Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at VGK?

The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4VGK

CHI

25-30-11

VGK

31-22-14

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-1VegasVGK -225

CHI · top performer

Tyler Bertuzzi

LW · #59

0Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	19:45
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	22:05
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:04
R. DonatoC · #8	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	14:49
R. GreeneC · #20	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:07
S. LaffertyC · #24	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	5:55
N. LardisLW · #76	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	8:44
A. MangiapaneLW · #26	0	0	-1	3	3	0	2	13:00
I. MikheyevRW · #95	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	17:36
F. NazarC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:20
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	8:38
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17:30

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	0	0	2	2	2	4	17:56
E. Del MastroD · #38	0	0	-1	1	0	0	12	11:16
M. GrzelcykD · #48	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	20:25
A. LevshunovD · #55	0	0	-1	0	4	3	0	23:55
S. RinzelD · #6	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	18:50
A. VlasicD · #72	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	21:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KnightG · #30	32	4	28	.875	59:56

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:32
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	14:17
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	2	1	1	5	0	0	0	15:08
N. DowdC · #62	0	1	1	2	0	0	4	11:18
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:10
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	1	4	4	1	0	14:28
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:43
K. KolesarRW · #55	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	11:04
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	17:33
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:31
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	1	2	3	0	2	10:24
M. StoneRW · #61	0	2	0	4	0	0	0	15:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	23:38
N. HanifinD · #15	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	22:51
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	13:46
J. LauzonD · #5	0	1	1	1	3	0	14	13:39
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	21:56
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	19:31

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HillG · #33	21	0	21	1.000	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

40.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

VGK wins series 2-1

Dec 3

CHI3@

VGK4

Jan 5

VGK2@

CHI3

Mar 15

CHI0@

VGK4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+18535%

VGK-22569%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat CHI 4-0. P. Dorofeyev led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CHI	0	0	0	0
VGK	3	1	0	4

Period scoring

CHI won 0 · VGK won 2

CHI

VGK

Play-by-play · 296 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·19:51
Ilya Mikheyev Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·19:00
Tomas Hertl hit Andre Burakovsky
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·18:57
Andre Burakovsky shot blocked by Brayden McNabb
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·18:33
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Frank Nazar
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·18:33
Goalie Stopped
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·18:32
Andrew Mangiapane Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·18:26
Sam Lafferty hit Rasmus Andersson
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·17:53
Colton Sissons Tip-In saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·17:05
Giveaway by Brayden McNabb
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·16:35
Ivan Barbashev Tip-In saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·16:15
Frank Nazar Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·15:30
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Ivan Barbashev
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·15:30
Goalie Stopped
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·15:29
Tomas Hertl Snap Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·15:28
Tomas Hertl Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·14:42
Ryan Greene faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·14:42
TV Timeout
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·14:42
Matt Grzelcyk Tripping against Mark Stone
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·14:30
Louis Crevier Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·13:38
Takeaway by Braeden Bowman
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·13:30
Brett Howden shot blocked by Artyom Levshunov
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·13:24
Colton Sissons Tip-In Wide Left
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·13:20
Brett Howden hit Teuvo Teravainen
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·13:08
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Tyler Bertuzzi
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·13:08
Goalie Stopped
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·13:07
Tyler Bertuzzi Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·13:04
Alex Vlasic Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
CHI 0·VGK 4
3rd·12:50
Giveaway by Matt Grzelcyk
CHI 0·VGK 4

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 5.5·CHI +185/VGK -225

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Chicago Blackhawks, 4–0.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.8%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
61.8%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.8%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.8%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+185

Close price

+185

Open no-vig

33.6%

Close no-vig

33.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at VGK?: The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Chicago BlackhawksVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL