SAC
22-60
POR
42-40
Recap · NBA
ortland Trail Blazers held off Sacramento Kings, 122–110.
SAC +18.5 cashed (POR won by 12). Total cleared the 226.5 OVER by 5.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SAC · top performer
Nique Clifford
G · #5
24
Pts
7
Reb
5
Ast
POR · top performer
Deni Avdija
F · #8
25
Pts
6
Reb
10
Ast
NBA · Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 27 | 10-21 | 0-3 | 7-11 | -1 | 11 | 4 | |
| 37 | 21 | 7-10 | 3-4 | 4-4 | -9 | 9 | 2 | |
| 22 | 8 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 3-3 | -8 | 1 | 2 | |
| 34 | 8 | 3-14 | 0-3 | 2-5 | -10 | 6 | 8 | |
| 39 | 24 | 10-13 | 0-1 | 4-4 | -12 | 7 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 26 | 7 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 21 | 6 | 3-7 | 0-1 | — | -12 | 8 | 0 | |
| 26 | 9 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 2-2 | -8 | 2 | 3 | |
| Team | 110 | 40-83 | 7-21 | 23-31 | 47 | 24 | ||
| DNP: D. Eubanks, D. Hunter, K. Murray, P. Baldwin Jr. | ||||||||
DNP: D. Eubanks, D. Hunter, K. Murray, P. Baldwin Jr.
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 34 | 15 | 6-14 | 3-8 | — | +1 | 4 | 2 | |
| 33 | 25 | 9-19 | 5-9 | 2-3 | +12 | 6 | 10 | |
| 24 | 13 | 6-10 | 1-2 | — | +9 | 10 | 1 | |
| 33 | 23 | 8-18 | 2-8 | 5-6 | +10 | 7 | 3 | |
| 27 | 15 | 6-12 | 2-7 | 1-1 | +6 | 2 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 30 | 9 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 1-2 | +27 | 4 | 3 | |
| 23 | 6 | 3-4 | — | — | +7 | 10 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 7 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | — | +1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | — | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 | 9 | 3-11 | 0-4 | 3-3 | +5 | 1 | 4 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 122 | 47-101 | 16-46 | 12-15 | 46 | 28 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
47
24
Ast
28
Season series
POR wins series 4-0
SAC133@POR134POR98@SAC93POR117@SAC110SAC110@POR122todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
POR -18.5
Between 10 and —
Total
226.5
Standard · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
SAC+12008%POR-240096%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
18.5
0.0 since open
Total
226.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
SACN. Clifford
GGame leader · 39 min
24 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
PORD. Avdija
FGame leader · 33 minDouble-double
25 PTS · 6 REB · 10 AST
How it ended
POR beat SAC 122-110. D. Avdija paced them with 25 PTS, 6 REB, 10 AST. POR outscored the other side 44-24 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
POR vs SAC
Starters vs bench
production by unitSACstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
88 PTS · 34 REB · 21 AST
GS 74
Bench(3)
22 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST
GS 17
PORstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
91 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST
GS 68
Bench(10)
31 PTS · 17 REB · 8 AST
GS 33
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 33 | 24 | 27 | 26 | 110 |
| POR | 33 | 44 | 19 | 26 | 122 |
Period scoring
SAC won 1 · POR won 1
Q1
Achiuwa 10
Avdija 13
Q2
Clifford 10
Henderson 9
Q3
Achiuwa 8
Clingan 13
Q4
Raynaud 6
Holiday 8
Shooting comparison
48%
40-83
FG
47%
47-101
33%
7-21
3PT
35%
16-46
74%
23-31
FT
80%
12-15
Play-by-play · 484 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 110·POR 122
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 110·POR 122
+3pp
- Q4·9.7
Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 110·POR 122
- Q4·9.7
Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 109·POR 122
- Q4·9.7
Sidy Cissoko loose ball foul
SAC 108·POR 122
- Q4·9.7
Kings offensive team rebound
SAC 108·POR 122
- Q4·10.9
Precious Achiuwa misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
SAC 108·POR 122
- Q4·24.3
Kings defensive team rebound
SAC 108·POR 122
- Q4·26.2
Caleb Love misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
SAC 108·POR 122
- Q4·44.0
Maxime Raynaud makes driving layup (Nique Clifford assists)
·
SAC 108·POR 122
- Q4·56.0
Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
SAC 106·POR 122
- Q4·59.0
Jayson Kent misses 23-foot three point jumper
SAC 106·POR 122
- Q4·1:14
Yang Hansen defensive rebound
SAC 106·POR 122
- Q4·1:17
Devin Carter misses driving layup
SAC 106·POR 122
- Q4·1:39
Jayson Kent enters the game for Jrue Holiday
·
SAC 106·POR 122
- Q4·1:39
Blake Wesley personal take foul
SAC 106·POR 122
- Q4·1:39
Jrue Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 106·POR 122
- Q4·1:39
Caleb Love enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
SAC 106·POR 121
- Q4·1:39
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Toumani Camara
·
SAC 106·POR 121
- Q4·1:39
Blake Wesley enters the game for Kris Murray
· ·
SAC 106·POR 121
- Q4·1:39
Yang Hansen enters the game for Deni Avdija
·
SAC 106·POR 121
- Q4·1:39
Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 106·POR 121
- Q4·1:39
Devin Carter personal foul
SAC 106·POR 120
- Q4·1:48
Precious Achiuwa makes 1-foot dunk (Devin Carter assists)
·
SAC 106·POR 120
- Q4·2:09
Jrue Holiday makes 8-foot two point shot
SAC 104·POR 120
- Q4·2:28
Deni Avdija defensive rebound
SAC 104·POR 118
- Q4·2:29
Precious Achiuwa misses driving floating jump shot
SAC 104·POR 118
- Q4·2:51
Jrue Holiday makes 20-foot step back jumpshot
SAC 104·POR 118
- Q4·3:04
Nique Clifford traveling turnover
SAC 104·POR 116
- Q4·3:13
Donovan Clingan enters the game for Robert Williams III
·
SAC 104·POR 116
Team stats
SAC
Away
Stat
POR
Home
40-83
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
47-101
48
FG %
47
7-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
16-46
23-31
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-15
24
Assists
28
16
Turnovers
12
Betting line
POR -18.5·O/U 226.5·SAC +1200/POR -2400
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort- Deni AvdijaPOR · FDRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · CTS%72.299+
Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.697
Donovan ClinganPOR · CCONT7.694
Toumani CamaraPOR · FCONT6.489
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · SAC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
POR vs SAC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 165 high confidence
Points
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Damian LillardPOR19.2± 8.2high
- DeMar DeRozanSAC18.0± 12.6high
Rebounds
- Domantas SabonisSAC10.6± 3.5high
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Maxime RaynaudSAC8.3± 2.4high
Assists
- Russell WestbrookSAC7.5± 2.7high
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
- Jrue HolidayPOR6.3± 3.0high
Blocks
- Dylan CardwellSAC1.7± 1.7high
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Keegan MurraySAC1.4± 0.8high
Steals
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- Toumani CamaraPOR1.4± 1.4high
- Russell WestbrookSAC1.3± 1.6high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
SAC
league avg
POR
52.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶53.0%
46.7%
FG%
47.0
45.1%
111.0
PPG
114.9
▶114.6
25.5
Assists / G
25.0
25.0
13.7
Turnovers / G
14.0
16.2