Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at NJ?

The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NJ

NSH

24-23-6

28-24-2

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesNJ leads series 1-0VegasNJ -125

NSH · top performer

Filip Forsberg

LW · #9

1Points

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

Nico Hischier

C · #13

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	12:50
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	18:30
F. ForsbergLW · #9	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	19:26
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	15:58
T. JostC · #17	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:10
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	1	0	3	1	0	0	15:14
M. McCarronC · #47	1	0	0	1	3	4	0	16:28
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	22:04
C. SmithRW · #36	0	1	0	0	1	1	4	16:00
S. StamkosC · #91	0	0	-2	5	2	1	0	14:08
O. WiesblattC · #89	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	9:20
M. WoodRW · #71	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	11:39
N. BlankenburgD · #37	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:52
R. JosiD · #59	0	0	-1	3	0	3	0	28:08
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:57
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	28:27
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	1	0	2	0	1	2	16:03

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AnnunenG · #29	35	3	32	.914	60:42

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrattLW · #63	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	20:51
C. BrownRW · #16	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	19:12
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	0	2	6	1	0	13:30
E. DadonovLW · #33	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:11
L. GlendeningC · #14	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	8:36
A. GritsyukRW · #81	0	1	1	4	3	3	2	18:46
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	15:48
N. HischierC · #13	1	0	1	7	1	1	0	26:09
J. HughesC · #86	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2:27
T. MeierRW · #28	0	0	-1	5	1	0	0	19:41
D. MercerC · #91	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	16:10
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	0	0	-1	0	5	0	0	8:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	-1	0	5	0	0	16:13
D. HamiltonD · #7	1	0	1	5	1	0	2	20:43
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	21:25
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	16:59
B. PesceD · #22	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	18:51
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	21:20

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarkstromG · #25	29	2	27	.931	60:38

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NJ leads series 1-0

Jan 30

NSH2@

NJ3today

Mar 27

NJ4@

NSH2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSH+10549%

NJ-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat NSH 3-2. N. Hischier led the way — 1 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
NSH	1	0	1	0	2
NJ	0	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

NSH won 1 · NJ won 2

NSH

Play-by-play · 347 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:42
Game End
NSH 2·NJ 3
OT·0:42
End of OT
NSH 2·NJ 3
OT·0:42
Nico Hischier Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (17)
·
NSH 2·NJ 3
OT·0:34
Giveaway by Filip Forsberg
NSH 2·NJ 2
OT·0:00
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·19:36
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·19:36
Hand Pass
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·18:23
Filip Forsberg shot blocked by Brett Pesce
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·18:15
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·18:15
Goalie Stopped
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·18:12
Nico Hischier Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·17:56
Roman Josi Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·17:52
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·17:52
Goalie Stopped
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·17:50
Tyson Jost Slap Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·17:42
Filip Forsberg shot blocked by Jonas Siegenthaler
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·17:02
Michael McCarron faceoff won against Arseny Gritsyuk
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·17:02
Goalie Stopped
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·16:59
Arseny Gritsyuk Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·16:34
Timo Meier shot blocked by Roman Josi
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·16:27
Connor Brown Snap Shot High and Wide Left
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·16:14
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·16:14
Goalie Stopped
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·16:11
Nico Hischier Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·15:35
Connor Brown Tip-In Wide Left
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·15:34
Giveaway by Nick Perbix
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·15:30
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NSH 2·NJ 2
3rd·15:30
Goalie Stopped
NSH 2·NJ 2

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·NSH +105/NJ -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils held off Nashville Predators, 3–2 in overtime.

NSH +1.5 cashed (NJ won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.2%

ensemble · NJ favored

Elo Static
58.2%
P(NJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(NJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(NJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at NJ?: The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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