Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3BUF

22-17-13

BUF

31-17-5

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesBUF leads series 1-0VegasBUF -125

LA · top performer

Adrian Kempe

RW · #9

1Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Alex Tuch

RW · #89

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	16:47
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	15:54
K. FialaLW · #22	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	17:23
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	14:27
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	-1	0	4	0	12	10:06
A. KempeRW · #9	1	0	-1	4	3	0	0	16:49
A. KuzmenkoLW · #96	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	15:39
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	17:40
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	-1	1	6	1	14	9:39
T. MooreLW · #12	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	16:14
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	15:27
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	11:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	19:30
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	18:52
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	1	-2	2	0	3	0	21:04
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	22:48
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	16:15
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	17:53

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KuemperG · #35	31	3	28	.903	59:54

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	18:26
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	14:32
K. HeleniusC · #94	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:07
T. KozakC · #48	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	11:45
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	0	2	0	0	14	12:50
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	12:27
R. McLeodC · #71	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	16:30
N. OstlundC · #86	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	13:58
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	3	2	1	0	0	0	14:47
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	18:04
A. TuchRW · #89	3	0	2	7	0	0	0	17:57
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	1	2	1	0	2	0	20:40
R. DahlinD · #26	0	1	1	2	1	0	2	25:53
M. KesselringD · #8	0	0	0	2	0	2	12	14:29
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	9:19
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	22:24
M. SamuelssonD · #23	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	23:24

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. LyonG · #34	38	1	37	.974	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF leads series 1-0

Jan 30

LA1@

BUF4today

Mar 21

BUF4@

LA1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA+10549%

BUF-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat LA 4-1. A. Tuch led the way — 3 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
LA	0	1	0	1
BUF	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

LA won 0 · BUF won 2

BUF

Play-by-play · 331 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:44
Quinton Byfield faceoff won against Tyson Kozak
·
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:44
Off-side
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:44
Samuel Helenius Misconduct
·
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:44
Michael Kesselring Misconduct
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:44
Jeff Malott Misconduct
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:44
Peyton Krebs Misconduct
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:40
Jeff Malott hit Tyson Kozak
·
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:33
Samuel Helenius hit Peyton Krebs
· ·
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:03
Samuel Helenius hit Michael Kesselring
· ·
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:00
Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Samuel Helenius
· ·
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:00
Alex Tuch Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (22), Ryan McLeod (26)
· ·
LA 1·BUF 4
3rd·18:51
Drew Doughty Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·18:42
Giveaway by Jack Quinn
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·18:25
Rasmus Dahlin Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·17:02
Joel Edmundson Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·16:52
Jason Zucker faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·16:52
TV Timeout
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·16:52
Too many men/ice served by Corey Perry
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·16:13
Tage Thompson faceoff won against Joel Armia
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·16:13
Icing
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·16:09
Taylor Ward hit Michael Kesselring
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·15:30
Adrian Kempe hit Jack Quinn
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·15:27
Giveaway by Adrian Kempe
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·14:48
Quinton Byfield shot blocked by Trevor Moore
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·14:41
Cody Ceci Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·14:37
Brian Dumoulin shot blocked by Josh Doan
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·14:31
Quinton Byfield Snap Shot Wide Left
·
LA 1·BUF 3
3rd·13:46
Bowen Byram Slap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 1·BUF 3

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA +105/BUF -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Los Angeles Kings, 4–1.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.9%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
64.9%
P(BUF win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.9%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.9%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

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