NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+26MIA

ATL

46-36

117143

MIA

43-39

NBASun, Apr 12FinalSeriesMIA wins series 3-1VegasMIA -10.5

ATL · top performer

Buddy Hield

G · #8

26.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIA · top performer

Bam Adebayo

C · #13

26.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 3.1

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. KispertF · #24	29	21	7-12	5-9	2-3	-12	3	2
A. NewellF · #14	39	17	7-13	1-3	2-4	-18	11	2
Z. RisacherF · #10	24	11	5-8	1-3	—	-3	9	3
T. BradleyC · #13	22	4	2-6	0-1	—	-18	5	2
K. WallaceG · #2	32	8	2-13	1-8	3-4	-28	4	6
Bench
C. KolokoC · #35	21	4	1-5	0-2	2-4	-17	8	1
B. HieldG · #8	21	31	12-18	7-11	—	+1	3	3
R. DennisG · #00	27	10	4-10	2-6	—	-24	3	3
K. GilbertG · #51	26	11	4-8	0-1	3-3	-11	0	9
Team		117	44-93	17-44	12-18		46	31
DNP: M. Gueye, N. Alexander-Walker, D. Daniels

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	26	4	1-9	0-4	2-2	+8	2	2
B. AdebayoC · #13	29	25	11-18	1-4	2-4	+16	10	3
K. WareC · #7	29	16	6-9	4-5	0-2	+6	7	1
D. MitchellG · #45	26	12	5-6	2-2	—	+12	2	1
T. HerroG · #14	22	5	2-9	1-6	—	+10	10	8
Bench
M. GardnerF · #15	6	2	1-2	—	—	+5	2	3
K. JohnsonF · #16	25	12	6-8	0-2	—	+19	4	3
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	26	26	12-17	1-3	1-2	+16	1	5
V. GoldinC · #50	3	3	1-1	—	1-1	+8	2	0
N. PowellG · #24	23	25	8-17	3-7	6-6	+8	2	2
T. KeelsG · #8	3	2	1-3	0-1	—	+8	0	0
J. YoungG · #17	3	3	1-1	1-1	—	+8	0	1
K. JakucionisG · #25	20	8	3-3	2-2	—	+6	3	5
Team		143	58-103	15-37	12-17		45	34
DNP: P. Larsson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

44-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

58-103

FG %

17-44

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-37

12-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA wins series 3-1

Dec 27

MIA126@

ATL111

Feb 4

ATL127@

MIA115

Feb 21

MIA128@

ATL97

Apr 12

ATL117@

MIA143today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+36022%

MIA-47082%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -10.5↗SpreadBet MIA -10.5↗

Line movement · 31 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat ATL 143-117. B. Adebayo paced them with 25 PTS, 10 REB, 3 AST. MIA outscored the other side 44-33 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIA vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 32 REB · 15 AST

GS 47

Bench(4)

56 PTS · 14 REB · 16 AST

GS 42

MIAstarters 43% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 31 REB · 15 AST

GS 57

Bench(8)

81 PTS · 14 REB · 19 AST

GS 79

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIA1st Quarter · 3.1 · 24-31

+6pp→ 74% WP

RayJ Dennis · shooting foul

ATL3rd Quarter · 9:05 · 70-75

+6pp→ 30% WP

Zaccharie Risacher · makes 14-foot two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	24	37	23	33	117
MIA	33	37	29	44	143

Period scoring

ATL won 0 · MIA won 3

Risacher 5

Adebayo 13

Hield 13

Johnson 8

Kispert 9

Jr. 7

Hield 15

Jr. 9

ATL

MIA

Shooting comparison

ATL

MIA

47%

44-93

56%

58-103

39%

17-44

3PT

41%

15-37

67%

12-18

71%

12-17

Play-by-play · 459 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 117·MIA 143
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 117·MIA 143
Q4·14.7
Trevor Keels makes two point shot (Jahmir Young assists)
·
ATL 117·MIA 143
Q4·19.1
Vladislav Goldin defensive rebound
ATL 117·MIA 141
Q4·22.5
Asa Newell misses layup
ATL 117·MIA 141
Q4·34.6
Vladislav Goldin makes free throw 1 of 1
ATL 117·MIA 141
Q4·34.6
Asa Newell shooting foul
ATL 117·MIA 140
Q4·34.6
Vladislav Goldin makes 3-foot layup (Myron Gardner assists)
·
ATL 117·MIA 140
Q4·34.6
Myron Gardner offensive rebound
ATL 117·MIA 138
Q4·38.7
Trevor Keels misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 117·MIA 138
Q4·44.1
RayJ Dennis makes layup (Keshon Gilbert assists)
·
ATL 117·MIA 138
Q4·52.9
Jahmir Young makes 23-foot three point jumper (Myron Gardner assists)
·
ATL 115·MIA 138
Q4·1:04
Keshon Gilbert makes two point shot (RayJ Dennis assists)
·
ATL 115·MIA 135
Q4·1:05
Asa Newell defensive rebound
ATL 113·MIA 135
Q4·1:07
Trevor Keels misses 19-foot running jump shot
ATL 113·MIA 135
Q4·1:13
Christian Koloko lost ball turnover (Trevor Keels steals)
·
ATL 113·MIA 135
Q4·1:14
Christian Koloko offensive rebound
ATL 113·MIA 135
Q4·1:19
Vladislav Goldin blocks Christian Koloko 's 3-foot dunk
·
ATL 113·MIA 135
Q4·1:34
Keshad Johnson makes running layup
ATL 113·MIA 135
Q4·1:38
Vladislav Goldin defensive rebound
ATL 113·MIA 133
Q4·1:41
Keaton Wallace misses driving floating jump shot
ATL 113·MIA 133
Q4·1:50
Myron Gardner makes running dunk (Keshad Johnson assists)
·
ATL 113·MIA 133
Q4·1:52
Asa Newell bad pass turnover (Keshad Johnson steals)
·
ATL 113·MIA 131
Q4·1:54
Asa Newell defensive rebound
ATL 113·MIA 131
Q4·1:56
Myron Gardner misses driving layup
ATL 113·MIA 131
Q4·2:10
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
ATL 113·MIA 131
Q4·2:15
Asa Newell misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 113·MIA 131
Q4·2:15
Hawks offensive team rebound
ATL 113·MIA 131
Q4·2:15
Asa Newell misses free throw 1 of 2
ATL 113·MIA 131
Q4·2:15
Vladislav Goldin shooting foul
ATL 113·MIA 131

Betting line

MIA -10.5·O/U 239.5·ATL +360/MIA -470

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat held off Atlanta Hawks, 143–117. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIA -10.5 cashed (won by 26). Total cleared the 239.5 OVER by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891
Davion MitchellMIA · G
TOUCHES65.289
Tyler HerroMIL · G
DRIVES10.389

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

145

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Jalen JohnsonATL
19.8± 3.8high
CJ McCollumATL
19.4± 8.5high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Jalen JohnsonATL
9.1± 2.5high

Assists

Ryan NembhardATL
6.2± 5.9high
Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Jalen JohnsonATL
5.8± 1.8high

Blocks

CJ McCollumATL
0.9± 0.9high
Onyeka OkongwuATL
0.9± 0.7high
Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Dyson DanielsATL
2.1± 1.3high
Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high
Bam AdebayoMIA
1.2± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

MIA

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

47.2%

FG%

47.0

46.8%

117.2

PPG

114.9

▶

120.9

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

29.0

13.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Team pages

Atlanta HawksMiami Heat

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR