Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at WPG?

The model favors WPG, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2WPG

COL

44-12-9

WPG

27-28-10

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -185

COL · top performer

Martin Necas

C · #88

1Points

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	3:48
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	5:26
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:39
N. KadriC · #91	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	24:20
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	13:20
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:13
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	25:26
M. NecasC · #88	1	0	-1	4	0	0	0	26:48
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	22:35
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	0	7	2	1	0	23:03
N. RoyC · #10	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BlankenburgD · #37	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6:43
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	14:06
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:54
C. MakarD · #8	0	1	-1	3	1	1	0	25:21
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	16:15
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	14:18
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	20:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	18	2	16	.889	56:41

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	0	-1	2	5	1	0	13:19
K. ConnorLW · #81	1	1	1	2	1	1	0	18:49
A. IafalloLW · #9	1	0	3	3	0	1	0	17:56
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	7:25
B. LambertC · #93	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:35
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	20:14
G. NyquistRW · #14	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:53
C. PerfettiC · #91	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	19:12
I. RosenRW · #27	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	9:27
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	2	1	1	1	2	2	19:53
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12:01
G. VilardiC · #13	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	18:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrysonD · #78	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	12:28
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	2	1	3	2	0	24:36
H. FleuryD · #24	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	15:11
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	25:02
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	20:53
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	20:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	29	1	28	.966	59:41

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 20

WPG2@

COL3

Mar 14

COL1@

WPG3today

Mar 27

COL3@

WPG2

Mar 28

WPG4@

COL2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-18565%

WPG+15439%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat COL 3-1. K. Connor led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
COL	0	0	1	1
WPG	0	2	1	3

Period scoring

COL won 0 · WPG won 1

COL

WPG

Play-by-play · 303 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 1·WPG 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 1·WPG 3
3rd·19:51
Cole Perfetti Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
COL 1·WPG 3
3rd·19:48
Takeaway by Adam Lowry
COL 1·WPG 3
3rd·19:18
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
COL 1·WPG 3
3rd·19:18
Cole Perfetti Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none
COL 1·WPG 3
3rd·19:14
Giveaway by Nathan MacKinnon
COL 1·WPG 2
3rd·18:44
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 1·WPG 2
3rd·18:44
Timeout - Visitor
COL 1·WPG 2
3rd·18:44
Martin Necas Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (65), Cale Makar (48)
· ·
COL 1·WPG 2
3rd·18:11
Giveaway by Elias Salomonsson
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·17:57
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·17:57
High Stick
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·17:52
Mark Scheifele shot blocked by Cale Makar
·
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·17:46
Mark Scheifele Backhand Wide Left
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·17:46
Giveaway by Cale Makar
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·17:39
Morgan Barron faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·17:39
Goalie Stopped
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·17:36
Nazem Kadri Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·17:36
Brock Nelson Wrist Shot Short
·
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·17:22
Nathan MacKinnon Slap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·17:15
Cale Makar Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·17:07
Nazem Kadri shot blocked by Dylan DeMelo
·
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·17:05
Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·17:03
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·16:50
Cale Makar shot blocked by Gabriel Vilardi
·
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·16:31
Cale Makar shot blocked by Gabriel Vilardi
·
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·16:23
Nazem Kadri shot blocked by Adam Lowry
·
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·16:20
Giveaway by Dylan DeMelo
COL 0·WPG 2
3rd·16:17
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 0·WPG 2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 5.5·COL -185/WPG +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets held off Colorado Avalanche, 3–1.

WPG +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Brock Nelson · COL22:300.8061.5%69.3%22:30 TOI · 0.80 iXG · 61.5% CF · 69.3% xGF
Valeri Nichushkin · CBJ23:120.5764.8%70.3%23:12 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 64.8% CF · 70.3% xGF
Nazem Kadri · COL24:120.4563.0%73.3%24:12 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 63.0% CF · 73.3% xGF
Cale Makar · COL25:300.4472.1%81.2%25:30 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 72.1% CF · 81.2% xGF
Martin Necas · COL26:540.3773.7%82.7%26:54 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 73.7% CF · 82.7% xGF
Alex Iafallo · WPG18:060.2637.9%38.8%18:06 TOI · 0.26 iXG · 37.9% CF · 38.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Connor Hellebuyck · WPG28–1.966+1.4728–1 · .966 SV% · +1.47 GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood · COL16–2.889-0.8016–2 · .889 SV% · -0.80 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.2%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
40.2%
P(WPG win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
40.2%
P(WPG win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
40.2%
P(WPG win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at WPG?: The model favors WPG, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Colorado AvalancheWinnipeg Jets

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