NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3BUF

22-17-13

BUF

31-17-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesBUF leads series 1-0VegasBUF -125

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Los Angeles Kings, 4–1.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LA · top performer

Kevin Fiala

LW · #22

1Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Jack Quinn

RW · #22

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

LA22-17-13

BUF31-17-5

LA22-17-13BUF31-17-5

22-17-13

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

BUF

31-17-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

BUF leads series 1-0

Jan 30

LA1@

BUF4today

Mar 21

BUF4@

LA1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA+10549%

BUF-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat LA 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
LA	0	1	0	1
BUF	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

LA won 0 · BUF won 2

BUF

Play-by-play · 331 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:44
Quinton Byfield faceoff won against Tyson Kozak
·
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:44
Off-side
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:44
Samuel Helenius Misconduct
·
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:44
Michael Kesselring Misconduct
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:44
Jeff Malott Misconduct
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:44
Peyton Krebs Misconduct
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:40
Jeff Malott hit Tyson Kozak
·
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:33
Samuel Helenius hit Peyton Krebs
· ·
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:03
Samuel Helenius hit Michael Kesselring
· ·
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:00
Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Samuel Helenius
· ·
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:00
Alex Tuch Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (22), Ryan McLeod (26)
· ·
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·18:51
Drew Doughty Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·18:42
Giveaway by Jack Quinn
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·18:25
Rasmus Dahlin Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·17:02
Joel Edmundson Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·16:52
Jason Zucker faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·16:52
TV Timeout
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·16:52
Too many men/ice served by Corey Perry
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·16:13
Tage Thompson faceoff won against Joel Armia
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·16:13
Icing
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·16:09
Taylor Ward hit Michael Kesselring
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·15:30
Adrian Kempe hit Jack Quinn
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·15:27
Giveaway by Adrian Kempe
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·14:48
Quinton Byfield shot blocked by Trevor Moore
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·14:41
Cody Ceci Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·14:37
Brian Dumoulin shot blocked by Josh Doan
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·14:31
Quinton Byfield Snap Shot Wide Left
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·13:46
Bowen Byram Slap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 1·BUF 3

Team stats

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA +105/BUF -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 skaters with EDGE

Ryan McLeodBUF · C
BURSTS7299
Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
DIST MI46.992
Bowen ByramBUF · D
BURSTS1691
Mattias SamuelssonBUF · D
DIST MI41.088
Owen PowerBUF · D
DIST MI40.186

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit