Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3TB

WPG

21-25-7

34-14-4

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesTB leads series 1-0VegasTB -185

WPG · top performer

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

1Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Darren Raddysh

D · #43

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:39
K. ConnorLW · #81	1	0	-1	5	0	0	0	22:28
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	15:55
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	9:20
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	14:25
V. NamestnikovC · #7	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	13:25
N. NiederreiterRW · #62	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:00
T. PearsonLW · #70	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:09
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	0	-2	3	2	2	2	15:14
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	1	-1	0	2	1	0	21:20
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	15:29
G. VilardiC · #13	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	20:06

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	19:59
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	26:35
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	-1	6	3	1	0	19:40
D. SambergD · #54	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	21:26
L. SchennD · #5	0	0	-2	0	6	2	0	11:48
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	-3	1	0	2	0	16:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	36	3	33	.917	58:24

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:58
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	16:26
J. FinleyC · #62	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	10:15
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	2	1	0	1	2	0	16:51
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:40
Y. GourdeC · #37	1	2	2	2	4	0	0	18:40
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:00
B. HagelLW · #38	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	20:48
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:53
D. JamesC · #17	1	0	2	3	1	0	0	11:30
N. KucherovRW · #86	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	15:22
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	12:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlileD · #67	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	15:13
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	17:52
M. CrozierD · #24	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:43
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	20:37
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	1	3	3	0	0	2	21:58
D. RaddyshD · #43	1	2	3	5	0	0	0	23:43

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	24	1	23	.958	59:27

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TB leads series 1-0

Jan 30

WPG1@

TB4today

Mar 6

TB1@

WPG4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG+15439%

TB-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat WPG 4-1. D. Raddysh led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WPG	0	1	0	1
TB	1	2	1	4

Period scoring

WPG won 0 · TB won 3

WPG

Play-by-play · 314 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WPG 1·TB 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WPG 1·TB 4
3rd·19:11
Nick Paul shot blocked by Cole Koepke
·
WPG 1·TB 4
3rd·18:52
Jack Finley faceoff won against Morgan Barron
·
WPG 1·TB 4
3rd·18:52
Nikita Kucherov Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (14), Zemgus Girgensons (7)
· ·
WPG 1·TB 4
3rd·17:29
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Cole Perfetti
·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·17:16
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Jonathan Toews
·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·17:16
Goalie Stopped
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·17:12
Kyle Connor Snap Shot Wide Left
·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·17:08
Gabriel Vilardi Snap Shot Wide Left
·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·16:56
Pontus Holmberg Slap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·16:41
Elias Salomonsson hit Zemgus Girgensons
·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·16:19
Elias Salomonsson Snap Shot Wide Left
·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·16:10
Elias Salomonsson Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·16:09
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·16:09
Puck in Netting
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·16:07
Morgan Barron Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·15:58
Darren Raddysh Slap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·15:43
Dylan DeMelo Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·15:24
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Morgan Barron
·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·15:24
Goalie Stopped
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·15:22
Adam Lowry hit Dominic James
·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·15:22
Erik Cernak Slap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·15:18
Adam Lowry hit Erik Cernak
·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·15:14
Erik Cernak shot blocked by Logan Stanley
·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·14:33
Declan Carlile Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·14:17
Nick Paul Backhand saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·14:03
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·14:03
Puck Frozen - Goalie
WPG 1·TB 3
3rd·13:59
Anthony Cirelli Wrap-around saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 1·TB 3

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG +154/TB -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Winnipeg Jets, 4–1.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 skaters with EDGE

Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
DIST MI293.099+
Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
SKATE MPH24.299
Morgan BarronWPG · C
SHOT MPH95.697
Josh MorrisseyWPG · D
DIST MI282.397
Darren RaddyshTOR · D
SHOT MPH97.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.2%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
70.5%
P(TB win)
45%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
70.5%
P(TB win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
70.4%
P(TB win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-185

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

TB vs WPG.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

Kyle ConnorWPG
3.7± 1.8high
Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Kyle ConnorWPG
0.6± 0.8high
Jake GuentzelTB
0.4± 0.5high

Points

Mark ScheifeleWPG
1.4± 1.2high
Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands