Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at CAR?

The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CAR

UTA

28-22-4

CAR

33-15-5

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesCAR leads series 1-0VegasCAR -192

UTA · top performer

Kailer Yamamoto

RW · #56

3Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Andrei Svechnikov

RW · #37

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. ButLW · #19	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	12:44
M. CarconeLW · #53	1	1	2	2	4	0	0	12:52
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	0	-2	2	7	1	0	19:50
B. HaytonC · #27	0	1	1	3	0	0	4	14:01
C. KellerRW · #9	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	18:11
J. McBainC · #22	0	2	2	1	3	1	0	17:21
L. O'BrienC · #38	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	10:50
J. PeterkaRW · #77	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:43
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	0	-1	2	1	0	2	19:14
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	-1	1	1	1	2	16:10
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	7:25
K. YamamotoRW · #56	2	1	2	5	0	0	0	11:25

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	1	2	0	3	0	17:57
N. DeSimoneD · #57	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	11:19
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	19:32
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	21:42
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	-1	0	4	3	0	20:44
M. SergachevD · #98	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	24:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	33	5	28	.848	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	2	3	3	0	0	21:15
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	1	-1	1	0	1	0	15:46
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	9:56
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	17:56
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	14:29
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	10:39
S. JarvisC · #24	0	1	1	2	4	0	0	19:50
J. KotkaniemiC · #82	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	9:26
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	14:48
J. StaalC · #11	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:35
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	-2	2	1	1	0	15:18
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	2	1	1	4	2	0	2	19:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	1	1	5	1	1	0	19:56
S. GostisbehereD · #4	2	1	-1	3	0	0	0	20:24
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	18:34
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	-2	2	3	0	0	16:27
J. SlavinD · #74	0	1	2	1	0	2	0	19:28
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	-1	2	2	2	2	17:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	25	4	21	.840	59:01

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

40.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CAR leads series 1-0

Jan 30

UTA4@

CAR5today

Apr 11

CAR4@

UTA1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTA+16038%

CAR-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat UTA 5-4. A. Svechnikov led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
UTA	0	3	1	4
CAR	1	1	3	5

Period scoring

UTA won 1 · CAR won 2

UTA

CAR

Play-by-play · 333 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
UTA 4·CAR 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
UTA 4·CAR 5
3rd·19:55
Jalen Chatfield Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 4·CAR 5
3rd·19:48
Nick Schmaltz hit Sebastian Aho
·
UTA 4·CAR 5
3rd·19:46
Sebastian Aho Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 4·CAR 5
3rd·19:30
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz
·
UTA 4·CAR 5
3rd·19:30
Jordan Staal Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Martinook (10), Jalen Chatfield (12)
· ·
UTA 4·CAR 5
3rd·19:28
Jordan Martinook Tip-In Wide Left
·
UTA 4·CAR 4
3rd·18:59
Jordan Martinook Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
UTA 4·CAR 4
3rd·18:57
Jalen Chatfield Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 4·CAR 4
3rd·18:44
Jack McBain hit Jalen Chatfield
·
UTA 4·CAR 4
3rd·18:38
Jack McBain faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
UTA 4·CAR 4
3rd·18:38
On-Ice Official
UTA 4·CAR 4
3rd·18:38
Puck in Benches
UTA 4·CAR 4
3rd·18:33
Jack McBain faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
UTA 4·CAR 4
3rd·18:33
Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (16), Jaccob Slavin (3)
· ·
UTA 4·CAR 4
3rd·18:24
Takeaway by Kevin Stenlund
UTA 4·CAR 3
3rd·18:12
Jackson Blake Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 4·CAR 3
3rd·18:08
Giveaway by Lawson Crouse
UTA 4·CAR 3
3rd·18:01
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
UTA 4·CAR 3
3rd·18:01
Andrei Svechnikov Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (27), Nikolaj Ehlers (27)
· ·
UTA 4·CAR 3
3rd·17:59
Shayne Gostisbehere Slap Shot Wide Left
·
UTA 4·CAR 2
3rd·17:50
Nikolaj Ehlers Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 4·CAR 2
3rd·17:29
Nikolaj Ehlers shot blocked by Jack McBain
·
UTA 4·CAR 2
3rd·15:45
Jack McBain faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
UTA 4·CAR 2
3rd·15:45
Icing
UTA 4·CAR 2
3rd·15:27
Shayne Gostisbehere Slap Shot Wide Left
·
UTA 4·CAR 2
3rd·15:19
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
UTA 4·CAR 2
3rd·15:19
Goalie Stopped
UTA 4·CAR 2
3rd·15:17
Seth Jarvis Slap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 4·CAR 2

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·UTA +160/CAR -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Utah Mammoth, 5–4.

UTA +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.1%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
59.1%
P(CAR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.1%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.1%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at CAR?: The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Utah MammothCarolina Hurricanes

Elsewhere in the NHL