  5. OT·0:58

    Moritz Seider Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  6. OT·0:00

    J.T. Compher faceoff won against Justin Hryckowian

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  7. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    DET 2·DAL 2

  8. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DET 2·DAL 2

  9. 3rd·19:52

    Colin Blackwell Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  10. 3rd·18:53

    Wyatt Johnston Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  11. 3rd·18:49

    Jason Robertson Wrap-around Off Crossbar

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  12. 3rd·18:42

    Thomas Harley shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  13. 3rd·18:37

    Mavrik Bourque hit John Leonard

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  14. 3rd·18:33

    Lian Bichsel Snap Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  15. 3rd·17:56

    David Perron Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  16. 3rd·17:48

    Justin Faulk Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  17. 3rd·17:44

    Emmitt Finnie faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  18. 3rd·17:44

    High Stick

    DET 2·DAL 2

  19. 3rd·17:39

    Patrick Kane Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  20. 3rd·17:38

    Simon Edvinsson Wrap-around saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  21. 3rd·17:31

    Takeaway by J.T. Compher

    DET 2·DAL 2

  22. 3rd·16:49

    J.T. Compher faceoff won against Colin Blackwell

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  23. 3rd·16:49

    Hand Pass

    DET 2·DAL 2

  24. 3rd·16:44

    Michael Bunting hit Lucas Raymond

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  25. 3rd·16:34

    Colin Blackwell faceoff won against Emmitt Finnie

    ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  26. 3rd·16:34

    Lucas Raymond Goal (21) Batted, assists: Emmitt Finnie (14), Alex DeBrincat (33)

    · ·

    DET 2·DAL 2

  27. 3rd·16:32

    Lucas Raymond Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    DET 1·DAL 2

  28. 3rd·16:24

    Jason Robertson Snap Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    DET 1·DAL 2

  29. 3rd·16:07

    Moritz Seider Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    DET 1·DAL 2

  30. 3rd·16:00

    Moritz Seider Backhand Wide Left

    · ·

    DET 1·DAL 2

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

24

Shots

24

0.0

PCT

25.0

12

PIM

10

28

Faceoffs W

23

17

Blocks

12

13

Giveaways

13

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·DET +160/DAL -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Emmitt FinnieDET · C
    BURSTS19394
  • Justin FaulkDET · D
    BURSTS6990
  • J.T. CompherDET · LW
    BURSTS15888

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR