NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10DEN

DEN

54-28

128118

62-20

NBASun, Apr 12FinalSeriesDEN wins series 3-1VegasSA -9.5

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets went into San Antonio Spurs and beat them, 128–118.

DEN +9.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total cleared the 235.5 OVER by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

22.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

De'Aaron Fox

G · #4

17.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Z. NnajiF · #22	20	6	3-6	0-2	—	-9	2	2
N. JokicC · #15	18	23	7-12	1-2	8-8	+6	8	1
T. JonesG · #5	21	5	2-7	1-4	—	+6	5	4
B. BrownG · #11	28	14	7-8	0-1	—	+12	4	5
J. StrawtherG · #3	34	25	9-19	4-8	3-4	+2	6	3
Bench
D. Holmes IIF · #14	4	0	0-1	0-1	0-1	-3	1	0
D. RoddyF · #45	33	15	6-13	0-1	3-3	+7	13	2
J. ValanciunasC · #17	19	16	8-16	0-2	—	+12	11	4
J. PickettG · #24	30	11	4-13	1-5	2-4	+11	3	6
C. JonesG · #1	32	13	4-5	4-4	1-2	+6	5	3
Team		128	50-100	11-30	17-22		58	30
DNP: S. Jones, K. Simpson

DNP: S. Jones, K. Simpson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	25	7	3-7	1-4	—	-17	4	1
M. PlumleeC · #45	16	2	1-1	—	—	-6	3	1
D. FoxG · #4	33	24	8-21	4-14	4-4	+2	6	5
D. VassellG · #24	33	19	7-13	3-8	2-2	-2	4	2
S. CastleG · #5	29	10	3-10	2-3	2-4	-11	11	9
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	25	12	5-11	2-5	—	-5	1	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	22	18	6-12	2-5	4-6	+10	6	1
C. BryantF · #11	30	13	6-13	1-7	0-1	+2	5	5
B. BiyomboC · #18	6	2	1-1	—	—	-14	1	0
J. McLaughlinG · #0	2	2	1-1	—	—	+5	1	1
D. HarperG · #2	18	9	4-9	0-1	1-1	-14	3	1
Team		118	45-99	15-47	13-18		45	27
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, H. Ingram

DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, H. Ingram

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

DEN wins series 3-1

Nov 29

SA139@

DEN136

Mar 13

DEN136@

SA131

Apr 4

SA134@

DEN136

Apr 13

DEN128@

SA118today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DEN+34023%

SA-44081%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -9.5↗SpreadBet SA -9.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDEN ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 20pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:04

DEN

N. Jokic

Game leader · 18 min

23 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST

D. Fox

Game leader · 33 min30+ minutes, 0 turnovers

24 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST

How it ended

DEN beat SA 128-118. N. Jokic led with 23 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST. DEN outscored the other side 33-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs DEN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DENstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST

GS 62

Bench(5)

55 PTS · 33 REB · 15 AST

GS 51

SAstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST

GS 53

Bench(6)

56 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST

GS 42

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA1st Quarter · 10:55 · 0-4

+9pp→ 79% WP

Stephon Castle · makes free throw 1 of 2

DEN2nd Quarter · 9:04 · 47-40

+20pp→ 57% WP

Julian Champagnie · out of bounds bad pass turnover

DEN3rd Quarter · 1:10 · 96-85

+7pp→ 85% WP

Carter Bryant de · fensive rebound

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	37	33	31	27	128
SA	34	22	35	27	118

Period scoring

DEN won 2 · SA won 1

Strawther 14

Vassell 7

Jokic 11

Champagnie 13

Pickett 9

Castle 8

Roddy 9

Fox 8

DEN

Shooting comparison

DEN

50%

50-100

45%

45-99

37%

11-30

3PT

32%

15-47

77%

17-22

72%

13-18

Play-by-play · 481 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 128·SA 118
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 128·SA 118
Q4·18.0
shot clock turnover
DEN 128·SA 118
Q4·41.2
Curtis Jones defensive rebound
· ·
DEN 128·SA 118
Q4·44.8
Keldon Johnson misses 28-foot three point jumper
DEN 128·SA 118
Q4·47.3
Julian Strawther makes 1-foot running dunk
DEN 128·SA 118
Q4·49.2
Julian Strawther defensive rebound
DEN 126·SA 118
Q4·49.2
De'Aaron Fox misses 23-foot three point jumper
DEN 126·SA 118
−1pp
Q4·52.2
Devin Vassell offensive rebound
DEN 126·SA 118
+0.9pp
Q4·55.6
De'Aaron Fox misses 23-foot three point jumper
DEN 126·SA 118
−1pp
Q4·57.1
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
DEN 126·SA 118
+1pp
Q4·1:00
De'Aaron Fox misses 23-foot running jump shot
DEN 126·SA 118
−1pp
Q4·1:02
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
DEN 126·SA 118
Q4·1:06
Zeke Nnaji misses driving dunk
DEN 126·SA 118
+1pp
Q4·1:16
Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
DEN 126·SA 118
−0.5pp
Q4·1:19
Devin Vassell misses 26-foot three point jumper
DEN 126·SA 118
−2pp
Q4·1:24
David Roddy makes tip shot
DEN 126·SA 118
−2pp
Q4·1:24
David Roddy offensive rebound
DEN 124·SA 118
−3pp
Q4·1:28
Julian Strawther misses driving floating jump shot
DEN 124·SA 118
+2pp
Q4·1:43
Devin Vassell makes 1-foot driving dunk
DEN 124·SA 118
+2pp
Q4·1:45
Jalen Pickett lost ball turnover (Devin Vassell steals)
·
DEN 124·SA 116
+3pp
Q4·1:55
Carter Bryant loose ball foul
DEN 124·SA 116
−2pp
Q4·1:55
Nuggets defensive team rebound
DEN 124·SA 116
−0.6pp
Q4·1:56
Keldon Johnson misses 25-foot three point jumper
DEN 124·SA 116
−2pp
Q4·1:58
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
DEN 124·SA 116
+2pp
Q4·2:01
Carter Bryant misses 27-foot three point jumper
DEN 124·SA 116
−2pp
Q4·2:02
Devin Vassell offensive rebound
DEN 124·SA 116
+2pp
Q4·2:07
De'Aaron Fox misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
DEN 124·SA 116
−2pp
Q4·2:15
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
DEN 124·SA 116
Q4·2:19
Jalen Pickett misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
DEN 124·SA 116
+1pp

Team stats

DEN

Away

Stat

Home

50-100

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-99

FG %

11-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-47

17-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-18

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

SA -9.5·O/U 235.5·DEN +340/SA -440

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.896
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.591
Jonas ValanciunasDEN · C
USG%26.789
Devin VassellSA · G
DEFL2.583

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs DEN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Victor WembanyamaSA
25.2± 4.8high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Victor WembanyamaSA
9.9± 3.2high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high

Blocks

Victor WembanyamaSA
3.0± 1.1high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high
Peyton WatsonDEN
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.3± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

league avg

57.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.3%

49.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.7%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

118.2

28.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.3

12.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR