Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MIN

CGY

21-26-6

MIN

31-14-10

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-1VegasMIN -185

CGY · top performer

Morgan Frost

C · #16

1Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Kirill Kaprizov

LW · #97

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	20:30
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	18:15
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	11:25
M. FrostC · #16	1	0	0	2	0	2	0	16:25
M. GridinRW · #92	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	16:26
J. HuberdeauLW · #10	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	16:48
N. KadriC · #91	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	16:12
J. KirklandC · #23	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:35
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	0	1	3	0	5	9:17
M. PospisilC · #76	0	0	-1	1	5	0	2	12:36
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	18:05
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	16:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	23:08
H. BrzustewiczD · #48	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	16:15
J. HanleyD · #44	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12:20
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	17:50
M. WeegarD · #52	0	0	-1	1	1	7	2	20:02
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	-1	3	3	1	0	24:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CooleyG · #1	23	3	20	.870	59:53

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	17:26
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	16:27
M. FolignoLW · #17	0	0	1	2	3	0	5	8:34
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	0	0	0	0	6	2	18:17
V. HinostrozaC · #18	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:21
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	13:54
K. KaprizovLW · #97	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	19:27
N. SturmC · #78	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	9:48
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	13:26
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	16:08
D. YurovRW · #22	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:58
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:27

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. FaberD · #7	0	1	1	2	0	0	2	24:01
Q. HughesD · #43	0	1	0	4	0	0	2	27:57
D. HuntD · #48	0	1	0	1	0	3	0	15:09
D. JiricekD · #55	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:38
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	20:22
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	18:40

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GustavssonG · #32	30	1	29	.967	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

MIN wins series 2-1

Nov 10

CGY0@

MIN2

Dec 5

MIN1@

CGY4

Jan 30

CGY1@

MIN4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+15439%

MIN-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat CGY 4-1. K. Kaprizov led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	0	0	1	1
MIN	2	0	2	4

Period scoring

CGY won 0 · MIN won 2

CGY

MIN

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·19:29
Marcus Foligno Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·19:28
Giveaway by Jonathan Huberdeau
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·19:28
Danila Yurov shot blocked by Morgan Frost
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·19:18
Vincent Hinostroza Tip-In saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·19:06
Matvei Gridin Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·19:05
Matvei Gridin Snap Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·18:37
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Nico Sturm
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·18:37
Goalie Stopped
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·18:34
Marcus Johansson Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·18:24
Joel Farabee Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·18:18
Adam Klapka hit David Jiricek
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·18:13
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Justin Kirkland
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·18:13
Puck in Netting
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·18:11
Adam Klapka Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·17:49
Giveaway by Joel Farabee
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·17:45
Justin Kirkland faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·17:45
Kirill Kaprizov Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (22), Joel Eriksson Ek (23)
· ·
CGY 1·MIN 4
3rd·17:38
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 1·MIN 3
3rd·17:38
Goalie Stopped
CGY 1·MIN 3
3rd·17:36
Matvei Gridin Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
CGY 1·MIN 3
3rd·17:17
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
CGY 1·MIN 3
3rd·17:17
Matt Boldy Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (37), Quinn Hughes (46)
· ·
CGY 1·MIN 3
3rd·16:57
Kirill Kaprizov Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CGY 1·MIN 2
3rd·16:55
Matt Boldy Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 1·MIN 2
3rd·16:41
Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 1·MIN 2
3rd·16:34
Matt Boldy Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CGY 1·MIN 2
3rd·16:11
Matt Boldy Slap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 1·MIN 2
3rd·16:07
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 1·MIN 2

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 5.5·CGY +154/MIN -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild held off Calgary Flames, 4–1.

MIN -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.7%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
64.7%
P(MIN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.7%
P(MIN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.7%
P(MIN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-185

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Calgary FlamesMinnesota Wild

Elsewhere in the NHL