Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3BOS

PHI

24-20-9

BOS

32-20-3

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesBOS leads series 1-0VegasBOS -162

PHI · top performer

Travis Konecny

RW · #11

2Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

Fraser Minten

C · #93

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	1	-1	1	1	0	4	16:26
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	16:11
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	16:26
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	-1	4	5	0	0	13:57
N. DeslauriersLW · #44	0	0	-1	3	9	0	0	12:12
C. DvorakC · #22	0	1	-1	1	1	1	0	15:37
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	1	0	-1	5	1	0	0	13:43
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	-1	1	7	3	2	12:50
T. KonecnyRW · #11	1	1	-1	5	1	0	0	17:31
M. MichkovRW · #39	1	0	-1	2	0	1	0	12:49
O. TippettRW · #74	0	1	-1	7	2	0	0	16:08
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	16:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	23:06
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	0	-2	0	3	2	0	13:35
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	21:53
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	21:41
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	-2	2	0	2	2	14:45
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	20:43

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ErssonG · #33	20	5	15	.750	40:00
D. VladarG · #80	6	0	6	1.000	19:46

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	1	0	3	3	0	0	0	13:07
M. EyssimontC · #81	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	10:02
M. GeekieC · #39	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	17:58
T. JeannotLW · #84	1	0	-1	1	3	1	0	15:04
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	-2	2	2	0	2	14:10
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:37
S. KuralyC · #52	0	1	-1	2	1	1	0	16:00
F. MintenC · #93	1	2	3	3	1	0	0	15:00
C. MittelstadtC · #11	1	2	3	1	0	0	0	14:54
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	22:40
M. PoitrasC · #51	0	0	0	5	0	1	2	11:28
P. ZachaC · #18	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:46

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	17:26
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	1	0	0	3	2	20:04
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	1	1	0	2	2	20:35
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	1	0	2	1	1	0	20:54
A. PeekeD · #26	0	2	3	1	2	0	2	20:03
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	20:46

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	36	3	33	.917	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BOS leads series 1-0

Jan 30

PHI3@

BOS6today

Feb 28

BOS1@

PHI3

Apr 5

BOS1@

PHI2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+13642%

BOS-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat PHI 6-3. F. Minten led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PHI	0	2	1	3
BOS	2	3	1	6

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · BOS won 2

PHI

BOS

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·19:47
Sean Kuraly faceoff won against Trevor Zegras
·
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·19:47
Puck in Crowd
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·19:24
Bobby Brink hit Mason Lohrei
·
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·19:21
Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Trevor Zegras
·
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·19:21
Goalie Stopped
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·19:20
Nikita Grebenkin Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·19:14
Giveaway by Nikita Zadorov
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·18:58
Sean Kuraly faceoff won against Trevor Zegras
·
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·18:58
Michael Eyssimont Roughing against Nick Seeler
·
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·18:58
Nick Seeler Roughing against Michael Eyssimont
·
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·18:58
Denver Barkey Roughing against Matthew Poitras
·
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·18:58
Matthew Poitras Roughing against Denver Barkey
·
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·18:36
Owen Tippett Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·18:19
Noah Cates faceoff won against Matthew Poitras
·
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·18:19
Matvei Michkov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (7), Owen Tippett (16)
· ·
PHI 3·BOS 6
3rd·18:17
Denver Barkey Snap Shot Wide Right
·
PHI 2·BOS 6
3rd·18:15
Denver Barkey Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
PHI 2·BOS 6
3rd·18:14
Owen Tippett Slap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
PHI 2·BOS 6
3rd·18:08
Giveaway by Sean Kuraly
PHI 2·BOS 6
3rd·17:53
Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
PHI 2·BOS 6
3rd·17:53
Andrew Peeke Tripping against Rasmus Ristolainen
·
PHI 2·BOS 6
3rd·17:50
Rasmus Ristolainen Backhand saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
PHI 2·BOS 6
3rd·17:31
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
PHI 2·BOS 6
3rd·17:31
Goalie Stopped
PHI 2·BOS 6
3rd·17:29
Nicolas Deslauriers Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
PHI 2·BOS 6
3rd·17:01
Mark Kastelic shot blocked by Trevor Zegras
·
PHI 2·BOS 6
3rd·16:45
Noah Juulsen hit Mark Kastelic
·
PHI 2·BOS 6
3rd·16:30
Sean Kuraly faceoff won against Trevor Zegras
·
PHI 2·BOS 6

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 6.5·PHI +136/BOS -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins held off Philadelphia Flyers, 6–3.

BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.0%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
63.0%
P(BOS win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.0%
P(BOS win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.0%
P(BOS win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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