Live · 3
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+1EDM
SJ

SJ

27-21-4

34
EDM

EDM

28-19-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesEDM leads series 1-0VegasEDM -192

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers held off San Jose Sharks, 4–3 in overtime.

SJ +1.5 cashed (EDM won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

SJ
Macklin Celebrini

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

EDM
Leon Draisaitl

Leon Draisaitl

C · #29

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
3
4
SJ27-21-4EDM28-19-8
SJ

SJ

27-21-4

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
EDM

EDM

28-19-8

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

6

Season series

EDM leads series 1-0

Jan 30SJSJ3@EDMEDM4today
Feb 28EDMEDM4@SJSJ5
Mar 18SJSJ3@EDMEDM5
Apr 9EDMEDM5@SJSJ2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJSJ+16038%
EDMEDM-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat SJ 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
SJ30003
EDM00314

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · EDM won 2

3
0

1

0
0

2

0
3

3

0
1

OT

SJ
EDM

Play-by-play · 294 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·1:06

    Game End

    SJ 3·EDM 4

  2. OT·1:06

    End of OT

    SJ 3·EDM 4

  3. OT·1:06

    Zach Hyman Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (60), Evan Bouchard (44)

    · ·

    SJ 3·EDM 4

  4. OT·0:41

    Giveaway by Timothy Liljegren

    SJ 3·EDM 3

  5. OT·0:33

    Evan Bouchard Slap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 3

  6. OT·0:00

    Connor McDavid faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 3

  7. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    SJ 3·EDM 3

  8. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    SJ 3·EDM 3

  9. 3rd·19:48

    Jake Walman shot blocked by Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 3

  10. 3rd·19:13

    Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 3

  11. 3rd·19:12

    Jack Roslovic hit Mario Ferraro

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 3

  12. 3rd·19:01

    Jack Roslovic faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 3

  13. 3rd·19:01

    Evan Bouchard Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (51), Mattias Ekholm (21)

    · ·

    SJ 3·EDM 3

  14. 3rd·18:12

    Zach Hyman Tip-In High and Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 2

  15. 3rd·17:29

    Vasily Podkolzin hit Mario Ferraro

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 2

  16. 3rd·17:00

    Kasperi Kapanen hit Mario Ferraro

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 2

  17. 3rd·16:55

    Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Jack Roslovic

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 2

  18. 3rd·16:55

    Connor McDavid Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (50), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (31)

    · ·

    SJ 3·EDM 2

  19. 3rd·16:50

    Mattias Ekholm Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 1

  20. 3rd·16:35

    Leon Draisaitl shot blocked by Zach Hyman

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 1

  21. 3rd·16:11

    Leon Draisaitl shot blocked by Timothy Liljegren

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 1

  22. 3rd·16:10

    Zach Hyman Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 1

  23. 3rd·16:02

    Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 1

  24. 3rd·16:02

    Icing

    SJ 3·EDM 1

  25. 3rd·15:40

    Giveaway by Macklin Celebrini

    SJ 3·EDM 1

  26. 3rd·15:29

    Giveaway by Spencer Stastney

    SJ 3·EDM 1

  27. 3rd·15:20

    Ty Emberson hit William Eklund

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 1

  28. 3rd·14:59

    Zack Ostapchuk Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 1

  29. 3rd·14:43

    Michael Misa faceoff won against Jack Roslovic

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 1

  30. 3rd·14:43

    Puck in Netting

    SJ 3·EDM 1

Team stats

SJ

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

21

Shots

32

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

6

23

Faceoffs W

35

15

Blocks

8

15

Giveaways

15

5

Takeaways

3

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +160/EDM -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 skaters with EDGE
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498
  • Evan BouchardEDM · D
    SHOT MPH97.395
  • Darnell NurseEDM · D
    BURSTS1389
  • Spencer StastneyEDM · D
    BURSTS6788

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · EDM favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR