NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5BOS

ORL

45-37

108113

BOS

56-26

NBASun, Apr 12FinalSeriesBOS wins series 3-1VegasORL -12.5

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off Orlando Magic, 113–108. Decided by 5.

BOS +12.5 cashed (ORL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 222.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ORL · top performer

Jalen Suggs

G · #4

15.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Baylor Scheierman

G · #55

24.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	38	23	7-22	0-5	9-11	+2	10	11
F. WagnerF · #22	26	20	7-18	2-7	4-4	-4	4	1
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	31	3	0-5	0-2	3-4	-4	8	2
D. BaneG · #3	18	8	3-8	1-4	1-2	+9	2	1
J. SuggsG · #4	38	23	8-17	7-15	—	+6	6	3
Bench
J. CainF · #8	16	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	-9	2	0
T. da SilvaF · #23	24	8	3-6	0-2	2-2	+3	6	2
G. BitadzeC · #35	16	5	2-2	—	1-2	-1	7	1
J. CarterG · #2	15	3	1-3	1-3	—	-14	2	0
A. BlackG · #0	19	13	5-9	1-4	2-3	-13	3	1
Team		108	36-91	12-43	24-30		50	22
DNP: M. Wagner, N. Penda, C. Castleton, A. Morales, J. Richardson

DNP: M. Wagner, N. Penda, C. Castleton, A. Morales, J. Richardson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. GarzaC · #52	38	27	10-18	3-6	4-4	+13	12	1
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	37	27	10-20	5-12	2-2	+7	7	4
B. ScheiermanG · #55	39	30	8-20	6-14	8-8	+15	7	7
J. WalshG · #27	33	9	2-9	1-6	4-4	-14	8	3
M. ShulgaG · #44	18	3	1-4	1-3	—	+8	3	0
Bench
D. BantonF · #45	37	2	0-3	0-1	2-2	+3	4	7
A. WilliamsF · #77	10	2	1-1	—	—	-8	1	1
J. TonjeG · #8	30	13	4-12	3-8	2-2	+1	4	1
Team		113	36-87	19-50	22-22		46	24
DNP: S. Hauser, N. Vucevic, N. Queta, P. Pritchard, H. Gonzalez

DNP: S. Hauser, N. Vucevic, N. Queta, P. Pritchard, H. Gonzalez

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

BOS wins series 3-1

Nov 8

BOS110@

ORL123

Nov 9

BOS111@

ORL107

Nov 23

ORL129@

BOS138

Apr 12

ORL108@

BOS113today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL-75088%

BOS+52516%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -12.5↗SpreadBet ORL -12.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowORL ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 23pp · 4th Quarter · 31.7

ORL

J. Suggs

Game leader · 38 min

23 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST

BOS

B. Scheierman

Game leader · 39 min30-point game

30 PTS · 7 REB · 7 AST

How it ended

BOS beat ORL 113-108. B. Scheierman paced them with 30 PTS, 7 REB, 7 AST. BOS outscored the other side 42-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST

GS 50

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 20 REB · 4 AST

GS 25

BOSstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 37 REB · 15 AST

GS 77

Bench(3)

17 PTS · 9 REB · 9 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL4th Quarter · 1:37 · 105-108

+21pp→ 34% WP

Wendell Carter Jr. · makes free throw 1 of 2

ORL4th Quarter · 36.4 · 108-108

+23pp→ 48% WP

Jalen Suggs · makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Paolo Banchero assists)

BOS4th Quarter · 31.7 · 108-111

+23pp→ 75% WP

Luka Garza · makes 28-foot turnaround jump shot (Dalano Banton assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	29	32	20	27	108
BOS	20	32	42	19	113

Period scoring

ORL won 2 · BOS won 1

Wagner 8

Jr. 12

Suggs 8

Scheierman 11

Wagner 6

Scheierman 17

Black 8

Garza 7

ORL

BOS

Shooting comparison

ORL

BOS

40%

36-91

41%

36-87

28%

12-43

3PT

38%

19-50

80%

24-30

100%

22-22

Play-by-play · 495 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 108·BOS 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 108·BOS 113
Q4·0.1
Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
ORL 108·BOS 113
Q4·1.9
Desmond Bane misses 23-foot three point jumper
ORL 108·BOS 113
+0.7pp
Q4·2.7
Magic offensive team rebound
ORL 108·BOS 113
Q4·5.5
Paolo Banchero misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 108·BOS 113
+2pp
Q4·7.9
Desmond Bane enters the game for Goga Bitadze
·
ORL 108·BOS 113
Q4·7.9
Magic Full timeout
ORL 108·BOS 113
Q4·7.9
Jordan Walsh makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 108·BOS 113
−2pp
Q4·7.9
Goga Bitadze enters the game for Desmond Bane
·
ORL 108·BOS 112
Q4·7.9
Jordan Walsh makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 108·BOS 112
+0.5pp
Q4·7.9
Paolo Banchero personal take foul
ORL 108·BOS 111
Q4·9.5
Jalen Suggs personal take foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 108·BOS 111
+8pp
Q4·17.6
Luka Garza defensive rebound
ORL 108·BOS 111
+3pp
Q4·19.3
Jalen Suggs misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 108·BOS 111
+10pp
Q4·25.9
Wendell Carter Jr. vs. Baylor Scheierman (Jalen Suggs gains possession)
· ·
ORL 108·BOS 111
Q4·25.9
Wendell Carter Jr. offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
·
ORL 108·BOS 111
−8pp
Q4·28.2
Franz Wagner misses 29-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
ORL 108·BOS 111
+9pp
Q4·31.6
Franz Wagner enters the game for Anthony Black
· ·
ORL 108·BOS 111
Q4·31.6
Magic Full timeout
ORL 108·BOS 111
Q4·31.7
Luka Garza makes 28-foot turnaround jump shot (Dalano Banton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ORL 108·BOS 111
+23pp
Q4·35.5
Anthony Black enters the game for Franz Wagner
· ·
ORL 108·BOS 108
Q4·35.5
Celtics Full timeout
ORL 108·BOS 108
Q4·36.4
Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Paolo Banchero assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ORL 108·BOS 108
−23pp
Q4·40.7
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
ORL 105·BOS 108
−3pp
Q4·42.3
John Tonje misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ORL 105·BOS 108
−6pp
Q4·1:01
Paolo Banchero steps out of bounds turnoverBIG MOMENT
ORL 105·BOS 108
+10pp
Q4·1:11
Desmond Bane offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
ORL 105·BOS 108
−7pp
Q4·1:13
Baylor Scheierman blocks Franz Wagner 's 3-foot running layupBIG MOMENT
· ·
ORL 105·BOS 108
+7pp
Q4·1:17
Dalano Banton lost ball turnover (Franz Wagner steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
ORL 105·BOS 108
−9pp

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

36-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-87

FG %

12-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

19-50

24-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-22

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

ORL -12.5·O/U 222.5·ORL -750/BOS +525

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Franz WagnerORL · F
DEFL4.398
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Jaylen BrownBOS
26.6± 6.3high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Jayson TatumBOS
22.9± 3.5high

Rebounds

Jayson TatumBOS
10.4± 3.8high
Neemias QuetaBOS
8.4± 3.6high
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high

Assists

Jayson TatumBOS
6.4± 2.6high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Payton PritchardBOS
5.4± 2.2high

Blocks

Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high
Derrick WhiteBOS
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high
Desmond BaneORL
1.5± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

BOS

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.5%

114.2

PPG

114.9

114.2

26.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR