MIL
32-50
PHI
45-37
MIL · top performer
Cormac Ryan
G · #30
22
Pts
10
Reb
4
Ast
PHI · top performer
Quentin Grimes
G · #5
20
Pts
3
Reb
5
Ast
Biggest swing: 25pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:20
NBA · Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 14 | 5-14 | 3-10 | 1-1 | -30 | 5 | 2 | |
| 41 | 11 | 4-12 | 0-6 | 3-3 | -12 | 7 | 8 | |
| 31 | 15 | 7-9 | — | 1-1 | -19 | 7 | 3 | |
| 38 | 22 | 8-20 | 3-12 | 3-3 | -18 | 10 | 4 | |
| 36 | 19 | 7-16 | 5-14 | — | -23 | 5 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 27 | 8 | 3-6 | — | 2-4 | -2 | 2 | 6 | |
| 4 | 8 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-2 | +6 | 2 | 0 | |
| 30 | 9 | 3-10 | 0-2 | 3-8 | -2 | 7 | 2 | |
| Team | 106 | 39-90 | 13-47 | 15-22 | 45 | 26 | ||
| DNP: B. Portis, P. Nance, K. Porter Jr. | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 21 | 11 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 2-2 | +2 | 5 | 2 | |
| 17 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | +10 | 2 | 0 | |
| 23 | 11 | 4-8 | 0-3 | 3-3 | +8 | 5 | 1 | |
| 27 | 21 | 8-13 | 2-5 | 3-3 | +13 | 2 | 1 | |
| 31 | 9 | 4-11 | 1-5 | — | +31 | 7 | 11 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 7 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -15 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | -2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 8 | 7 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 2-4 | -13 | 2 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1-1 | — | 0-1 | -6 | 2 | 0 | |
| 23 | 17 | 6-13 | 5-8 | — | +24 | 1 | 2 | |
| 20 | 7 | 2-2 | — | 3-4 | +18 | 3 | 2 | |
| 23 | 12 | 5-10 | 2-3 | — | +26 | 12 | 3 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-5 | — | -6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 20 | 7-13 | 4-6 | 2-2 | +13 | 3 | 5 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 126 | 47-91 | 16-41 | 16-21 | 45 | 28 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
52
26
Ast
28
Team stats
MIL
Away
Stat
PHI
Home
39-90
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
47-91
43
FG %
52
13-47
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
16-41
15-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-21
26
Assists
28
17
Turnovers
12
Season series
PHI wins series 4-0
PHI123@MIL114PHI116@MIL101MIL122@PHI139MIL106@PHI126todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
PHI -16.5
Between 10 and —
Total
225.5
Standard · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIL+80011%PHI-135093%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 15 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
16.5
0.0 since open
Total
225.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
PHI beat MIL 126-106. Q. Grimes led with 20 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST. PHI outscored the other side 38-16 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHI vs MIL
Starters vs bench
production by unitMILstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
81 PTS · 34 REB · 18 AST
GS 57
Bench(3)
25 PTS · 11 REB · 8 AST
GS 22
PHIstarters 44% of ptsStarters(5)
56 PTS · 21 REB · 15 AST
GS 49
Bench(10)
70 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST
GS 62
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactAndre Drummond · makes 23-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)
Taurean Prince · enters the game for Thanasis Antetokounmpo
Kelly Oubre Jr. · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 26 | 36 | 16 | 28 | 106 |
| PHI | 29 | 29 | 38 | 30 | 126 |
Period scoring
MIL won 1 · PHI won 3
Q1
Green 11
George 11
Q2
Ryan 10
Grimes 7
Q3
Ryan 5
Jr. 20
Q4
Antetokounmpo 8
Grimes 11
Shooting comparison
43%
39-90
FG
52%
47-91
28%
13-47
3PT
39%
16-41
68%
15-22
FT
76%
16-21
Play-by-play · 465 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 106·PHI 126
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 106·PHI 126
- Q4·0.0
76ers offensive team rebound
MIL 106·PHI 126
- Q4·0.0
Kyle Lowry misses heave jump shot
MIL 106·PHI 126
- Q4·1.8
Alex Antetokounmpo makes 28-foot three point jumper (Thanasis Antetokounmpo assists)
·
MIL 106·PHI 126
- Q4·17.5
Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
MIL 103·PHI 126
- Q4·20.3
Kyle Lowry misses 31-foot three point jumper
MIL 103·PHI 126
- Q4·22.2
Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2
·
MIL 103·PHI 126
- Q4·22.2
Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2
·
MIL 102·PHI 126
- Q4·22.2
Trendon Watford shooting foul
MIL 101·PHI 126
- Q4·33.8
MarJon Beauchamp makes 2-foot driving dunk
MIL 101·PHI 126
- Q4·33.8
MarJon Beauchamp offensive rebound
MIL 101·PHI 124
- Q4·38.0
Kyle Lowry misses 30-foot running jump shot
MIL 101·PHI 124
- Q4·43.1
Dalen Terry defensive rebound
MIL 101·PHI 124
- Q4·46.4
Alex Antetokounmpo misses 24-foot jump bank shot
·
MIL 101·PHI 124
- Q4·52.0
Bucks offensive team rebound
MIL 101·PHI 124
- Q4·52.0
Trendon Watford blocks Cormac Ryan 's 1-foot two point shot
·
MIL 101·PHI 124
- Q4·59.3
Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
MIL 101·PHI 124
- Q4·1:01
Kyle Lowry misses 30-foot three point jumper
MIL 101·PHI 124
- Q4·1:07
76ers defensive team rebound
MIL 101·PHI 124
- Q4·1:09
Ousmane Dieng misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIL 101·PHI 124
- Q4·1:29
MarJon Beauchamp makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 101·PHI 124
- Q4·1:29
Tyrese Martin enters the game for Jabari Walker
·
MIL 101·PHI 123
- Q4·1:29
76ers offensive team rebound
MIL 101·PHI 123
- Q4·1:29
MarJon Beauchamp misses free throw 1 of 2
MIL 101·PHI 123
- Q4·1:29
Alex Antetokounmpo shooting foul
·
MIL 101·PHI 123
- Q4·1:38
Jabari Walker defensive rebound
MIL 101·PHI 123
- Q4·1:41
Andre Jackson Jr. misses free throw 1 of 1
MIL 101·PHI 123
- Q4·1:41
Jabari Walker shooting foul
MIL 101·PHI 123
- Q4·1:41
Andre Jackson Jr. makes 1-foot two point shot
MIL 101·PHI 123
Betting line
PHI -16.5·O/U 225.5·MIL +800/PHI -1350
Recap · NBA
hiladelphia 76ers held off Milwaukee Bucks, 126–106. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
PHI -16.5 cashed (won by 20). Total cleared the 225.5 OVER by 6.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Jericho SimsMIL · CTS%77.299+
Tyrese MaxeyPHI · GTOUCHES94.599- Cormac RyanMIL · GTS%69.298
Paul GeorgePHI · FDEFL3.596
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI · GDEFL3.194
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHI vs MIL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Joel EmbiidPHI25.3± 7.2high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL25.0± 4.5high
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI25.0± 6.5high
Rebounds
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL9.9± 4.4high
- Joel EmbiidPHI8.0± 3.5high
- Jericho SimsMIL7.5± 4.7high
Assists
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL6.9± 2.8high
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI5.9± 1.9high
- Ryan RollinsMIL5.5± 1.9high
Blocks
- Myles TurnerMIL1.8± 1.6high
- Joel EmbiidPHI1.3± 1.4high
- Adem BonaPHI1.1± 1.3high
Steals
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL2.1± 1.4high
- Ryan RollinsMIL1.5± 1.1high
- Paul GeorgePHI1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIL
league avg
PHI
56.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
52.9%
47.7%
FG%
47.0
46.0%
110.6
PPG
114.9
▶114.3
25.8
Assists / G
25.0
24.1
14.5
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶12.8