NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYR

NYR

28-30-8

MIN

38-17-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIN -198

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers went into Minnesota Wild and beat them, 4–2.

NYR +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYR · top performer

Jaroslav Chmelar

RW · #49

1Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Matt Boldy

LW · #12

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

NYR28-30-8

MIN38-17-12

NYR28-30-8MIN38-17-12

NYR

28-30-8

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

MIN

38-17-12

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 20

MIN3@

NYR1

Mar 14

NYR4@

MIN2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYR+16438%

MIN-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat MIN 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYR	2	2	0	4
MIN	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

NYR won 2 · MIN won 1

NYR

MIN

Play-by-play · 312 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:50
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:50
Icing
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:43
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:43
High Stick
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:15
Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:13
Vladimir Tarasenko shot blocked by Braden Schneider
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:10
Joel Eriksson Ek Deflected saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:10
Joel Eriksson Ek Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:55
Braden Schneider Wrist Shot Wide Left
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:54
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:54
Timeout - Visitor
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:54
J.T. Miller Roughing against Mats Zuccarello
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:54
Goalie Stopped
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:54
Mats Zuccarello Roughing against J.T. Miller
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:52
Ryan Hartman Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:51
Quinn Hughes shot blocked by Urho Vaakanainen
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:43
Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by Vincent Trocheck
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:20
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:20
High Stick
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:12
Ryan Hartman Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:11
Kirill Kaprizov Snap Shot Hit Right Post
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:10
Quinn Hughes Slap Shot Wide Right
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:01
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:01
Goalie Stopped
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·17:58
Kirill Kaprizov Backhand saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·17:29
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·17:29
Vladislav Gavrikov Slashing against Ryan Hartman
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·17:24
Giveaway by Adam Fox
NYR 4·MIN 2

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

14.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYR +164/MIN -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Brock FaberMIN · D
BURSTS2799+
J.T. MillerNYR · LW
SHOT MPH102.699+
Adam EdstromNYR · C
SKATE MPH23.898
Matt BoldyMIN · LW
SHOT MPH92.897
Marcus JohanssonMIN · LW
SKATE MPH23.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-198

Close price

-198

Open no-vig

63.7%

Close no-vig

63.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

MIN vs NYR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Matt BoldyMIN
3.8± 1.9high
Joel Eriksson EkMIN
3.3± 1.6high
Ryan HartmanMIN
3.0± 2.3high

Goals

Matt BoldyMIN
0.5± 0.7high
Joel Eriksson EkMIN
0.4± 0.7high
Kirill KaprizovMIN
0.4± 0.5high

Points

Quinn HughesMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Kirill KaprizovMIN
1.2± 1.1high
Adam FoxNYR
1.2± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands