GS
37-45
LAC
42-40
Recap · NBA
A Clippers held off Golden State Warriors, 115–110. Decided by 5.
LAC -3.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Stephen Curry
G · #30
24
Pts
6
Reb
3
Ast
LAC · top performer
Bennedict Mathurin
G · #9
20
Pts
9
Reb
8
Ast
NBA · Golden State Warriors at LA Clippers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 19 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-4 | — | +10 | 4 | 2 | |
| 24 | 12 | 3-8 | 0-4 | 6-6 | +5 | 8 | 1 | |
| 29 | 24 | 7-14 | 4-9 | 6-8 | +13 | 6 | 3 | |
| 19 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 2-2 | +4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 21 | 10 | 3-10 | 2-5 | 2-2 | +16 | 4 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 17 | 8 | 3-4 | — | 2-2 | -13 | 2 | 2 | |
| 17 | 7 | 3-6 | — | 1-2 | +8 | 7 | 2 | |
| 19 | 16 | 5-6 | — | 6-8 | -17 | 3 | 2 | |
| 12 | 6 | 2-7 | 2-4 | — | -12 | 1 | 2 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | +2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 13 | 9 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | -11 | 2 | 1 | |
| 19 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-3 | — | -18 | 3 | 3 | |
| 20 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | — | -12 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 110 | 36-86 | 11-39 | 27-32 | 47 | 24 | ||
| DNP: D. Green | ||||||||
DNP: D. Green
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 21 | 18 | 8-12 | 0-2 | 2-2 | -1 | 9 | 0 | |
| 21 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 | — | -6 | 4 | 0 | |
| 23 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-4 | — | -6 | 8 | 0 | |
| 22 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-3 | — | -12 | 1 | 3 | |
| 27 | 15 | 6-17 | 1-5 | 2-2 | -9 | 1 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 22 | 9 | 3-5 | 3-5 | — | +10 | 2 | 2 | |
| 21 | 17 | 6-9 | 5-8 | — | +13 | 3 | 0 | |
| 29 | 14 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 5-5 | +12 | 4 | 6 | |
| 32 | 20 | 7-17 | 2-7 | 4-6 | +8 | 9 | 8 | |
| 23 | 11 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 4-4 | +16 | 3 | 2 | |
| Team | 115 | 42-89 | 14-39 | 17-19 | 44 | 27 | ||
| DNP: N. Omier, T. Washington Jr., S. Pedulla, C. Christie | ||||||||
DNP: N. Omier, T. Washington Jr., S. Pedulla, C. Christie
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
47
24
Ast
27
Season series
LAC win series 3-1
LAC79@GS98GS102@LAC103LAC114@GS101GS110@LAC115todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LAC -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
229.5
Standard · +3.5 vs avg
Moneyline
GS+13642%LAC-16262%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
229.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 10pp · 4th Quarter · 10:51
GSS. Curry
GGame leader · 29 min
24 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
LACB. Mathurin
GGame leader · 32 min
20 PTS · 9 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
LAC beat GS 115-110. B. Mathurin led with 20 PTS, 9 REB, 8 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LAC vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 50% of ptsStarters(5)
55 PTS · 25 REB · 10 AST
GS 42
Bench(8)
55 PTS · 22 REB · 14 AST
GS 45
LACstarters 38% of ptsStarters(5)
44 PTS · 23 REB · 9 AST
GS 28
Bench(5)
71 PTS · 21 REB · 18 AST
GS 63
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSeth Curry · misses 27-foot three point jumper
Darius Garland · misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
Bogdan Bogdanovic · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 26 | 22 | 33 | 29 | 110 |
| LAC | 25 | 27 | 31 | 32 | 115 |
Period scoring
GS won 2 · LAC won 2
Q1
Curry 8
Collins 10
Q2
Curry 4
Mathurin 8
Q3
Curry 10
Garland 10
Q4
Williams 7
Miller 10
Shooting comparison
42%
36-86
FG
47%
42-89
28%
11-39
3PT
36%
14-39
84%
27-32
FT
89%
17-19
Play-by-play · 476 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 110·LAC 115
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 110·LAC 115
+2pp
- Q4·11.7
Nate Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Charles Bassey assists)
·
GS 110·LAC 115
−0.8pp
- Q4·22.6
Will Richard defensive rebound
GS 107·LAC 115
- Q4·24.7
Bennedict Mathurin misses 9-foot pullup jump shot
GS 107·LAC 115
- Q4·43.1
Malevy Leons makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Nate Williams assists)
·
GS 107·LAC 115
- Q4·1:03
Jordan Miller makes 29-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)
·
GS 105·LAC 115
+2pp
- Q4·1:25
Charles Bassey makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 105·LAC 112
+2pp
- Q4·1:25
Charles Bassey makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 104·LAC 112
- Q4·1:25
Jordan Miller loose ball foul
GS 103·LAC 112
−2pp
- Q4·1:25
Warriors offensive team rebound
GS 103·LAC 112
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:26
Will Richard misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS 103·LAC 112
+1pp
- Q4·1:45
Jordan Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 103·LAC 112
−0.8pp
- Q4·1:45
Jordan Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 103·LAC 111
- Q4·1:45
Charles Bassey personal foul
GS 103·LAC 110
+2pp
- Q4·2:02
Nate Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 103·LAC 110
+2pp
- Q4·2:02
Nate Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 102·LAC 110
−0.5pp
- Q4·2:02
Kobe Sanders shooting foul
GS 101·LAC 110
−2pp
- Q4·2:18
Jordan Miller makes free throw 1 of 1
GS 101·LAC 110
−0.8pp
- Q4·2:18
Charles Bassey shooting foul
GS 101·LAC 109
+3pp
- Q4·2:18
Jordan Miller makes 1-foot two point shot
GS 101·LAC 109
+3pp
- Q4·2:30
Pat Spencer makes two point shot
GS 101·LAC 107
−2pp
- Q4·2:31
Pat Spencer offensive rebound
GS 99·LAC 107
−1pp
- Q4·2:33
Nate Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper
GS 99·LAC 107
+2pp
- Q4·2:41
Malevy Leons defensive rebound
GS 99·LAC 107
- Q4·2:44
Nicolas Batum misses 25-foot three point jumper
GS 99·LAC 107
−0.9pp
- Q4·3:11
Pat Spencer makes 13-foot two point shot
GS 99·LAC 107
−0.9pp
- Q4·3:36
Jordan Miller makes driving layup (Kobe Sanders assists)
·
GS 97·LAC 107
+2pp
- Q4·3:50
Nate Williams makes driving layup (Pat Spencer assists)
·
GS 97·LAC 105
−1pp
- Q4·4:11
Kobe Sanders makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 95·LAC 105
−0.9pp
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
LAC
Home
36-86
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
42-89
42
FG %
47
11-39
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-39
27-32
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-19
24
Assists
27
9
Turnovers
10
Betting line
LAC -3.5·O/U 229.5·GS +136/LAC -162
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAC vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Kawhi LeonardLAC25.5± 4.3high
- Stephen CurryGS25.2± 8.3high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS20.4± 6.0high
Rebounds
- Kawhi LeonardLAC6.5± 1.4high
- John CollinsLAC5.8± 2.5high
- Kristaps PorzingisGS5.6± 2.4high
Assists
- Draymond GreenGS6.6± 3.0high
- Darius GarlandLAC6.3± 2.3high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS4.8± 1.7high
Blocks
- Brook LopezLAC1.3± 1.4high
- Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC1.3± 1.5high
- Isaiah JacksonLAC1.2± 0.8high
Steals
- Kris DunnLAC1.6± 1.1high
- De'Anthony MeltonGS1.5± 1.4high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS1.5± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
GS
league avg
LAC
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.9%
46.2%
FG%
47.0
▶48.5%
114.5
PPG
114.9
113.9
28.8
Assists / G
25.0
23.8
15.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.6