Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at EDM?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1EDM

27-21-4

EDM

28-19-8

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesEDM leads series 1-0VegasEDM -192

SJ · top performer

Collin Graf

RW · #51

1Points

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

Evan Bouchard

D · #2

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	22:49
W. EklundLW · #72	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	16:14
A. GaudetteRW · #81	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:20
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	11:37
C. GrafRW · #51	1	0	0	3	0	2	0	20:22
M. MisaC · #77	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	12:51
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	-1	1	3	0	2	8:50
R. ReavesRW · #75	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	7:35
P. RegendaLW · #84	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:52
W. SmithC · #2	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	19:45
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:52
A. WennbergC · #21	0	0	-1	0	0	5	0	21:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	17:02
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	14:41
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	23:47
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:23
T. LiljegrenD · #37	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	24:56
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	-3	0	0	1	0	22:12

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. AskarovG · #30	32	4	28	.875	61:06

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DraisaitlC · #29	1	2	3	2	3	0	0	25:20
T. FredericC · #10	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	8:26
Z. HymanLW · #18	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:53
M. JanmarkC · #13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:42
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	1	1	4	3	3	0	18:37
C. LazarC · #20	0	0	0	1	2	2	2	8:45
C. McDavidC · #97	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	26:10
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:07
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	16:09
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	14:15
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	8:12
M. SavoieC · #22	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	9:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	1	2	2	5	2	0	2	25:06
M. EkholmD · #14	0	1	1	0	0	1	2	21:52
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	15:35
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	22:26
S. StastneyD · #24	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	14:28
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	19:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	21	3	18	.857	59:19

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

EDM leads series 1-0

Jan 30

SJ3@

EDM4today

Feb 28

EDM4@

SJ5

Mar 18

SJ3@

EDM5

Apr 9

EDM5@

SJ2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+16038%

EDM-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat SJ 4-3. E. Bouchard led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
SJ	3	0	0	0	3
EDM	0	0	3	1	4

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · EDM won 2

EDM

Play-by-play · 294 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:06
Game End
SJ 3·EDM 4
OT·1:06
End of OT
SJ 3·EDM 4
OT·1:06
Zach Hyman Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (60), Evan Bouchard (44)
· ·
SJ 3·EDM 4
OT·0:41
Giveaway by Timothy Liljegren
SJ 3·EDM 3
OT·0:33
Evan Bouchard Slap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
SJ 3·EDM 3
OT·0:00
Connor McDavid faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·EDM 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
SJ 3·EDM 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 3·EDM 3
3rd·19:48
Jake Walman shot blocked by Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·EDM 3
3rd·19:13
Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·EDM 3
3rd·19:12
Jack Roslovic hit Mario Ferraro
·
SJ 3·EDM 3
3rd·19:01
Jack Roslovic faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·EDM 3
3rd·19:01
Evan Bouchard Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (51), Mattias Ekholm (21)
· ·
SJ 3·EDM 3
3rd·18:12
Zach Hyman Tip-In High and Wide Right
·
SJ 3·EDM 2
3rd·17:29
Vasily Podkolzin hit Mario Ferraro
·
SJ 3·EDM 2
3rd·17:00
Kasperi Kapanen hit Mario Ferraro
·
SJ 3·EDM 2
3rd·16:55
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Jack Roslovic
·
SJ 3·EDM 2
3rd·16:55
Connor McDavid Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (50), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (31)
· ·
SJ 3·EDM 2
3rd·16:50
Mattias Ekholm Tip-In Wide Right
·
SJ 3·EDM 1
3rd·16:35
Leon Draisaitl shot blocked by Zach Hyman
·
SJ 3·EDM 1
3rd·16:11
Leon Draisaitl shot blocked by Timothy Liljegren
·
SJ 3·EDM 1
3rd·16:10
Zach Hyman Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 3·EDM 1
3rd·16:02
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
SJ 3·EDM 1
3rd·16:02
Icing
SJ 3·EDM 1
3rd·15:40
Giveaway by Macklin Celebrini
SJ 3·EDM 1
3rd·15:29
Giveaway by Spencer Stastney
SJ 3·EDM 1
3rd·15:20
Ty Emberson hit William Eklund
·
SJ 3·EDM 1
3rd·14:59
Zack Ostapchuk Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SJ 3·EDM 1
3rd·14:43
Michael Misa faceoff won against Jack Roslovic
·
SJ 3·EDM 1
3rd·14:43
Puck in Netting
SJ 3·EDM 1

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +160/EDM -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers held off San Jose Sharks, 4–3 in overtime.

SJ +1.5 cashed (EDM won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.2%

ensemble · EDM favored

Elo Static
56.2%
P(EDM win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.2%
P(EDM win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.2%
P(EDM win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at EDM?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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