Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYR at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYR

NYR

28-30-8

MIN

38-17-12

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIN -198

NYR · top performer

Vladislav Gavrikov

D · #44

3Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Matt Boldy

LW · #12

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChmelarRW · #49	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	6:19
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	16:42
A. EdstromC · #84	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:33
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	1	1	0	0	1	2	13:38
N. LabaC · #42	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	16:29
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:59
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	0	0	1	2	3	2	19:15
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	13:46
T. RaddyshRW · #14	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	9:09
C. ShearyLW · #43	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:24
V. TrocheckC · #16	1	0	1	3	1	2	2	20:47
M. ZibanejadC · #93	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	20:29

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	-1	0	0	4	4	18:47
A. FoxD · #23	0	2	2	0	0	0	2	23:06
V. GavrikovD · #44	1	2	3	1	0	0	6	20:46
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:16
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	-1	1	3	3	0	23:23
U. VaakanainenD · #18	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	14:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ShesterkinG · #31	48	2	46	.958	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	1	0	-1	4	2	2	2	22:49
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	0	0	-1	5	0	0	4	18:24
N. FolignoLW · #71	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	12:31
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	19:02
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:33
K. KaprizovLW · #97	0	0	-1	6	2	0	0	22:42
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	11:49
N. SturmC · #78	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	8:26
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	1	1	2	2	2	0	15:11
Y. TreninC · #13	0	1	0	2	7	0	0	9:56
D. YurovRW · #22	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:56
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	0	0	-1	6	0	0	2	19:58

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BogosianD · #24	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	12:45
J. BrodinD · #25	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:32
B. FaberD · #7	0	0	-2	2	0	0	2	20:14
Q. HughesD · #43	0	1	-2	2	1	1	0	28:08
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:43
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	16:15

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GustavssonG · #32	18	4	14	.778	57:19

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

14.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 20

MIN3@

NYR1

Mar 14

NYR4@

MIN2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYR+16438%

MIN-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 29 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat MIN 4-2. V. Gavrikov led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYR	2	2	0	4
MIN	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

NYR won 2 · MIN won 1

NYR

MIN

Play-by-play · 312 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:50
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:50
Icing
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:43
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:43
High Stick
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:15
Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:13
Vladimir Tarasenko shot blocked by Braden Schneider
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:10
Joel Eriksson Ek Deflected saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:10
Joel Eriksson Ek Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:55
Braden Schneider Wrist Shot Wide Left
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:54
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:54
Timeout - Visitor
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:54
J.T. Miller Roughing against Mats Zuccarello
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:54
Goalie Stopped
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:54
Mats Zuccarello Roughing against J.T. Miller
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:52
Ryan Hartman Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:51
Quinn Hughes shot blocked by Urho Vaakanainen
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:43
Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by Vincent Trocheck
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:20
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:20
High Stick
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:12
Ryan Hartman Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:11
Kirill Kaprizov Snap Shot Hit Right Post
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:10
Quinn Hughes Slap Shot Wide Right
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:01
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·18:01
Goalie Stopped
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·17:58
Kirill Kaprizov Backhand saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·17:29
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·17:29
Vladislav Gavrikov Slashing against Ryan Hartman
·
NYR 4·MIN 2
3rd·17:24
Giveaway by Adam Fox
NYR 4·MIN 2

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYR +164/MIN -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers went into Minnesota Wild and beat them, 4–2.

NYR +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Mats Zuccarello · MIN21:480.8688.5%90.7%21:48 TOI · 0.86 iXG · 88.5% CF · 90.7% xGF
Kirill Kaprizov · MIN23:000.8585.2%81.4%23:00 TOI · 0.85 iXG · 85.2% CF · 81.4% xGF
Joel Eriksson Ek · MIN18:420.8371.4%77.6%18:42 TOI · 0.83 iXG · 71.4% CF · 77.6% xGF
Ryan Hartman · MIN19:180.4783.7%84.2%19:18 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 83.7% CF · 84.2% xGF
Matt Boldy · MIN23:060.4675.0%78.8%23:06 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 75.0% CF · 78.8% xGF
Jaroslav Chmelar · NYR6:240.4535.7%62.1%6:24 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 35.7% CF · 62.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Igor Shesterkin · NYR46–2.958+2.8046–2 · .958 SV% · +2.80 GSAx
Filip Gustavsson · MIN14–4.778-2.0914–4 · .778 SV% · -2.09 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.6%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
66.6%
P(MIN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
66.6%
P(MIN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
66.6%
P(MIN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-198

Close price

-198

Open no-vig

63.7%

Close no-vig

63.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYR at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New York RangersMinnesota Wild

Elsewhere in the NHL