Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WSH

WSH

26-22-7

DET

32-17-6

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesDET wins series 2-1VegasDET -130

WSH · top performer

Dylan Strome

C · #17

2Points

—

SOG

DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:21
N. DowdC · #26	1	0	-1	1	6	2	0	17:49
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:13
E. FrankC · #53	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	8:48
H. LapierreC · #29	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6:48
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	0	0	3	4	2	0	15:05
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	16:17
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	1	1	4	3	0	0	16:00
A. ProtasC · #21	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	21:09
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	17:10
D. StromeC · #17	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	18:31
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	0	-2	0	4	2	0	21:13

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	-1	3	0	5	2	27:25
D. ChisholmD · #47	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:22
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	3	3	1	0	0	0	26:58
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	-3	1	2	4	0	21:39
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	20:04
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	16:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. LindgrenG · #79	21	3	18	.857	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	13:56
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	15:07
A. CoppC · #18	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	18:17
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	2	1	2	5	0	1	0	21:28
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	10:13
P. KaneRW · #88	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	19:08
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	15:56
D. LarkinC · #71	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	24:38
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	12:52
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	20:41
E. SoderblomLW · #85	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	11:29
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	18:44
B. ChiarotD · #8	1	0	-2	2	2	1	2	20:40
T. HamonicD · #52	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	13:56
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	19:16
A. Sandin-PellikkaD · #44	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	11:20
M. SeiderD · #53	0	1	2	3	0	1	0	31:57

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	23	3	20	.870	63:12

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DET wins series 2-1

Dec 20

DET5@

WSH2

Dec 21

WSH2@

DET3

Jan 30

WSH4@

DET3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+11048%

DET-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat DET 4-3. D. Strome led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
WSH	1	0	2	0	1	4
DET	0	1	2	0	0	3

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · DET won 1

WSH

DET

Play-by-play · 296 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
WSH 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
WSH 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
WSH 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Nic Dowd Goal Backhand
WSH 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Dylan Larkin Backhand Off Crossbar
·
WSH 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Ryan Leonard Goal Wrist Shot
WSH 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Patrick Kane Goal Snap Shot
WSH 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Dylan Strome Goal Backhand
WSH 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Lucas Raymond Goal Snap Shot
WSH 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
WSH 3·DET 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
WSH 3·DET 3
OT·4:50
Jakob Chychrun Backhand saved by John Gibson
·
WSH 3·DET 3
OT·2:49
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Dylan Larkin
·
WSH 3·DET 3
OT·2:49
Goalie Stopped
WSH 3·DET 3
OT·2:47
Ryan Leonard Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson
·
WSH 3·DET 3
OT·2:06
Takeaway by Alex DeBrincat
WSH 3·DET 3
OT·1:16
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Andrew Copp
·
WSH 3·DET 3
OT·1:16
On-Ice Official
WSH 3·DET 3
OT·1:10
John Carlson Snap Shot saved by John Gibson
·
WSH 3·DET 3
OT·0:49
Dylan Larkin Snap Shot Wide Right
·
WSH 3·DET 3
OT·0:34
Dylan Larkin Wrist Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
WSH 3·DET 3
OT·0:00
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
WSH 3·DET 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
WSH 3·DET 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 3·DET 3
3rd·19:07
Nic Dowd faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
WSH 3·DET 3
3rd·19:07
Challenge League - missed stoppage - goal
WSH 3·DET 3
3rd·19:07
Alex DeBrincat Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (30)
·
WSH 3·DET 3
3rd·18:44
Lucas Raymond Slap Shot Wide Right
·
WSH 3·DET 2
3rd·18:40
Takeaway by John Carlson
WSH 3·DET 2
3rd·18:35
Nic Dowd hit Lucas Raymond
·
WSH 3·DET 2

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH +110/DET -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 4–3.

WSH +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.4%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
63.4%
P(DET win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.4%
P(DET win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.4%
P(DET win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Washington CapitalsDetroit Red Wings

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