NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+32PHX

PHX

45-37

135103

OKC

64-18

NBASun, Apr 12FinalSeriesOKC wins series 3-2VegasOKC -7.5

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns went into Oklahoma City Thunder and beat them, 135–103. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PHX +7.5 cashed (OKC lost outright). Total cleared the 213.5 OVER by 24.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHX · top performer

Ryan Dunn

F · #0

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Branden Carlson

C · #15

24.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. IghodaroF · #11	14	2	1-3	—	—	+16	6	5
R. DunnF · #0	25	20	8-11	2-3	2-3	+22	11	5
R. FlemingF · #20	38	16	6-13	4-7	—	+20	6	2
A. CoffeyG · #2	27	17	7-14	3-6	—	+20	3	3
J. BouyeaG · #17	40	27	12-23	3-8	0-2	+37	5	9
Bench
H. HighsmithF · #19	10	5	2-3	0-1	1-1	+2	0	0
C. HuntleyF · #22	29	10	5-8	0-2	—	+16	4	1
K. MaluachC · #10	29	18	8-15	2-5	—	+14	14	0
K. BreaG · #14	29	20	7-11	6-9	—	+13	5	3
Team		135	56-101	20-41	3-6		54	28
DNP: M. Williams, J. Goodwin, C. Gillespie, J. Green

DNP: M. Williams, J. Goodwin, C. Gillespie, J. Green

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarlsonC · #15	42	26	10-20	5-10	1-2	-18	10	1
L. DortG · #5	20	6	2-6	2-5	—	-28	1	1
A. WigginsG · #21	27	3	1-7	1-3	—	-22	2	5
J. McCainG · #3	25	9	4-13	0-4	1-2	-29	4	2
N. TopicG · #44	39	18	8-16	2-5	0-3	-18	4	14
Bench
B. BarnhizerF · #23	26	5	2-8	1-4	—	-22	2	1
P. SandfortF · #14	28	23	9-13	5-9	—	+3	4	0
K. WilliamsG · #34	33	13	5-12	2-6	1-2	-26	9	8
Team		103	41-95	18-46	3-9		36	32
DNP: Jay. Williams, I. Joe, C. Wallace, A. Mitchell

DNP: Jay. Williams, I. Joe, C. Wallace, A. Mitchell

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Playoff series

OKC wins series 4-0

Apr 19

PHX84@

OKC119

Apr 23

PHX107@

OKC120

Apr 25

OKC121@

PHX109

Apr 28

OKC131@

PHX122

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

213.5

Defensive · -12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX+25029%

OKC-31076%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -7.5↗SpreadBet OKC -7.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

213.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHX ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:39

PHX

R. Dunn

Game leader · 25 minDouble-double

20 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST

OKC

B. Carlson

Game leader · 42 minDouble-double

26 PTS · 10 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

PHX beat OKC 135-103. R. Dunn led with 20 PTS, 11 REB, 5 AST. PHX outscored the other side 37-19 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 31 REB · 24 AST

GS 74

Bench(4)

53 PTS · 23 REB · 4 AST

GS 48

OKCstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 21 REB · 23 AST

GS 50

Bench(3)

41 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 38

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	37	33	34	31	135
OKC	19	33	25	26	103

Period scoring

PHX won 3 · OKC won 0

Dunn 10

Sandfort 8

Dunn 8

Carlson 8

Coffey 10

Topic 7

Maluach 10

Carlson 13

PHX

OKC

Shooting comparison

PHX

OKC

55%

56-101

43%

41-95

49%

20-41

3PT

39%

18-46

50%

3-6

33%

3-9

Play-by-play · 422 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 135·OKC 103
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 135·OKC 103
Q4·13.0
shot clock turnover
PHX 135·OKC 103
Q4·35.5
Rasheer Fleming defensive rebound
PHX 135·OKC 103
Q4·38.6
Branden Carlson misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHX 135·OKC 103
Q4·48.6
Koby Brea makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHX 135·OKC 103
Q4·1:00
Khaman Maluach defensive rebound
PHX 132·OKC 103
Q4·1:03
Jamaree Bouyea blocks Kenrich Williams 's 2-foot layup
· ·
PHX 132·OKC 103
Q4·1:12
Rasheer Fleming makes 8-foot two point shot
PHX 132·OKC 103
Q4·1:34
Payton Sandfort makes 3-foot running jump shot (Kenrich Williams assists)
· ·
PHX 130·OKC 103
Q4·1:37
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
· ·
PHX 130·OKC 101
Q4·1:39
Jamaree Bouyea misses running pullup jump shot
PHX 130·OKC 101
Q4·1:45
Jamaree Bouyea defensive rebound
PHX 130·OKC 101
Q4·1:48
Kenrich Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper
· ·
PHX 130·OKC 101
Q4·2:00
Koby Brea makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamaree Bouyea assists)
·
PHX 130·OKC 101
Q4·2:04
Kenrich Williams personal foul
· ·
PHX 127·OKC 101
Q4·2:04
Khaman Maluach offensive rebound
PHX 127·OKC 101
Q4·2:06
Koby Brea misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 127·OKC 101
Q4·2:12
Khaman Maluach defensive rebound
PHX 127·OKC 101
Q4·2:14
Brooks Barnhizer misses running dunk
PHX 127·OKC 101
Q4·2:17
Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound
PHX 127·OKC 101
Q4·2:21
Khaman Maluach misses 22-foot three point jumper
PHX 127·OKC 101
Q4·2:39
Suns defensive team rebound
PHX 127·OKC 101
Q4·2:41
Brooks Barnhizer misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 127·OKC 101
Q4·2:51
Khaman Maluach makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jamaree Bouyea assists)
·
PHX 127·OKC 101
Q4·2:56
Nikola Topic personal foul
PHX 124·OKC 101
Q4·3:00
Rasheer Fleming defensive rebound
PHX 124·OKC 101
Q4·3:03
Branden Carlson misses 26-foot three point jumper
PHX 124·OKC 101
Q4·3:11
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
PHX 124·OKC 101
Q4·3:11
Branden Carlson blocks Khaman Maluach 's 2-foot two point shot
·
PHX 124·OKC 101

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

56-101

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-95

FG %

20-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-46

3-6

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

3-9

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

OKC -7.5·O/U 213.5·PHX +250/OKC -310

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort

Oso IghodaroPHX · F
CONT792
Jamaree BouyeaPHX · G
DEFL272

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

OKC vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high
Mark WilliamsPHX
7.2± 2.3high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Jalen WilliamsOKC
4.8± 2.9high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high
Branden CarlsonOKC
0.9± 1.6high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

OKC

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.2%

112.2

PPG

114.9

▶

118.5

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.8

13.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR