Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at NYR?

The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYI

NYI

30-19-5

NYR

22-27-6

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesNYI win series 4-0VegasNYI -142

NYI · top performer

Matthew Schaefer

D · #48

1Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Mika Zibanejad

C · #93

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	18:25
J. DrouinLW · #29	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:52
A. DuclairLW · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:58
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	1	1	5	1	2	9:32
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	18:37
S. HolmstromRW · #10	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	18:31
B. HorvatC · #14	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	19:55
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:08
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	8:37
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	16:01
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:43
M. ShabanovRW · #49	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	7:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	0	0	4	0	2	2	20:09
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	15:33
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	21:19
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	1	1	0	4	2	21:15
M. SchaeferD · #48	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	23:25
C. SoucyD · #4	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:39

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	21	1	20	.952	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BerardLW · #65	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:45
S. CarrickC · #39	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	9:22
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	-1	0	6	1	2	17:15
N. LabaC · #42	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	13:55
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	17:54
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	1	0	2	1	1	2	22:08
B. OthmannLW · #78	0	0	-1	0	5	0	0	11:02
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	0	-1	5	0	0	0	18:22
T. RaddyshRW · #14	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	10:35
M. RempeC · #73	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	7:45
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	0	-1	0	3	0	2	20:19
M. ZibanejadC · #93	1	0	0	5	0	0	0	23:50

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	-1	0	4	2	0	18:07
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	1	-1	2	3	1	0	26:55
S. MorrowD · #60	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:47
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	19:37
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	-1	4	1	0	0	20:38
U. VaakanainenD · #18	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	13:34

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. QuickG · #32	21	2	19	.905	58:51

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYI win series 4-0

Nov 9

NYI5@

NYR0

Dec 27

NYR0@

NYI2

Jan 29

NYR2@

NYI5

Jan 30

NYI2@

NYR1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI-14259%

NYR+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat NYR 2-1. M. Schaefer led the way — 1 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYI	0	2	0	2
NYR	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

NYI won 1 · NYR won 1

NYI

NYR

Play-by-play · 293 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:41
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against J.T. Miller
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:41
Timeout - Home
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:41
Vincent Trocheck Holding against Anders Lee
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:40
Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Will Cuylle
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:26
Anders Lee Wrist Shot Wide Left
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·18:55
Mika Zibanejad shot blocked by Adam Pelech
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·18:21
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·18:21
Off-side
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·18:11
Urho Vaakanainen shot blocked by Adam Pelech
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·17:44
Vincent Trocheck shot blocked by Simon Holmstrom
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·17:34
Will Cuylle hit Carson Soucy
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·17:18
Vincent Trocheck hit Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·17:15
Will Cuylle hit Carson Soucy
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·16:31
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·16:31
Puck Frozen - Goalie
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·16:25
Bo Horvat hit Urho Vaakanainen
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·15:05
Tony DeAngelo Wrist Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·15:03
Vladislav Gavrikov hit Mathew Barzal
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·14:55
Takeaway by Mathew Barzal
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·14:48
Mika Zibanejad Slap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·14:47
Giveaway by Mathew Barzal
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·14:32
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Jonathan Drouin
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·14:32
Icing
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·14:24
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Jonathan Drouin
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·14:24
Puck in Netting
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·14:21
Bo Horvat Snap Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·14:04
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
·
NYI 2·NYR 1
3rd·14:04
Puck in Netting
NYI 2·NYR 1

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYI -142/NYR +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders went into New York Rangers and beat them, 2–1.

NYR +1.5 cashed (NYI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · NYR favored

Elo Static
50.2%
P(NYR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.2%
P(NYR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.2%
P(NYR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at NYR?: The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

New York IslandersNew York Rangers

Elsewhere in the NHL