Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at VAN?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SEA

SEA

30-26-9

VAN

20-38-8

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriesSEA wins series 3-1VegasSEA -142

SEA · top performer

Bobby McMann

C · #74

3Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Evander Kane

LW · #91

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	1	2	4	1	0	0	0	18:31
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	8:56
J. EberleRW · #7	0	3	4	1	0	1	0	16:12
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	13:24
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	9:50
J. McCannLW · #19	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:36
B. McMannC · #74	2	1	1	4	4	0	0	18:04
B. MeyersC · #59	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	13:38
C. StephensonC · #9	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	18:04
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	1	-2	2	3	0	0	19:42
R. WintertonC · #26	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	14:12
S. WrightC · #51	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	12:09

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	2	5	0	1	0	18:09
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	18:52
A. LarssonD · #6	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	19:12
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	-1	1	1	1	2	17:47
B. MontourD · #62	0	2	1	2	0	1	0	23:10
J. OleksiakD · #24	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	20:02

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. GrubauerG · #31	34	2	32	.941	59:30

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	-3	0	0	2	0	15:26
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	17:19
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	13:12
C. DouglasC · #42	0	0	-1	1	5	0	0	10:01
E. KaneLW · #91	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	18:31
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:32
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	1	-1	6	0	0	0	17:58
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	15:32
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	18:07
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	12:26
M. RossiC · #93	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:23
M. SassonC · #63	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	9:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	1	-1	3	0	2	0	22:59
F. HronekD · #17	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	24:16
V. ManciniD · #90	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	17:16
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	24:14
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	9:05
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	-2	1	0	2	4	19:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. TolopiloG · #60	33	5	28	.848	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SEA wins series 3-1

Dec 30

VAN3@

SEA2

Jan 3

SEA4@

VAN3

Mar 1

VAN1@

SEA5

Mar 15

SEA5@

VAN2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA-14259%

VAN+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 30 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat VAN 5-2. B. McMann led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SEA	2	1	2	5
VAN	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

SEA won 3 · VAN won 0

SEA

VAN

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SEA 5·VAN 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SEA 5·VAN 2
3rd·19:40
Teddy Blueger faceoff won against Freddy Gaudreau
·
SEA 5·VAN 2
3rd·19:40
Marco Rossi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (16)
·
SEA 5·VAN 2
3rd·19:38
Giveaway by Jamie Oleksiak
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·19:35
Liam Ohgren Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·19:04
Marco Rossi faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·19:04
Off-side
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·18:37
Berkly Catton Tip-In Wide Left
·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·18:32
Brandon Montour shot blocked by Evander Kane
·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·18:17
Kaapo Kakko hit Elias Pettersson
· ·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·17:49
Filip Hronek hit Ryan Winterton
·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·17:39
Filip Hronek Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·17:24
Ben Meyers Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·17:19
Giveaway by Linus Karlsson
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·16:52
Jordan Eberle Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·16:28
Matty Beniers faceoff won against Teddy Blueger
·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·16:28
Goalie Stopped
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·16:27
Vince Dunn Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·15:44
Aatu Räty shot blocked by Brandon Montour
·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·15:42
Aatu Räty Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·15:24
Bobby McMann Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·15:03
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Shane Wright
·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·15:03
TV Timeout
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·15:03
Tom Willander Hooking against Ryan Winterton
·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·14:55
Ben Meyers shot blocked by Elias Pettersson
· ·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·14:53
Takeaway by Frederick Gaudreau
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·14:09
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Eeli Tolvanen
·
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·14:09
Goalie Stopped
SEA 5·VAN 1
3rd·14:08
Brandon Montour Slap Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
SEA 5·VAN 1

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 6.5·SEA -142/VAN +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

eattle Kraken went into Vancouver Canucks and beat them, 5–2.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
47.8%
P(VAN win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
47.8%
P(VAN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
47.8%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at VAN?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Seattle KrakenVancouver Canucks

Elsewhere in the NHL