Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at MTL?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MTL

COL

35-8-9

MTL

30-17-7

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -130

COL · top performer

Ross Colton

C · #20

1Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Nick Suzuki

C · #14

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:17
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:37
R. ColtonC · #20	1	0	-1	2	3	1	0	12:37
J. DruryC · #18	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	14:20
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	0	1	8	1	0	13:11
J. KivirantaLW · #94	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	11:14
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	-2	4	2	1	0	17:55
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	0	-3	2	0	0	0	21:09
M. NecasC · #88	0	0	-3	3	0	0	0	20:57
B. NelsonC · #11	1	0	-2	1	2	0	0	17:10
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	1	-1	0	2	0	0	15:13
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	-3	1	0	2	0	21:30
S. GirardD · #49	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	17:28
C. MakarD · #8	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	24:02
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	1	1	4	0	0	2	21:00
J. MansonD · #42	0	1	-1	2	1	0	0	19:13
K. MiddletonD · #67	0	0	-1	0	2	1	4	12:58

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. WedgewoodG · #41	28	7	21	.750	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	-2	1	1	0	2	12:36
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	2	2	3	0	2	0	15:12
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	12:49
K. DachC · #77	1	1	3	2	0	1	0	14:36
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	14:50
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	2	0	2	0	1	0	15:05
J. EvansC · #71	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	16:12
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	-1	0	4	2	0	13:25
O. KapanenC · #91	0	2	3	0	0	1	0	14:24
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	1	1	1	4	1	2	0	16:57
N. SuzukiC · #14	2	1	2	4	1	2	0	17:42
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	14:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	19:26
N. DobsonD · #53	1	0	2	5	2	2	0	19:34
K. GuhleD · #21	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	22:56
L. HutsonD · #48	0	2	2	0	0	2	0	20:23
M. MathesonD · #8	0	1	2	2	1	1	0	21:36
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	-1	0	4	0	2	13:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	29	3	26	.897	59:45

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 29

MTL2@

COL7

Jan 30

COL3@

MTL7today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-13057%

MTL+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 17 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat COL 7-3. N. Suzuki led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
COL	1	1	1	3
MTL	3	2	2	7

Period scoring

COL won 0 · MTL won 3

COL

MTL

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·19:39
Kirby Dach faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·19:39
Keaton Middleton Roughing against Arber Xhekaj
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·19:39
Arber Xhekaj Roughing against Keaton Middleton
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·19:35
Arber Xhekaj hit Gavin Brindley
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·19:24
Oliver Kapanen Snap Shot Wide Left
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·19:03
Parker Kelly hit Arber Xhekaj
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:55
Giveaway by Keaton Middleton
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:34
Valeri Nichushkin Snap Shot Wide Left
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:22
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:22
Goalie Stopped
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:19
Ivan Demidov Backhand saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:16
Giveaway by Brent Burns
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·17:58
Jake Evans shot blocked by Zachary Bolduc
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·17:41
Kaiden Guhle shot blocked by Artturi Lehkonen
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·17:39
Jake Evans faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·17:39
Goalie Stopped
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·17:37
Alexandre Carrier Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·17:29
Kaiden Guhle Snap Shot Wide Left
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·16:51
Parker Kelly hit Arber Xhekaj
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·16:08
Ivan Demidov Deflected Wide Right
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:51
Artturi Lehkonen Tip-In saved by Jakub Dobes
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:35
Juraj Slafkovský hit Ross Colton
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:29
Oliver Kapanen faceoff won against Ross Colton
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:29
Puck in Netting
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:26
Cole Caufield Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:21
Giveaway by Brock Nelson
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:02
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:02
Goalie Stopped
COL 3·MTL 7

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -130/MTL +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Colorado Avalanche, 7–3.

MTL +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.8%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
50.0%
P(MTL win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
49.5%
P(MTL win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at MTL?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

MTL vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 102 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nathan MacKinnonCOL
4.1± 2.3high
Nazem KadriCOL
3.1± 2.3high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high

Goals

Nathan MacKinnonCOL
0.7± 0.7high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Nathan MacKinnonCOL
1.5± 1.2high
Martin NecasCOL
1.2± 1.0high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Colorado AvalancheMontreal Canadiens

Elsewhere in the NHL