NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+24LAL

UTAH

22-60

107131

LAL

53-29

NBASun, Apr 12FinalSeriesLAL win series 4-0VegasLAL -14.5

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Utah Jazz, 131–107. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAL -14.5 cashed (won by 24). Total stayed UNDER 239.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

UTAH · top performer

Oscar Tshiebwe

C · #34

28.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Deandre Ayton

C · #5

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. HinsonF · #2	26	10	4-12	2-8	—	-8	6	2
C. WilliamsF · #5	39	14	5-15	0-2	4-4	-10	3	6
O. TshiebweC · #34	32	29	12-17	—	5-8	-15	17	3
A. BaileyG · #19	29	15	7-21	1-9	0-2	-19	3	1
B. MbengG · #21	48	14	5-10	1-4	3-5	-24	4	9
Bench
B. SensabaughF · #28	13	15	4-10	3-8	4-6	-9	2	1
J. KoncharG · #55	28	4	2-6	0-2	—	-17	7	2
H. GrayG · #33	25	6	2-3	0-1	2-2	-18	0	1
Team		107	41-94	7-34	18-27		42	25
DNP: K. Love, S. Mykhailiuk, E. Harkless, I. Collier

DNP: K. Love, S. Mykhailiuk, E. Harkless, I. Collier

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	17	18	6-15	0-3	6-7	+14	4	6
R. HachimuraF · #28	29	22	8-12	3-5	3-4	+19	10	0
D. AytonC · #5	26	22	10-14	—	2-2	+13	10	1
M. SmartG · #36	26	5	1-7	1-5	2-2	+13	2	10
L. KennardG · #10	11	3	1-1	—	1-2	+8	0	1
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	15	2	1-2	—	—	+10	6	0
J. VanderbiltF · #2	16	4	2-5	0-2	—	+5	4	2
D. TimmeF · #17	7	3	1-1	1-1	—	+1	0	2
J. LaRaviaF · #12	25	2	1-3	0-1	—	+11	4	3
D. KnechtF · #4	12	17	6-9	5-6	—	+3	2	4
A. ThieroF · #1	12	8	4-4	—	—	+3	4	2
N. Smith Jr.G · #20	18	12	5-11	2-6	—	+6	0	1
B. JamesG · #9	19	11	4-7	3-4	—	+13	1	4
C. ManonG · #30	7	2	1-2	0-1	—	+1	2	1
Team		131	51-93	15-34	14-17		49	37

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

LAL win series 4-0

Nov 19

UTAH126@

LAL140

Nov 24

LAL108@

UTAH106

Dec 19

LAL143@

UTAH135

Apr 13

UTAH107@

LAL131today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+70013%

LAL-110092%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -14.5↗SpreadBet LAL -14.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowUTAH ↔ LAL

UTAH

O. Tshiebwe

Game leader · 32 minDouble-double

29 PTS · 17 REB · 3 AST

LAL

D. Ayton

Game leader · 26 minDouble-double

22 PTS · 10 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

LAL beat UTAH 131-107. D. Ayton led with 22 PTS, 10 REB, 1 AST. LAL outscored the other side 32-22 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 33 REB · 21 AST

GS 63

Bench(3)

25 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST

GS 22

LALstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 26 REB · 18 AST

GS 63

Bench(9)

61 PTS · 23 REB · 19 AST

GS 60

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	22	23	29	33	107
LAL	32	30	33	36	131

Period scoring

UTAH won 0 · LAL won 4

Tshiebwe 8

James 10

Sensabaugh 7

Hachimura 11

Bailey 6

Ayton 12

Tshiebwe 14

Knecht 17

UTAH

LAL

Shooting comparison

UTAH

LAL

44%

41-94

55%

51-93

21%

7-34

3PT

44%

15-34

67%

18-27

82%

14-17

Play-by-play · 469 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 107·LAL 131
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 107·LAL 131
Q4·0.8
shot clock turnover
UTAH 107·LAL 131
Q4·25.0
Oscar Tshiebwe makes two point shot
UTAH 107·LAL 131
Q4·25.0
Oscar Tshiebwe offensive rebound
UTAH 105·LAL 131
Q4·29.2
Cody Williams misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
UTAH 105·LAL 131
Q4·40.4
Adou Thiero makes dunk (Dalton Knecht assists)
·
UTAH 105·LAL 131
Q4·57.0
Oscar Tshiebwe makes driving dunk
UTAH 105·LAL 129
Q4·57.4
Oscar Tshiebwe offensive rebound
UTAH 103·LAL 129
Q4·1:00
Oscar Tshiebwe misses free throw 1 of 1
UTAH 103·LAL 129
Q4·1:00
Drew Timme shooting foul
UTAH 103·LAL 129
Q4·1:00
Oscar Tshiebwe makes two point shot
UTAH 103·LAL 129
Q4·1:02
Oscar Tshiebwe offensive rebound
UTAH 101·LAL 129
Q4·1:03
Cody Williams misses 12-foot pullup jump shot
UTAH 101·LAL 129
Q4·1:14
shot clock turnover
UTAH 101·LAL 129
Q4·1:14
Lakers offensive team rebound
UTAH 101·LAL 129
Q4·1:16
Nick Smith Jr. misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
UTAH 101·LAL 129
Q4·1:36
Bez Mbeng makes running layup
UTAH 101·LAL 129
Q4·1:39
Drew Timme lost ball turnover (Bez Mbeng steals)
·
UTAH 99·LAL 129
Q4·1:39
Hayden Gray bad pass turnover (Drew Timme steals)
·
UTAH 99·LAL 129
Q4·2:01
Dalton Knecht makes 1-foot dunk (Chris Manon assists)
·
UTAH 99·LAL 129
Q4·2:02
Chris Manon offensive rebound
UTAH 99·LAL 127
Q4·2:06
Dalton Knecht misses 23-foot three point jumper
UTAH 99·LAL 127
Q4·2:22
Hayden Gray makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 99·LAL 127
Q4·2:22
Hayden Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 98·LAL 127
Q4·2:22
Chris Manon shooting foul
UTAH 97·LAL 127
Q4·2:37
Dalton Knecht makes 23-foot three point jumper (Drew Timme assists)
·
UTAH 97·LAL 127
Q4·2:51
Adou Thiero defensive rebound
UTAH 97·LAL 124
Q4·2:53
Bez Mbeng misses free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 97·LAL 124
Q4·2:53
Bez Mbeng makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 97·LAL 124

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

41-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

51-93

FG %

7-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-34

18-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-17

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

LAL -14.5·O/U 239.5·UTAH +700/LAL -1100

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 7 players in cohort

Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.398
Luke KennardLAL · G
TS%68.998
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.994
Rui HachimuraLAL · F
CONT6.590

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · UTAH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAL vs UTAH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
LeBron JamesLAL
22.2± 5.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Walker KesslerUTAH
10.7± 2.2low
Deandre AytonLAL
9.1± 4.7high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
LeBron JamesLAL
7.2± 2.6high
Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high

Blocks

Walker KesslerUTAH
1.8± 2.5low
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high
Ace BaileyUTAH
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
Marcus SmartLAL
2.1± 1.8high
Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

LAL

53.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

117.6

PPG

◀

114.9

114.8

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR