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FINAL+2WPG
COL

COL

44-12-9

13
WPG

WPG

27-28-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -185

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets held off Colorado Avalanche, 3–1.

WPG +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Nathan MacKinnon

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

WPG
Kyle Connor

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
3
COL44-12-9WPG27-28-10
COL

COL

44-12-9

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WPG

WPG

27-28-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 20WPGWPG2@COLCOL3
Mar 14COLCOL1@WPGWPG3today
Mar 27COLCOL3@WPGWPG2
Mar 28WPGWPG4@COLCOL2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-18565%
WPGWPG+15439%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat COL 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL0011
WPG0213

Period scoring

COL won 0 · WPG won 1

0
0

1

0
2

2

1
1

3

COL
WPG

Play-by-play · 303 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 1·WPG 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 1·WPG 3

  3. 3rd·19:51

    Cole Perfetti Wrist Shot Hit Left Post

    COL 1·WPG 3

  4. 3rd·19:48

    Takeaway by Adam Lowry

    COL 1·WPG 3

  5. 3rd·19:18

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Adam Lowry

    ·

    COL 1·WPG 3

  6. 3rd·19:18

    Cole Perfetti Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    COL 1·WPG 3

  7. 3rd·19:14

    Giveaway by Nathan MacKinnon

    COL 1·WPG 2

  8. 3rd·18:44

    Adam Lowry faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 1·WPG 2

  9. 3rd·18:44

    Timeout - Visitor

    COL 1·WPG 2

  10. 3rd·18:44

    Martin Necas Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (65), Cale Makar (48)

    · ·

    COL 1·WPG 2

  11. 3rd·18:11

    Giveaway by Elias Salomonsson

    COL 0·WPG 2

  12. 3rd·17:57

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Mark Scheifele

    ·

    COL 0·WPG 2

  13. 3rd·17:57

    High Stick

    COL 0·WPG 2

  14. 3rd·17:52

    Mark Scheifele shot blocked by Cale Makar

    ·

    COL 0·WPG 2

  15. 3rd·17:46

    Mark Scheifele Backhand Wide Left

    COL 0·WPG 2

  16. 3rd·17:46

    Giveaway by Cale Makar

    COL 0·WPG 2

  17. 3rd·17:39

    Morgan Barron faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 0·WPG 2

  18. 3rd·17:39

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 0·WPG 2

  19. 3rd·17:36

    Nazem Kadri Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    COL 0·WPG 2

  20. 3rd·17:36

    Brock Nelson Wrist Shot Short

    ·

    COL 0·WPG 2

  21. 3rd·17:22

    Nathan MacKinnon Slap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    COL 0·WPG 2

  22. 3rd·17:15

    Cale Makar Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    COL 0·WPG 2

  23. 3rd·17:07

    Nazem Kadri shot blocked by Dylan DeMelo

    ·

    COL 0·WPG 2

  24. 3rd·17:05

    Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    COL 0·WPG 2

  25. 3rd·17:03

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    COL 0·WPG 2

  26. 3rd·16:50

    Cale Makar shot blocked by Gabriel Vilardi

    ·

    COL 0·WPG 2

  27. 3rd·16:31

    Cale Makar shot blocked by Gabriel Vilardi

    ·

    COL 0·WPG 2

  28. 3rd·16:23

    Nazem Kadri shot blocked by Adam Lowry

    ·

    COL 0·WPG 2

  29. 3rd·16:20

    Giveaway by Dylan DeMelo

    COL 0·WPG 2

  30. 3rd·16:17

    Adam Lowry faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 0·WPG 2

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

29

Shots

19

0.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

4

31

Faceoffs W

23

5

Blocks

24

13

Giveaways

16

3

Takeaways

8

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 5.5·COL -185/WPG +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
    DIST MI293.099+
  • Martin NecasCOL · C
    BURSTS7599
  • Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
    SKATE MPH24.299

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WPG favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR