NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6MIN

26-56

126132

MIN

49-33

NBASun, Apr 12FinalSeriesMIN wins series 3-1VegasMIN -3.5

NO · top performer

Jeremiah Fears

G · #0

27.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Joan Beringer

F · #19

29.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 7pp · 4th Quarter · 3:21

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. OduroC · #13	31	4	2-2	—	0-1	-4	6	2
D. QueenC · #22	41	30	11-28	1-2	7-8	-5	22	4
M. PeavyG · #14	41	21	6-12	2-4	7-8	-4	4	3
J. HawkinsG · #24	33	13	4-18	1-4	4-4	-15	5	3
J. FearsG · #0	41	36	12-28	0-5	12-14	0	10	5
Bench
H. DickinsonC · #4	21	6	3-8	0-2	—	+2	4	2
T. AlexanderG · #23	32	16	7-11	1-4	1-3	-4	1	1
Team		126	45-107	5-21	31-38		52	20
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Poole, B. McGowens

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. InglesF · #7	32	15	6-10	3-6	—	-8	6	10
J. BeringerF · #19	31	24	9-12	—	6-9	-1	13	2
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	8	3	1-5	1-5	—	+1	1	3
J. ClarkG · #22	30	8	3-9	2-7	—	-15	3	2
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	35	26	6-18	0-7	14-18	+9	4	5
Bench
E. FreemanF · #25	26	13	4-8	2-4	3-4	+25	7	2
J. PhillipsF · #4	26	16	6-12	1-5	3-6	-1	1	1
R. ZikarskyC · #44	20	8	2-3	—	4-4	+7	9	2
Z. PullinG · #15	31	19	8-12	1-3	2-2	+13	3	5
Team		132	45-89	10-37	32-43		47	32
DNP: M. Conley, A. Dosunmu, B. Hyland

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

45-107

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-89

FG %

5-21

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-37

31-38

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

32-43

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN wins series 3-1

Dec 3

MIN149@

NO142

Dec 5

MIN125@

NO116

Feb 7

NO119@

MIN115

Apr 13

NO126@

MIN132today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+15040%

MIN-18064%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -3.5↗SpreadBet MIN -3.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat NO 132-126. J. Beringer led with 24 PTS, 13 REB, 2 AST. MIN outscored the other side 34-24 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

104 PTS · 47 REB · 17 AST

GS 79

Bench(2)

22 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST

GS 18

MINstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 27 REB · 22 AST

GS 69

Bench(4)

56 PTS · 20 REB · 10 AST

GS 48

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN4th Quarter · 11:44 · 90-97

+7pp→ 92% WP

Josh Oduro · shooting foul

NO4th Quarter · 3:21 · 110-116

+7pp→ 19% WP

Terrence Shannon Jr. · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	24	35	31	36	126
MIN	34	39	24	35	132

Period scoring

NO won 2 · MIN won 2

Hawkins 8

Jr. 6

Queen 12

Pullin 8

Fears 13

Ingles 10

Peavy 11

Beringer 12

MIN

Shooting comparison

MIN

42%

45-107

51%

45-89

24%

5-21

3PT

27%

10-37

82%

31-38

74%

32-43

Play-by-play · 550 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 126·MIN 132
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 126·MIN 132
Q4·7.1
Jeremiah Fears makes 1-foot reverse layup
NO 126·MIN 132
Q4·16.5
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 124·MIN 132
Q4·16.5
Julian Phillips enters the game for Joe Ingles
·
NO 124·MIN 131
Q4·16.5
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 124·MIN 131
Q4·16.5
Trey Alexander personal take foul
NO 124·MIN 130
+1pp
Q4·19.1
Derik Queen makes 26-foot three point shot (Jeremiah Fears assists)
·
NO 124·MIN 130
−0.9pp
Q4·25.4
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 121·MIN 130
Q4·25.4
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 121·MIN 129
Q4·25.4
Hunter Dickinson enters the game for Micah Peavy
·
NO 121·MIN 128
Q4·25.4
Micah Peavy personal take foul
NO 121·MIN 128
+0.6pp
Q4·28.1
Timberwolves Full timeout
NO 121·MIN 128
Q4·28.1
Timberwolves Full timeout
NO 121·MIN 128
Q4·31.2
Enrique Freeman defensive rebound
NO 121·MIN 128
Q4·33.1
Jeremiah Fears misses driving layup
NO 121·MIN 128
+2pp
Q4·40.2
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 121·MIN 128
−1pp
Q4·40.2
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 121·MIN 127
+0.5pp
Q4·40.2
Micah Peavy personal take foul
NO 121·MIN 126
+3pp
Q4·41.4
Trey Alexander makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Micah Peavy assists)
·
NO 121·MIN 126
−2pp
Q4·52.5
Micah Peavy defensive rebound
NO 119·MIN 126
Q4·53.8
Terrence Shannon Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2
NO 119·MIN 126
−3pp
Q4·53.8
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 119·MIN 126
Q4·53.8
Micah Peavy personal take foul
NO 119·MIN 125
+2pp
Q4·55.2
Derik Queen makes tip shot
NO 119·MIN 125
−2pp
Q4·55.2
Derik Queen offensive rebound
NO 117·MIN 125
−0.8pp
Q4·55.2
Derik Queen misses layup
NO 117·MIN 125
+0.9pp
Q4·57.1
Derik Queen offensive rebound
NO 117·MIN 125
−0.9pp
Q4·59.3
Joan Beringer blocks Derik Queen's layup
·
NO 117·MIN 125
+1pp
Q4·1:14
Enrique Freeman makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 117·MIN 125

Betting line

MIN -3.5·O/U 239.5·NO +150/MIN -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves held off New Orleans Pelicans, 132–126.

MIN -3.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 239.5 OVER by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort

Joan BeringerMIN · F
TS%68.397
Derik QueenNO · C
CONT6.891
Jeremiah FearsNO · G
DEFL2.688
Terrence Shannon Jr.MIN · G
DRIVES780

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
DeAndre JordanNO
6.5± 4.6low

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Jeremiah FearsNO
4.2± 1.9high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Trey Murphy IIINO
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

MIN

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.6%

115.5

PPG

114.9

▶

116.8

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.7

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Team pages

New Orleans PelicansMinnesota Timberwolves

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR