NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21DAL

CHI

31-51

128149

DAL

26-56

NBASun, Apr 12FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDAL -5.5

Recap · NBA

allas Mavericks held off Chicago Bulls, 149–128. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DAL -5.5 cashed (won by 21). Total cleared the 249.5 OVER by 27.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHI · top performer

Lachlan Olbrich

C · #47

21.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Ryan Nembhard

G · #9

26.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. WilliamsF · #44	36	13	5-15	2-9	1-1	-9	4	5
L. MillerF · #11	35	17	8-12	1-4	0-1	-28	7	2
L. OlbrichC · #47	31	10	4-7	—	2-2	-11	15	10
C. SextonG · #2	28	19	8-16	1-1	2-2	-9	3	1
T. JonesG · #30	19	6	3-11	0-3	—	-12	3	2
Bench
M. GueyeF · #16	29	11	4-8	0-3	3-4	-14	3	4
M. McClungG · #5	18	13	4-7	2-4	3-4	-1	0	0
R. DillinghamG · #7	30	25	11-18	1-5	2-4	-19	5	5
Y. KawamuraG · #8	15	14	5-12	3-9	1-1	-2	2	1
Team		128	52-106	10-38	14-19		42	30
DNP: Z. Collins, N. Richards, A. Simons

DNP: Z. Collins, N. Richards, A. Simons

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #20	6	8	2-3	2-3	2-2	+15	1	1
D. PowellF · #7	24	7	3-4	1-2	—	+15	12	2
C. FlaggF · #32	10	10	4-8	0-1	2-2	+21	4	1
M. ChristieG · #00	13	12	5-7	2-4	0-1	+24	1	1
R. NembhardG · #9	38	15	6-11	1-2	2-2	+23	9	23
Bench
T. SmithF · #23	37	20	7-12	4-9	2-2	+9	7	0
M. CisseC · #30	41	17	6-15	—	5-6	+4	20	1
K. ThompsonG · #31	10	12	4-10	4-9	—	-4	0	1
J. PoulakidasG · #1	36	28	9-18	8-16	2-3	+5	2	4
A. JohnsonG · #8	25	20	6-12	0-3	8-9	-7	1	1
Team		149	52-100	22-49	23-27		57	35
DNP: M. Bagley III, N. Marshall

DNP: M. Bagley III, N. Marshall

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 11

DAL107@

CHI125

Apr 13

CHI128@

DAL149today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

249.5

High-scoring · +23.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+17037%

DAL-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -5.5↗SpreadBet DAL -5.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

249.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHI ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 10:41

CHI

L. Olbrich

Game leader · 31 minTriple-double

10 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST

DAL

R. Nembhard

Game leader · 38 minDouble-double

15 PTS · 9 REB · 23 AST

How it ended

DAL beat CHI 149-128. R. Nembhard led with 15 PTS, 9 REB, 23 AST. DAL outscored the other side 35-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 32 REB · 20 AST

GS 59

Bench(4)

63 PTS · 10 REB · 10 AST

GS 45

DALstarters 35% of pts

Starters(5)

52 PTS · 27 REB · 28 AST

GS 63

Bench(5)

97 PTS · 30 REB · 7 AST

GS 69

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	34	22	32	40	128
DAL	45	35	39	30	149

Period scoring

CHI won 1 · DAL won 3

Dillingham 7

Christie 8

Dillingham 10

Smith 12

Sexton 10

Poulakidas 22

Kawamura 14

Johnson 7

CHI

DAL

Shooting comparison

CHI

DAL

49%

52-106

52%

52-100

26%

10-38

3PT

45%

22-49

74%

14-19

85%

23-27

Play-by-play · 521 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 128·DAL 149
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 128·DAL 149
Q4·17.9
Mac McClung makes driving layup (Lachlan Olbrich assists)
·
CHI 128·DAL 149
Q4·20.7
AJ Johnson makes driving layup
CHI 126·DAL 149
Q4·34.4
Mac McClung makes free throw 1 of 1
CHI 126·DAL 147
Q4·34.4
Ryan Nembhard shooting foul
CHI 125·DAL 147
Q4·34.4
Mac McClung makes 1-foot layup (Yuki Kawamura assists)
·
CHI 125·DAL 147
Q4·39.7
John Poulakidas makes 25-foot three pointer (Ryan Nembhard assists)
·
CHI 123·DAL 147
Q4·46.2
Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
CHI 123·DAL 144
Q4·52.4
Rob Dillingham misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHI 123·DAL 144
Q4·58.1
Lachlan Olbrich offensive rebound
CHI 123·DAL 144
Q4·1:01
Yuki Kawamura misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHI 123·DAL 144
Q4·1:10
AJ Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 123·DAL 144
Q4·1:10
AJ Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 123·DAL 143
Q4·1:10
Mac McClung personal foul
CHI 123·DAL 142
Q4·1:29
Mouhamadou Gueye makes running dunk (Lachlan Olbrich assists)
·
CHI 123·DAL 142
Q4·1:33
Lachlan Olbrich defensive rebound
CHI 121·DAL 142
Q4·1:35
Moussa Cisse misses layup
CHI 121·DAL 142
Q4·1:44
Lachlan Olbrich makes two point shot
CHI 121·DAL 142
Q4·1:44
Lachlan Olbrich offensive rebound
CHI 119·DAL 142
Q4·1:46
Yuki Kawamura misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHI 119·DAL 142
Q4·1:57
Tyler Smith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)
·
CHI 119·DAL 142
Q4·2:13
Yuki Kawamura makes driving layup
CHI 119·DAL 139
Q4·2:24
Ryan Nembhard makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHI 117·DAL 139
Q4·2:31
Tyler Smith defensive rebound
CHI 117·DAL 136
Q4·2:34
Mac McClung misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHI 117·DAL 136
Q4·2:50
Lachlan Olbrich defensive rebound
CHI 117·DAL 136
Q4·2:52
AJ Johnson misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 117·DAL 136
Q4·2:52
AJ Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 117·DAL 136
Q4·2:52
Mouhamadou Gueye enters the game for Leonard Miller
·
CHI 117·DAL 135

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

52-106

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

52-100

FG %

10-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

22-49

14-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-27

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

DAL -5.5·O/U 249.5·CHI +170/DAL -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DAL vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Cooper FlaggDAL
23.6± 14.0high
Kyrie IrvingDAL
23.4± 13.6high
Collin SextonCHI
17.9± 4.5high

Rebounds

Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Daniel GaffordDAL
7.8± 3.6high
Moussa CisseDAL
7.8± 4.7high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Ryan NembhardDAL
6.2± 5.9high
Tre JonesCHI
5.2± 2.9high

Blocks

Dereck Lively IIDAL
1.6± 1.3low
Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Moussa CisseDAL
1.2± 1.2high

Steals

Collin SextonCHI
1.6± 1.3high
Cooper FlaggDAL
1.4± 1.4high
Kyrie IrvingDAL
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHI

league avg

DAL

54.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

46.9%

FG%

47.0

46.6%

116.3

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

28.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.3

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR