NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MIN

CGY

21-26-6

MIN

31-14-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-1VegasMIN -185

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild held off Calgary Flames, 4–1.

MIN -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CGY · top performer

Morgan Frost

C · #16

1Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Kirill Kaprizov

LW · #97

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

CGY21-26-6

MIN31-14-10

CGY21-26-6MIN31-14-10

CGY

21-26-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

MIN

31-14-10

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

MIN wins series 2-1

Nov 10

CGY0@

MIN2

Dec 5

MIN1@

CGY4

Jan 30

CGY1@

MIN4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+15439%

MIN-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat CGY 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	0	0	1	1
MIN	2	0	2	4

Period scoring

CGY won 0 · MIN won 2

CGY

MIN

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·19:29
Marcus Foligno Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·19:28
Giveaway by Jonathan Huberdeau
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·19:28
Danila Yurov shot blocked by Morgan Frost
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·19:18
Vincent Hinostroza Tip-In saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·19:06
Matvei Gridin Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·19:05
Matvei Gridin Snap Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·18:37
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Nico Sturm
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·18:37
Goalie Stopped
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·18:34
Marcus Johansson Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·18:24
Joel Farabee Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·18:18
Adam Klapka hit David Jiricek
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·18:13
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Justin Kirkland
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·18:13
Puck in Netting
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·18:11
Adam Klapka Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·17:49
Giveaway by Joel Farabee
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·17:45
Justin Kirkland faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·17:45
Kirill Kaprizov Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (22), Joel Eriksson Ek (23)
· ·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·17:38
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 1·MIN 3
3rd·17:38
Goalie Stopped
CGY 1·MIN 3
3rd·17:36
Matvei Gridin Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
CGY 1·MIN 3
3rd·17:17
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
CGY 1·MIN 3
3rd·17:17
Matt Boldy Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (37), Quinn Hughes (46)
· ·
CGY 1·MIN 3
3rd·16:57
Kirill Kaprizov Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CGY 1·MIN 2
3rd·16:55
Matt Boldy Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 1·MIN 2
3rd·16:41
Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 1·MIN 2
3rd·16:34
Matt Boldy Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CGY 1·MIN 2
3rd·16:11
Matt Boldy Slap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 1·MIN 2
3rd·16:07
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 1·MIN 2

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 5.5·CGY +154/MIN -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE

Brock FaberMIN · D
BURSTS2799+
Matt BoldyMIN · LW
SHOT MPH92.897
Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
SHOT MPH100.297
Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · C
SKATE MPH23.696
Marcus JohanssonMIN · LW
SKATE MPH23.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-185

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MIN vs CGY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Matt BoldyMIN
3.8± 1.9high
Joel Eriksson EkMIN
3.3± 1.6high
Ryan HartmanMIN
3.0± 2.3high

Goals

Matt BoldyMIN
0.5± 0.7high
Blake ColemanCGY
0.4± 0.7high
Morgan FrostCGY
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Quinn HughesMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Kirill KaprizovMIN
1.2± 1.1high
Mats ZuccarelloMIN
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands