Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at PIT?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4PIT

CHI

21-24-9

PIT

27-14-11

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesPIT wins series 2-0VegasPIT -185

CHI · top performer

Connor Bedard

C · #98

1Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Anthony Mantha

RW · #39

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	1	0	-2	4	1	0	0	19:48
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	18:04
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	11:16
C. DachC · #34	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	10:56
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	0	-2	0	1	3	0	18:35
R. DonatoC · #8	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:54
N. FolignoLW · #17	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1:18
R. GreeneC · #20	0	1	-1	4	0	1	0	15:15
I. MikheyevRW · #95	0	0	-3	1	1	1	0	18:33
O. MooreC · #11	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	15:44
F. NazarC · #91	0	2	1	1	0	0	2	17:38
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:53

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	18:47
M. GrzelcykD · #48	0	0	1	2	1	2	0	19:57
W. KaiserD · #44	0	0	-5	1	1	0	2	17:10
A. LevshunovD · #55	0	0	-5	0	1	1	0	20:46
C. MurphyD · #5	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	19:34
A. VlasicD · #72	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	19:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SoderblomG · #40	45	6	39	.867	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	2	2	4	1	2	0	13:14
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	13:10
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	1	0	0	5	0	0	0	15:53
S. CrosbyC · #87	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	19:18
C. DewarC · #19	2	0	2	2	4	0	0	14:41
B. KindelC · #81	1	1	3	1	0	1	4	12:35
B. LizotteC · #46	0	2	2	0	0	2	0	13:10
E. MalkinC · #71	0	1	0	2	1	0	2	16:58
A. ManthaRW · #39	1	2	3	3	0	0	0	13:27
R. McGroartyRW · #2	0	0	3	5	3	1	0	10:36
T. NovakC · #18	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	15:00
R. RakellRW · #67	0	0	-1	6	0	1	0	18:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	0	3	2	0	1	0	21:40
B. KulakD · #77	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	19:56
K. LetangD · #58	0	0	-2	3	0	2	0	21:15
R. SheaD · #5	1	1	3	3	2	0	0	17:51
I. SolovyovD · #7	0	1	3	0	1	1	0	16:51
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	1	2	1	3	0	0	20:24

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SilovsG · #37	20	2	18	.900	59:57

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PIT wins series 2-0

Dec 29

PIT7@

CHI3

Jan 30

CHI2@

PIT6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+15439%

PIT-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat CHI 6-2. A. Mantha led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CHI	1	0	1	2
PIT	1	4	1	6

Period scoring

CHI won 0 · PIT won 1

CHI

PIT

Play-by-play · 325 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·19:44
Giveaway by Oliver Moore
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·19:41
Giveaway by Ryan Shea
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·18:29
Giveaway by Jason Dickinson
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·18:24
Matt Grzelcyk hit Rickard Rakell
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·18:15
Connor Dewar shot blocked by Connor Murphy
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·18:09
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Jason Dickinson
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·18:09
Goalie Stopped
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·18:07
Rickard Rakell Tip-In saved by Arvid Soderblom
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·17:50
Rickard Rakell Tip-In saved by Arvid Soderblom
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·17:49
Brett Kulak shot blocked by Jason Dickinson
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·17:47
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Ryan Greene
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·17:47
Puck in Netting
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·17:44
Sidney Crosby shot blocked by Jason Dickinson
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·17:34
Justin Brazeau Wrist Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·17:05
Parker Wotherspoon hit Oliver Moore
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·16:21
Giveaway by Connor Dewar
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·15:59
Blake Lizotte shot blocked by Connor Murphy
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·15:34
Giveaway by Ryan Shea
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·15:30
Blake Lizotte faceoff won against Frank Nazar
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·15:30
Puck in Netting
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·15:29
Ryan Greene Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·15:23
Colton Dach Wrist Shot Short
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·15:22
Ryan Greene Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·15:21
Ryan Greene Snap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·15:17
Wyatt Kaiser Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·15:09
Ryan Shea hit Ryan Donato
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·14:52
Colton Dach hit Ilya Solovyov
·
CHI 2·PIT 6
3rd·14:31
Thomas Novak faceoff won against Ryan Greene
·
CHI 2·PIT 6

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 6.5·CHI +154/PIT -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins held off Chicago Blackhawks, 6–2.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.9%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
63.9%
P(PIT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.9%
P(PIT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.9%
P(PIT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-185

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at PIT?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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