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FINAL+1NJ
NSH

NSH

24-23-6

23
NJ

NJ

28-24-2

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesNJ leads series 1-0VegasNJ -125

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils held off Nashville Predators, 3–2 in overtime.

NSH +1.5 cashed (NJ won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NSH · top performer

NSH
Filip Forsberg

Filip Forsberg

LW · #9

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

NJ
Jesper Bratt

Jesper Bratt

LW · #63

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Nashville Predators at New Jersey Devils · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
2
3
NSH24-23-6NJ28-24-2
NSH

NSH

24-23-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NJ

NJ

28-24-2

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Season series

NJ leads series 1-0

Jan 30NSHNSH2@NJNJ3today
Mar 27NJNJ4@NSHNSH2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSHNSH+10549%
NJNJ-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat NSH 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
NSH10102
NJ01113

Period scoring

NSH won 1 · NJ won 2

1
0

1

0
1

2

1
1

3

0
1

OT

NSH
NJ

Play-by-play · 347 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·0:42

    Game End

    NSH 2·NJ 3

  2. OT·0:42

    End of OT

    NSH 2·NJ 3

  3. OT·0:42

    Nico Hischier Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (17)

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 3

  4. OT·0:34

    Giveaway by Filip Forsberg

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  5. OT·0:00

    Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Nico Hischier

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  6. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  7. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  8. 3rd·19:36

    Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Nico Hischier

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  9. 3rd·19:36

    Hand Pass

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  10. 3rd·18:23

    Filip Forsberg shot blocked by Brett Pesce

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  11. 3rd·18:15

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  12. 3rd·18:15

    Goalie Stopped

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  13. 3rd·18:12

    Nico Hischier Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  14. 3rd·17:56

    Roman Josi Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  15. 3rd·17:52

    Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Nico Hischier

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  16. 3rd·17:52

    Goalie Stopped

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  17. 3rd·17:50

    Tyson Jost Slap Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  18. 3rd·17:42

    Filip Forsberg shot blocked by Jonas Siegenthaler

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  19. 3rd·17:02

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against Arseny Gritsyuk

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  20. 3rd·17:02

    Goalie Stopped

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  21. 3rd·16:59

    Arseny Gritsyuk Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  22. 3rd·16:34

    Timo Meier shot blocked by Roman Josi

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  23. 3rd·16:27

    Connor Brown Snap Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  24. 3rd·16:14

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Michael McCarron

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  25. 3rd·16:14

    Goalie Stopped

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  26. 3rd·16:11

    Nico Hischier Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  27. 3rd·15:35

    Connor Brown Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  28. 3rd·15:34

    Giveaway by Nick Perbix

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  29. 3rd·15:30

    Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Nico Hischier

    ·

    NSH 2·NJ 2

  30. 3rd·15:30

    Goalie Stopped

    NSH 2·NJ 2

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

NJ

Home

29

Shots

35

0.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

4

29

Faceoffs W

29

14

Blocks

19

16

Giveaways

18

3

Takeaways

6

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·NSH +105/NJ -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497
  • Filip ForsbergNSH · LW
    DIST MI246.195
  • Nick BlankenburgCOL · D
    SKATE MPH22.591
  • Roman JosiNSH · D
    DIST MI245.490

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR