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FINAL+4MTL
COL

COL

35-8-9

37
MTL

MTL

30-17-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -130

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Colorado Avalanche, 7–3.

MTL +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Ross Colton

Ross Colton

C · #20

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

MTL
Nick Suzuki

Nick Suzuki

C · #14

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
7
COL35-8-9MTL30-17-7
COL

COL

35-8-9

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MTL

MTL

30-17-7

7
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 29MTLMTL2@COLCOL7
Jan 30COLCOL3@MTLMTL7today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-13057%
MTLMTL+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat COL 7-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL1113
MTL3227

Period scoring

COL won 0 · MTL won 3

1
3

1

1
2

2

1
2

3

COL
MTL

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 3·MTL 7

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 3·MTL 7

  3. 3rd·19:39

    Kirby Dach faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  4. 3rd·19:39

    Keaton Middleton Roughing against Arber Xhekaj

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  5. 3rd·19:39

    Arber Xhekaj Roughing against Keaton Middleton

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  6. 3rd·19:35

    Arber Xhekaj hit Gavin Brindley

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  7. 3rd·19:24

    Oliver Kapanen Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  8. 3rd·19:03

    Parker Kelly hit Arber Xhekaj

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  9. 3rd·18:55

    Giveaway by Keaton Middleton

    COL 3·MTL 7

  10. 3rd·18:34

    Valeri Nichushkin Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  11. 3rd·18:22

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  12. 3rd·18:22

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 3·MTL 7

  13. 3rd·18:19

    Ivan Demidov Backhand saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  14. 3rd·18:16

    Giveaway by Brent Burns

    COL 3·MTL 7

  15. 3rd·17:58

    Jake Evans shot blocked by Zachary Bolduc

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  16. 3rd·17:41

    Kaiden Guhle shot blocked by Artturi Lehkonen

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  17. 3rd·17:39

    Jake Evans faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  18. 3rd·17:39

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 3·MTL 7

  19. 3rd·17:37

    Alexandre Carrier Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  20. 3rd·17:29

    Kaiden Guhle Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  21. 3rd·16:51

    Parker Kelly hit Arber Xhekaj

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  22. 3rd·16:08

    Ivan Demidov Deflected Wide Right

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  23. 3rd·15:51

    Artturi Lehkonen Tip-In saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  24. 3rd·15:35

    Juraj Slafkovský hit Ross Colton

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  25. 3rd·15:29

    Oliver Kapanen faceoff won against Ross Colton

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  26. 3rd·15:29

    Puck in Netting

    COL 3·MTL 7

  27. 3rd·15:26

    Cole Caufield Slap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  28. 3rd·15:21

    Giveaway by Brock Nelson

    COL 3·MTL 7

  29. 3rd·15:02

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 3·MTL 7

  30. 3rd·15:02

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 3·MTL 7

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

29

Shots

28

0.0

PCT

50.0

6

PIM

6

24

Faceoffs W

29

8

Blocks

21

17

Giveaways

14

4

Takeaways

6

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -130/MTL +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · MTL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR