Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at VAN?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2VAN

ANA

28-23-3

VAN

18-31-5

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesVAN leads series 2-0VegasANA -155

ANA · top performer

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

0Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Jake DeBrusk

LW · #74

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ColangeloRW · #12	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:29
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	0	-1	4	1	0	0	20:01
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	22:31
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	11:35
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	8:10
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	19:37
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	-1	4	1	0	0	16:35
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	0	3	0	1	2	18:19
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	-2	3	1	0	0	21:00
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	0	3	4	1	2	13:25
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	9:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GudasD · #7	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:14
D. HellesonD · #14	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	14:13
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	25:07
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	20:26
I. MooreD · #74	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:10
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	-1	2	0	3	0	25:13
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	16:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	25	1	24	.960	57:47

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:01
F. ChytilC · #72	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:59
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	1	1	6	0	0	2	16:27
C. GarlandRW · #8	0	0	0	1	0	3	2	19:50
D. KampfC · #64	0	0	1	2	2	1	0	15:32
E. KaneLW · #91	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	15:55
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:18
J. LekkerimakiRW · #23	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:33
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:27
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:38
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	17:49
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. HronekD · #17	0	1	2	2	1	1	0	27:00
P. JosephD · #7	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	13:01
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	17:39
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	23:59
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:37
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	15:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. TolopiloG · #60	32	0	32	1.000	57:49
K. LankinenG · #32	1	0	1	1.000	2:11

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

VAN leads series 2-0

Nov 27

VAN5@

ANA4

Jan 30

ANA0@

VAN2today

Mar 25

ANA5@

VAN3

Apr 13

VAN4@

ANA3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA-15561%

VAN+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VAN beat ANA 2-0. J. DeBrusk led the way — 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	0	0	0	0
VAN	0	0	2	2

Period scoring

ANA won 0 · VAN won 1

ANA

VAN

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 0·VAN 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 0·VAN 2
3rd·19:46
Cutter Gauthier Tip-In Wide Left
·
ANA 0·VAN 2
3rd·19:32
Teddy Blueger faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
ANA 0·VAN 2
3rd·19:32
Teddy Blueger Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (27)
·
ANA 0·VAN 2
3rd·19:11
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Teddy Blueger
·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·19:11
Conor Garland Slashing against Olen Zellweger
·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·19:10
Cutter Gauthier shot blocked by Marcus Pettersson
· ·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·19:03
Cutter Gauthier Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·18:22
Beckett Sennecke Snap Shot Wide Left
·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·18:14
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·18:14
Puck in Netting
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·18:12
Alex Killorn Tip-In Above Crossbar
·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·17:47
Elias Pettersson faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
· ·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·17:47
Icing
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·17:41
Elias Pettersson Snap Shot Wide Right
· ·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·17:39
Jackson LaCombe Wrap-around saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·17:35
Beckett Sennecke shot blocked by Elias Pettersson
· ·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·17:27
Olen Zellweger hit Elias Pettersson
· ·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·17:17
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·17:17
Off-side
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·17:11
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·17:11
Puck in Netting
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·16:26
Teddy Blueger faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·16:26
Icing
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·15:28
Evander Kane shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe
·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·15:19
Giveaway by Alex Killorn
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·14:53
Elias Pettersson faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
· ·
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·14:53
Net Dislodged Offensive Skater
ANA 0·VAN 1
3rd·14:40
Jansen Harkins Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
ANA 0·VAN 1

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA -155/VAN +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ancouver Canucks held off Anaheim Ducks, 2–0.

VAN +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.3%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
46.3%
P(VAN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
46.3%
P(VAN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
46.3%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at VAN?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Anaheim DucksVancouver Canucks

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