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FINAL+4VGK
CHI

CHI

25-30-11

04
VGK

VGK

31-22-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-1VegasVGK -225

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Chicago Blackhawks, 4–0.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHI · top performer

CHI
Connor Bedard

Connor Bedard

C · #98

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

VGK
Pavel Dorofeyev

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
0
4
CHI25-30-11VGK31-22-14
CHI

CHI

25-30-11

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VGK

VGK

31-22-14

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

24

PIM

22

Season series

VGK wins series 2-1

Dec 3CHICHI3@VGKVGK4
Jan 5VGKVGK2@CHICHI3
Mar 15CHICHI0@VGKVGK4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHICHI+18535%
VGKVGK-22569%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat CHI 4-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CHI0000
VGK3104

Period scoring

CHI won 0 · VGK won 2

0
3

1

0
1

2

0
0

3

CHI
VGK

Play-by-play · 296 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  3. 3rd·19:51

    Ilya Mikheyev Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  4. 3rd·19:00

    Tomas Hertl hit Andre Burakovsky

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  5. 3rd·18:57

    Andre Burakovsky shot blocked by Brayden McNabb

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  6. 3rd·18:33

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Frank Nazar

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  7. 3rd·18:33

    Goalie Stopped

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  8. 3rd·18:32

    Andrew Mangiapane Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  9. 3rd·18:26

    Sam Lafferty hit Rasmus Andersson

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  10. 3rd·17:53

    Colton Sissons Tip-In saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  11. 3rd·17:05

    Giveaway by Brayden McNabb

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  12. 3rd·16:35

    Ivan Barbashev Tip-In saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  13. 3rd·16:15

    Frank Nazar Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  14. 3rd·15:30

    Frank Nazar faceoff won against Ivan Barbashev

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  15. 3rd·15:30

    Goalie Stopped

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  16. 3rd·15:29

    Tomas Hertl Snap Shot saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  17. 3rd·15:28

    Tomas Hertl Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  18. 3rd·14:42

    Ryan Greene faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  19. 3rd·14:42

    TV Timeout

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  20. 3rd·14:42

    Matt Grzelcyk Tripping against Mark Stone

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  21. 3rd·14:30

    Louis Crevier Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  22. 3rd·13:38

    Takeaway by Braeden Bowman

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  23. 3rd·13:30

    Brett Howden shot blocked by Artyom Levshunov

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  24. 3rd·13:24

    Colton Sissons Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  25. 3rd·13:20

    Brett Howden hit Teuvo Teravainen

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  26. 3rd·13:08

    Colton Sissons faceoff won against Tyler Bertuzzi

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  27. 3rd·13:08

    Goalie Stopped

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  28. 3rd·13:07

    Tyler Bertuzzi Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  29. 3rd·13:04

    Alex Vlasic Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    CHI 0·VGK 4

  30. 3rd·12:50

    Giveaway by Matt Grzelcyk

    CHI 0·VGK 4

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

21

Shots

32

0.0

PCT

40.0

24

PIM

22

31

Faceoffs W

24

6

Blocks

7

17

Giveaways

12

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 5.5·CHI +185/VGK -225

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Louis CrevierCHI · D
    SHOT MPH102.899
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
    DIST MI54.196

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · VGK favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+185

Close price

+185

Open no-vig

33.6%

Close no-vig

33.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR