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FINAL+1DAL
DAL

DAL

31-14-9

54
VGK

VGK

25-14-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesDAL leads series 1-0VegasVGK -120

Recap · NHL

allas Stars went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 5–4.

DAL +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

DAL
Jamie Benn

Jamie Benn

LW · #14

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

VGK
Keegan Kolesar

Keegan Kolesar

RW · #55

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
5
4
DAL31-14-9VGK25-14-14
DAL

DAL

31-14-9

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VGK

VGK

25-14-14

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

4

Season series

DAL leads series 1-0

Jan 30DALDAL5@VGKVGK4today
Mar 11VGKVGK1@DALDAL2
Mar 22VGKVGK3@DALDAL2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DALDAL+10050%
VGKVGK-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat VGK 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
DAL130015
VGK013004

Period scoring

DAL won 3 · VGK won 1

1
0

1

3
1

2

0
3

3

0
0

OT

1
0

SO

DAL
VGK

Play-by-play · 345 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    DAL 2·VGK 0

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    DAL 2·VGK 0

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    DAL 2·VGK 0

  4. SO·0:00

    Mikko Rantanen Goal Snap Shot

    DAL 2·VGK 0

  5. SO·0:00

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    DAL 2·VGK 0

  6. SO·0:00

    Matt Duchene Backhand Wide Right

    · ·

    DAL 2·VGK 0

  7. SO·0:00

    Pavel Dorofeyev Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    DAL 2·VGK 0

  8. SO·0:00

    Jason Robertson Goal Wrist Shot

    DAL 2·VGK 0

  9. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    DAL 0·VGK 0

  10. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  11. OT·4:39

    Mark Stone Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  12. OT·4:02

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Mikko Rantanen

    ·

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  13. OT·4:02

    Puck in Netting

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  14. OT·3:28

    Mavrik Bourque Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  15. OT·1:57

    Jason Robertson Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  16. OT·1:30

    Mitch Marner Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  17. OT·1:08

    Mikko Rantanen faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  18. OT·1:08

    Puck in Netting

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  19. OT·1:06

    Mitch Marner shot blocked by Sam Steel

    ·

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  20. OT·0:17

    Sam Steel Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  21. OT·0:00

    Roope Hintz faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  22. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  23. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  24. 3rd·19:34

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Radek Faksa

    ·

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  25. 3rd·19:34

    Off-side

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  26. 3rd·19:32

    Giveaway by Ivan Barbashev

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  27. 3rd·19:11

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Roope Hintz

    ·

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  28. 3rd·19:11

    Mitch Marner Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (25)

    ·

    DAL 4·VGK 4

  29. 3rd·19:06

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Matt Duchene

    ·

    DAL 4·VGK 3

  30. 3rd·19:06

    Icing

    DAL 4·VGK 3

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

27

Shots

21

0.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

4

30

Faceoffs W

31

23

Blocks

11

19

Giveaways

15

8

Takeaways

1

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL +100/VGK -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Roope HintzDAL · C
    BURSTS25998
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
    DIST MI54.196

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · VGK favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR