Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1STL

FLA

28-22-3

STL

20-25-9

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesSTL wins series 2-0VegasFLA -155

FLA · top performer

Matthew Tkachuk

LW · #19

3Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Jordan Kyrou

RW · #25

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	0	1	-1	0	1	0	2	22:09
A.J. GreerLW · #10	1	0	1	1	1	0	5	7:27
L. KuninC · #71	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	8:21
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	13:23
B. MarchandLW · #63	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	11:19
S. ReinhartC · #13	1	1	-2	3	4	2	0	22:52
E. RodriguesC · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	18:41
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	15:30
C. SchwindtRW · #79	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	6:57
M. TkachukLW · #19	2	1	0	5	0	0	2	23:41
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	16:42
S. VilmanisLW · #95	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	8:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. BalinskisD · #26	0	1	-2	3	3	1	0	20:43
T. BjornfotD · #22	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:28
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	-2	0	2	1	2	23:10
G. ForslingD · #42	0	1	-2	1	0	2	0	26:58
N. MikkolaD · #77	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	18:57
J. PetryD · #2	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	11:41

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. TarasovG · #40	31	5	26	.839	59:44

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:11
N. BjugstadC · #77	0	0	-1	0	1	0	6	7:39
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	21:57
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	0	1	2	1	4	13:31
R. FabbriC · #9	0	0	-1	2	3	1	0	8:51
J. KyrouRW · #25	1	2	1	3	0	1	0	17:51
J. NeighboursLW · #63	1	0	2	1	2	1	0	17:30
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	16:48
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	14:11
O. SundqvistC · #70	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	12:55
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	11:52
N. WalkerLW · #26	0	0	1	0	5	0	2	11:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	1	3	2	0	2	2	23:52
J. FaulkD · #72	0	2	-1	4	0	2	0	25:11
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	19:53
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	12:06
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	1	2	3	3	0	21:41
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	0	1	2	1	5	13:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	20	4	16	.800	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

28.6

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

STL wins series 2-0

Dec 20

STL6@

FLA2

Jan 30

FLA4@

STL5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA-15561%

STL+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 29 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat FLA 5-4. J. Kyrou led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	2	2	0	4
STL	3	1	1	5

Period scoring

FLA won 1 · STL won 2

FLA

STL

Play-by-play · 296 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 4·STL 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 4·STL 5
3rd·19:51
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 4·STL 5
3rd·19:51
Timeout - Visitor
FLA 4·STL 5
3rd·19:51
Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (21), Jordan Kyrou (15)
· ·
FLA 4·STL 5
3rd·19:46
Jordan Kyrou shot blocked by Sam Reinhart
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·19:00
Jimmy Snuggerud Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·18:30
Justin Faulk Slap Shot High and Wide Left
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·18:06
Sam Reinhart faceoff won against Pavel Buchnevich
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·18:06
Timeout - Home
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·18:06
Niko Mikkola Interference - Goalkeeper against Joel Hofer
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·17:55
Carter Verhaeghe Snap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·17:16
Evan Rodrigues Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·17:08
Colton Parayko Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·16:56
Gustav Forsling Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·16:46
Evan Rodrigues faceoff won against Pavel Buchnevich
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·16:46
Matthew Tkachuk Roughing against Joel Hofer
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·16:46
Joel Hofer Roughing against Matthew Tkachuk served by Jimmy Snuggerud
· ·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·16:30
Justin Faulk Slap Shot Short
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·16:21
Giveaway by Daniil Tarasov
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·15:55
A.J. Greer Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·15:49
Logan Mailloux Slap Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·15:46
Uvis Balinskis hit Jordan Kyrou
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·15:12
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Cole Schwindt
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·15:12
Off-side
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·15:10
Takeaway by Evan Rodrigues
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·15:05
Eetu Luostarinen Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·15:04
Gustav Forsling shot blocked by Mackie Samoskevich
·
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·14:22
Giveaway by Mackie Samoskevich
FLA 4·STL 4
3rd·14:10
Robby Fabbri Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
FLA 4·STL 4

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 5.5·FLA -155/STL +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues held off Florida Panthers, 5–4.

STL +1.5 cashed (FLA lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.4%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
47.4%
P(STL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
47.4%
P(STL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
47.4%
P(STL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Florida PanthersSt. Louis Blues

Elsewhere in the NHL