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FINAL+1WSH
WSH

WSH

26-22-7

43
DET

DET

32-17-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesDET wins series 2-1VegasDET -130

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 4–3.

WSH +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Dylan Strome

Dylan Strome

C · #17

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

DET · top performer

DET
Alex DeBrincat

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
4
3
WSH26-22-7DET32-17-6
WSH

WSH

26-22-7

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DET

DET

32-17-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

4

Season series

DET wins series 2-1

Dec 20DETDET5@WSHWSH2
Dec 21WSHWSH2@DETDET3
Jan 30WSHWSH4@DETDET3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+11048%
DETDET-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat DET 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
WSH102014
DET012003

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · DET won 1

1
0

1

0
1

2

2
2

3

0
0

OT

1
0

SO

WSH
DET

Play-by-play · 296 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    WSH 3·DET 2

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    WSH 3·DET 2

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    WSH 3·DET 2

  4. SO·0:00

    Nic Dowd Goal Backhand

    WSH 3·DET 2

  5. SO·0:00

    Dylan Larkin Backhand Off Crossbar

    ·

    WSH 3·DET 2

  6. SO·0:00

    Ryan Leonard Goal Wrist Shot

    WSH 3·DET 2

  7. SO·0:00

    Patrick Kane Goal Snap Shot

    WSH 3·DET 2

  8. SO·0:00

    Dylan Strome Goal Backhand

    WSH 3·DET 2

  9. SO·0:00

    Lucas Raymond Goal Snap Shot

    WSH 3·DET 2

  10. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    WSH 3·DET 2

  11. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    WSH 3·DET 3

  12. OT·4:50

    Jakob Chychrun Backhand saved by John Gibson

    ·

    WSH 3·DET 3

  13. OT·2:49

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Dylan Larkin

    ·

    WSH 3·DET 3

  14. OT·2:49

    Goalie Stopped

    WSH 3·DET 3

  15. OT·2:47

    Ryan Leonard Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    WSH 3·DET 3

  16. OT·2:06

    Takeaway by Alex DeBrincat

    WSH 3·DET 3

  17. OT·1:16

    Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Andrew Copp

    ·

    WSH 3·DET 3

  18. OT·1:16

    On-Ice Official

    WSH 3·DET 3

  19. OT·1:10

    John Carlson Snap Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    WSH 3·DET 3

  20. OT·0:49

    Dylan Larkin Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    WSH 3·DET 3

  21. OT·0:34

    Dylan Larkin Wrist Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren

    ·

    WSH 3·DET 3

  22. OT·0:00

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Dylan Strome

    ·

    WSH 3·DET 3

  23. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    WSH 3·DET 3

  24. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    WSH 3·DET 3

  25. 3rd·19:07

    Nic Dowd faceoff won against J.T. Compher

    ·

    WSH 3·DET 3

  26. 3rd·19:07

    Challenge League - missed stoppage - goal

    WSH 3·DET 3

  27. 3rd·19:07

    Alex DeBrincat Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (30)

    ·

    WSH 3·DET 3

  28. 3rd·18:44

    Lucas Raymond Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    WSH 3·DET 2

  29. 3rd·18:40

    Takeaway by John Carlson

    WSH 3·DET 2

  30. 3rd·18:35

    Nic Dowd hit Lucas Raymond

    ·

    WSH 3·DET 2

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

DET

Home

23

Shots

21

0.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

4

27

Faceoffs W

23

21

Blocks

17

6

Giveaways

14

4

Takeaways

3

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH +110/DET -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR