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FINAL+3BOS
PHI

PHI

24-20-9

36
BOS

BOS

32-20-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesBOS leads series 1-0VegasBOS -162

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins held off Philadelphia Flyers, 6–3.

BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Travis Konecny

Travis Konecny

RW · #11

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

BOS
Fraser Minten

Fraser Minten

C · #93

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
6
PHI24-20-9BOS32-20-3
PHI

PHI

24-20-9

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BOS

BOS

32-20-3

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

12

Season series

BOS leads series 1-0

Jan 30PHIPHI3@BOSBOS6today
Feb 28BOSBOS1@PHIPHI3
Apr 5BOSBOS1@PHIPHI2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI+13642%
BOSBOS-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat PHI 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PHI0213
BOS2316

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · BOS won 2

0
2

1

2
3

2

1
1

3

PHI
BOS

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  3. 3rd·19:47

    Sean Kuraly faceoff won against Trevor Zegras

    ·

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  4. 3rd·19:47

    Puck in Crowd

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  5. 3rd·19:24

    Bobby Brink hit Mason Lohrei

    ·

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  6. 3rd·19:21

    Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Trevor Zegras

    ·

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  7. 3rd·19:21

    Goalie Stopped

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  8. 3rd·19:20

    Nikita Grebenkin Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  9. 3rd·19:14

    Giveaway by Nikita Zadorov

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  10. 3rd·18:58

    Sean Kuraly faceoff won against Trevor Zegras

    ·

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  11. 3rd·18:58

    Michael Eyssimont Roughing against Nick Seeler

    ·

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  12. 3rd·18:58

    Nick Seeler Roughing against Michael Eyssimont

    ·

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  13. 3rd·18:58

    Denver Barkey Roughing against Matthew Poitras

    ·

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  14. 3rd·18:58

    Matthew Poitras Roughing against Denver Barkey

    ·

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  15. 3rd·18:36

    Owen Tippett Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  16. 3rd·18:19

    Noah Cates faceoff won against Matthew Poitras

    ·

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  17. 3rd·18:19

    Matvei Michkov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (7), Owen Tippett (16)

    · ·

    PHI 3·BOS 6

  18. 3rd·18:17

    Denver Barkey Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 2·BOS 6

  19. 3rd·18:15

    Denver Barkey Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    PHI 2·BOS 6

  20. 3rd·18:14

    Owen Tippett Slap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    PHI 2·BOS 6

  21. 3rd·18:08

    Giveaway by Sean Kuraly

    PHI 2·BOS 6

  22. 3rd·17:53

    Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    PHI 2·BOS 6

  23. 3rd·17:53

    Andrew Peeke Tripping against Rasmus Ristolainen

    ·

    PHI 2·BOS 6

  24. 3rd·17:50

    Rasmus Ristolainen Backhand saved by Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    PHI 2·BOS 6

  25. 3rd·17:31

    Fraser Minten faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    PHI 2·BOS 6

  26. 3rd·17:31

    Goalie Stopped

    PHI 2·BOS 6

  27. 3rd·17:29

    Nicolas Deslauriers Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    PHI 2·BOS 6

  28. 3rd·17:01

    Mark Kastelic shot blocked by Trevor Zegras

    ·

    PHI 2·BOS 6

  29. 3rd·16:45

    Noah Juulsen hit Mark Kastelic

    ·

    PHI 2·BOS 6

  30. 3rd·16:30

    Sean Kuraly faceoff won against Trevor Zegras

    ·

    PHI 2·BOS 6

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

36

Shots

27

33.3

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

12

23

Faceoffs W

30

17

Blocks

9

19

Giveaways

19

4

Takeaways

6

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 6.5·PHI +136/BOS -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693
  • Christian DvorakPHI · C
    BURSTS3492
  • Marat KhusnutdinovBOS · C
    SKATE MPH23.092

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BOS win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR