DET
60-22
IND
19-63
Recap · NBA
etroit Pistons went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 133–121.
IND +16.5 cashed (DET won by 12). Total cleared the 232.5 OVER by 21.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DET · top performer
Paul Reed
F · #7
26
Pts
6
Reb
3
Ast
IND · top performer
Quenton Jackson
G · #29
21
Pts
0
Reb
8
Ast
NBA · Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 22 | 24 | 9-12 | 4-4 | 2-2 | +30 | 4 | 1 | |
| 22 | 9 | 4-5 | 1-2 | — | +28 | 2 | 2 | |
| 22 | 26 | 11-11 | — | 4-4 | +28 | 6 | 3 | |
| 22 | 7 | 3-12 | 1-6 | — | +30 | 8 | 14 | |
| 22 | 7 | 3-4 | — | 1-2 | +28 | 5 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 6 | 5 | 1-2 | — | 3-4 | -4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 17 | 16 | 7-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | -9 | 5 | 0 | |
| 20 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-4 | — | -12 | 5 | 2 | |
| 10 | 2 | 0-1 | — | 2-2 | -7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | 6 | 2-3 | 2-3 | — | -9 | 3 | 1 | |
| 14 | 6 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 3-4 | -9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 15 | 5-10 | 3-7 | 2-2 | -12 | 2 | 3 | |
| 7 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-1 | — | -17 | 5 | 4 | |
| Team | 133 | 50-89 | 15-33 | 18-22 | 48 | 35 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 27 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-2 | -19 | 2 | 4 | |
| 34 | 15 | 6-13 | 3-10 | — | -6 | 11 | 2 | |
| 38 | 18 | 5-14 | 3-8 | 5-6 | -3 | 3 | 6 | |
| 34 | 20 | 7-13 | 4-7 | 2-3 | -6 | 7 | 2 | |
| 30 | 21 | 7-15 | 1-4 | 6-6 | -8 | 0 | 8 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 18 | 21 | 7-12 | 7-11 | — | -11 | 2 | 2 | |
| 24 | 13 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 3-3 | +3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 20 | 8 | 3-7 | 2-4 | — | -3 | 1 | 4 | |
| 14 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-4 | — | -7 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 121 | 41-90 | 23-54 | 16-20 | 31 | 31 | ||
| DNP: J. Walker, T.J. McConnell, B. Sheppard | ||||||||
DNP: J. Walker, T.J. McConnell, B. Sheppard
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
56
FG %
46
35
Ast
31
Season series
DET wins series 4-0
IND112@DET127DET122@IND117IND78@DET121DET133@IND121todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -16.5
Between 10 and —
Total
232.5
Standard · +6.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DET-120092%IND+75012%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 12 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
16.5
0.0 since open
Total
232.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
DETP. Reed
FGame leader · 22 min
26 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
INDQ. Jackson
GGame leader · 30 min
21 PTS · 0 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
DET beat IND 133-121. P. Reed paced them with 26 PTS, 6 REB, 3 AST. DET outscored the other side 41-27 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs DET
Starters vs bench
production by unitDETstarters 55% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 25 REB · 24 AST
GS 82
Bench(10)
60 PTS · 23 REB · 11 AST
GS 44
INDstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
76 PTS · 23 REB · 22 AST
GS 70
Bench(4)
45 PTS · 8 REB · 9 AST
GS 34
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 41 | 40 | 27 | 25 | 133 |
| IND | 27 | 36 | 26 | 32 | 121 |
Period scoring
DET won 3 · IND won 1
Q1
Reed 14
Toppin 9
Q2
Harris 9
Potter 13
Q3
Reed 8
Jackson 7
Q4
Green 6
Huff 8
Shooting comparison
56%
50-89
FG
46%
41-90
45%
15-33
3PT
43%
23-54
82%
18-22
FT
80%
16-20
Play-by-play · 462 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 133·IND 121
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 133·IND 121
- Q4·2.6
shot clock turnover
DET 133·IND 121
- Q4·26.0
Tolu Smith defensive rebound
DET 133·IND 121
- Q4·28.4
Kobe Brown misses two point shot
DET 133·IND 121
- Q4·43.6
Ronald Holland II makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshot
DET 133·IND 121
- Q4·1:06
Ronald Holland II defensive rebound
DET 130·IND 121
- Q4·1:08
Ethan Thompson misses free throw 2 of 2
·
DET 130·IND 121
−1pp
- Q4·1:08
Ethan Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2
·
DET 130·IND 121
- Q4·1:08
Ronald Holland II shooting foul
DET 130·IND 120
+1pp
- Q4·1:23
Tolu Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 130·IND 120
- Q4·1:23
Pistons offensive team rebound
DET 129·IND 120
- Q4·1:23
Tolu Smith misses free throw 1 of 2
DET 129·IND 120
- Q4·1:23
Taelon Peter enters the game for Jay Huff
·
DET 129·IND 120
- Q4·1:23
Pistons Full timeout
DET 129·IND 120
- Q4·1:23
Jay Huff loose ball foul
DET 129·IND 120
- Q4·1:23
Pistons offensive team rebound
DET 129·IND 120
- Q4·1:25
Marcus Sasser misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
DET 129·IND 120
- Q4·1:45
Ronald Holland II defensive rebound
DET 129·IND 120
- Q4·1:48
Kam Jones misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
DET 129·IND 120
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:57
Marcus Sasser makes 26-foot three pointer
DET 129·IND 120
−2pp
- Q4·2:21
Kam Jones makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)
· ·
DET 126·IND 120
+2pp
- Q4·2:31
Isaac Jones bad pass turnover (Kobe Brown steals)
· ·
DET 126·IND 117
+0.5pp
- Q4·2:45
Ethan Thompson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jay Huff assists)
· ·
DET 126·IND 117
+0.6pp
- Q4·3:01
Chaz Lanier makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot (Tolu Smith assists)
·
DET 126·IND 114
- Q4·3:19
Micah Potter makes driving dunk (Kam Jones assists)
· ·
DET 124·IND 114
- Q4·3:26
Tolu Smith makes two point shot
DET 124·IND 112
- Q4·3:29
Tolu Smith offensive rebound
DET 122·IND 112
- Q4·3:29
Tolu Smith misses tip shot
DET 122·IND 112
- Q4·3:29
Tolu Smith offensive rebound
DET 122·IND 112
−0.5pp
Team stats
DET
Away
Stat
IND
Home
50-89
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-90
56
FG %
46
15-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
23-54
18-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-20
35
Assists
31
17
Turnovers
16
Betting line
DET -16.5·O/U 232.5·DET -1200/IND +750
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort
Cade CunninghamDET · GDRIVES1999+
Ausar ThompsonDET · GDEFL3.595- Paul ReedDET · FTS%65.091
Isaiah StewartDET · FTS%63.288
Duncan RobinsonDET · FTS%62.985
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 160 high confidence
Points
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- Pascal SiakamIND23.8± 7.9high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND16.8± 8.1high
Rebounds
- Ivica ZubacIND9.5± 4.1high
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
- Ausar ThompsonDET7.1± 3.2high
Assists
- Andrew NembhardIND8.5± 4.7high
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND8.1± 4.3high
Blocks
- Jay HuffIND1.9± 1.9high
- Ausar ThompsonDET1.5± 1.3high
- Jalen DurenDET1.0± 1.1high
Steals
- Ausar ThompsonDET2.0± 1.8high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND1.6± 1.3high
- Jalen SlawsonIND1.5± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DET
league avg
IND
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.3%
48.0%
FG%
47.0
45.8%
115.9
PPG
114.9
112.4
27.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶27.7
14.3
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.8