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HOU#6 · American Football Conference
Houston Texans
0-0 (0.0%) · -
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Elo rating
#5 of 32
Elo rating 1592.5 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings
Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Final 5 · 2026
2025-12-21 → 2026-01-18 · Full ATS profile →
Won by 2 vs LV, 23-21, 2025-12-21. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Won by 4 at LAC, 20-16, 2025-12-27. Covered the spread (latest line).
Won by 8 vs IND, 38-30, 2026-01-04. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Won by 24 at PIT, 30-6, 2026-01-12. Covered the spread (latest line).
Lost by 12 at NE, 16-28, 2026-01-18. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01
Graded snap by snap
How good were they, snap to snap?
Their offense ranked 25th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 956 graded plays; the defense ranked 2nd across 891.
EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.
956 off plays · 891 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds
OFFENSE · 2025 REG
-0.028
Team EPA per play
25th of 32lg avg +0.009
DEFENSE · 2025 REG
-0.122
Team EPA per play allowed
2nd of 32lg avg +0.014
The full split956/891 plays
Offense — team-wide, every graded snap
All plays-0.02823
25th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG -0.037 (23rd)
Success41.3%16
27th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 39.9% (27th)
Explosive6.3%16
27th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 7.4% (22nd)
Dropbacks+0.04245
18th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG +0.006 (22nd)
Rushes-0.13510
29th of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG -0.110 (22nd)
Defense — allowed, lower is better
All plays-0.12297
2nd of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG -0.091 (4th)
Success38.2%97
2nd of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 39.2% (2nd)
Explosive6.5%77
8th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 8.6% (22nd)
Dropbacks-0.10697
2nd of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG -0.042 (4th)
Rushes-0.14997
2nd of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG -0.170 (4th)
Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.
Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.
Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG -0.028 · 2024 REG -0.037 · +0.009
Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG -0.122 · 2024 REG -0.091 · -0.031
Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.
nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 956 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1
nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.
Stat leaders
Who carries them
Passing yards
- 1C.J. Stroud19 TD3,041
- 2Davis Mills5 TD915
Rushing yards
- 1Woody Marks2 TD703
- 2Nick Chubb3 TD506
- 3C.J. Stroud1 TD209
- 4Jawhar Jordan0 TD193
- 5British Brooks0 TD78
Receiving yards
- 1Nico Collins6 TD1,117
- 2Dalton Schultz3 TD777
- 3Jayden Higgins6 TD525
- 4Xavier Hutchinson3 TD428
- 5Jaylin Noel2 TD292
Receptions
- 1Dalton Schultz17 G82
- 2Nico Collins15 G71
- 3Jayden Higgins17 G41
- 4Xavier Hutchinson16 G35
- 5Christian Kirk11 G28
Total TDs
- 1C.J. Stroud14 G20
- 2Nico Collins15 G7
- 3Davis Mills6 G6
- 4Jayden Higgins17 G6
- 5Woody Marks16 G5
Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.
2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries
Under center
What the QB is worth
QB value (our estimate)
C.J. Stroud
502 att · n=42 qualified QBs
Our QBR estimate53.1
- EPA / play+0.074
- Accuracy +-0.8%
- Pressure0.2%
Built on +0.074 EPA/play and -0.8% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.
Box-score power tier · league of 32
Where they rank
Middle
avg rank 16.4
YDS
19th
Total yards
PASS
14th
Pass yards
RUSH
22nd
Rush yards
PTS
24th
Points
TO
3rd
Turnovers
Offensive profile · 2025
How the offense plays
Per-game · 17 weeks
Identity · Pass-leaning
68% pass · 32% rush
PASS
RUSH
Total yards
342vs 342 yds/GLeague avg
Passing yards
233vs 225 yds/GLeague avg
Rushing yards
109vs 117 yds/GSlight gap
Points scored
20.1vs 23.5 pts/GSlight gap
Turnovers
0.60vs 0.90 TO/GAbove avg
Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.
2026 Draft Class · 7 picks
The new arrivals.
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- Jun 2
Signed OT Derrick Graham to a contract.
- Jun 1
Waived G Sidy Sow.
- May 26
Signed LB K.C. Ossal and WR Jha'Quan Jackson to contracts.
- May 21
Waived DB Ajani Carter.
Source · ESPN
Offense · 45
The attack
A. Ersery
OT · #79
B. Fisher
OT · #57
B. Smith
OT · #71
B. Jordan
TE · #9
B. Brooks
RB · #44
C.J. Stroud
QB · #7
C. Stover
TE · #8
D. Schultz
TE · #86
D. Sobkowicz
WR · #17
D. Montgomery
RB · #32
D. Mills
QB · #10
D. Graham
OT · #73
D. Turner
WR · #19
E. Ingram
G · #69
E. Cox
C · #65
E. Brown
G · #67
E. Hull
RB · #42
F. Nwaiwu
G · #64
F. Moreau
TE · #87
G. Mertz
QB · #18
J. Andrews
C · #60
J. Neal III
OT · #70
J. Wayne
WR · #89
J. Kingston
OT · #63
J. Patterson
G · #54
J. Jordan
RB · #25
J. Higgins
WR · #81
J. Noel
WR · #13
J. Jackson
WR · #88
J. Kelly
WR · #85
J. Pitsenberger
RB · #31
J. Watson
WR · #84
K. Rutledge
G · #66
L
L. Pryor
TE · #49
L. Bond
WR · #82
M. Klein
TE · #83
N. Collins
WR · #12
N. Whittington
RB · #26
S. Hagen
G · #76
T. Dell
WR · #1
T. Brown
OT · #77
T
T. Saunders
WR · #14
W. Marks
RB · #4
W. Teller
G · #75
X. Hutchinson
WR · #19
Defense · 41
The stop unit
A. Fisher
LB · #59
A. Gaye
DE · #95
A. Huzzie
CB · #28
A. Al-Shaair
LB · #0
B. Codrington
CB · #17
C. Bullock
S · #2
C. Wright
CB · #37
D. Hunter
DE · #55
D. Stingley Jr.
CB · #24
D. Bailey
DT · #96
D. Robinson
DE · #97
D. Horton
DE · #92
E.J. Speed
LB · #45
H. To'oTo'o
LB · #39
J. Ingram
CB · #20
J. Hansen
LB · #35
J. Hummel
LB · #33
J. Pitre
S · #5
J. Hill
LB · #56
J. Reed
S · #23
J. Smith
CB · #22
J. Tafuna
DT · #53
K.C. Ossai
LB · #52
K. Merriweather
S · #21
K. Lassiter
CB · #3
K. Ramsey
S · #27
K. McDonald
DT · #93
K. Hamilton
DT · #58
L. Hall
DE · #90
M.J. Stewart
S · #29
M. Mapu
LB · #14
N. Jones
DT · #91
R. Blankenship
S · #6
S. Harsh
DE · #94
S. Rankins
DT · #98
S. Byrd
DE · #50
S. Hall
CB · #41
T. Togiai
DT · #72
T. Smith
CB · #11
W. Woodaz
LB · #30
W. Anderson Jr.
DE · #51
Special teams · 4
