NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13CLE

WSH

17-65

117130

CLE

52-30

NBASun, Apr 12FinalSeriesCLE wins series 4-0VegasCLE -10.5

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers held off Washington Wizards, 130–117.

CLE -10.5 cashed (won by 13). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

Jamir Watkins

G · #5

19.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Nae'Qwan Tomlin

F · #35

25.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GillF · #16	30	14	6-7	2-3	—	-10	6	0
J. ChampagnieF · #9	32	13	5-14	3-10	—	-6	6	3
J. WatkinsG · #5	34	24	7-13	5-9	5-6	-10	4	3
B. CarringtonG · #7	38	20	7-18	4-6	2-3	-3	2	9
W. RileyG · #27	34	6	2-11	0-3	2-2	-8	5	4
Bench
L. BlackF · #14	9	0	0-3	0-2	—	-3	1	1
J. ReeseF · #15	18	14	5-7	—	4-4	-3	3	0
S. CooperG · #13	28	20	8-11	2-4	2-2	-13	2	6
J. HardyG · #8	16	6	2-6	2-4	0-2	-9	1	3
Team		117	42-90	18-41	15-19		30	29
DNP: T. Vukcevic, C. Whitmore

DNP: T. Vukcevic, C. Whitmore

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. Nance Jr.F · #22	20	10	4-6	1-3	1-2	-5	6	3
N. TomlinF · #35	36	26	9-16	4-8	4-4	+3	8	5
M. StrusG · #2	18	10	4-9	1-6	1-1	+7	5	2
J. TysonG · #20	26	18	6-16	3-7	3-4	-3	6	3
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	28	7	3-5	1-1	—	+11	7	4
Bench
O. SarrF · #33	24	10	4-6	1-2	1-3	+18	6	2
T. EnarunaF · #21	28	15	4-6	2-3	5-6	+8	3	3
R. MinixF · #12	25	12	5-9	1-5	1-1	+16	1	1
T. ProctorG · #24	35	22	9-16	4-8	—	+10	11	8
Team		130	48-89	18-43	16-21		53	31
DNP: D. Schroder, K. Ellis

DNP: D. Schroder, K. Ellis

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

CLE wins series 4-0

Nov 8

CLE148@

WSH115

Dec 13

CLE130@

WSH126

Feb 12

WSH113@

CLE138

Apr 12

WSH117@

CLE130today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+38021%

CLE-50083%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -10.5↗SpreadBet CLE -10.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 7pp · 4th Quarter · 5:52

WSH

J. Watkins

Game leader · 34 min

24 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST

CLE

N. Tomlin

Game leader · 36 min

26 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST

How it ended

CLE beat WSH 130-117. N. Tomlin paced them with 26 PTS, 8 REB, 5 AST. CLE outscored the other side 43-21 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 23 REB · 19 AST

GS 58

Bench(4)

40 PTS · 7 REB · 10 AST

GS 35

CLEstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 32 REB · 17 AST

GS 62

Bench(4)

59 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST

GS 52

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSH4th Quarter · 5:52 · 111-116

+7pp→ 9% WP

Nae'Qwan Tomlin · misses 2-foot tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	21	34	40	22	117
CLE	43	22	34	31	130

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · CLE won 2

Gill 7

Tyson 11

Carrington 12

Tomlin 8

Champagnie 9

Tomlin 7

Watkins 7

Proctor 10

WSH

CLE

Shooting comparison

WSH

CLE

47%

42-90

54%

48-89

44%

18-41

3PT

42%

18-43

79%

15-19

76%

16-21

Play-by-play · 459 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 117·CLE 130
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 117·CLE 130
Q4·7.5
Jamir Watkins makes 1-foot running dunk (Will Riley assists)
·
WSH 117·CLE 130
Q4·8.1
Will Riley defensive rebound
WSH 115·CLE 130
Q4·11.8
Riley Minix misses 23-foot three point jumper
·
WSH 115·CLE 130
Q4·33.2
Nae'Qwan Tomlin defensive rebound
WSH 115·CLE 130
Q4·36.2
Sharife Cooper misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
WSH 115·CLE 130
Q4·44.4
Nae'Qwan Tomlin kicked ball violation
WSH 115·CLE 130
Q4·51.7
Tyrese Proctor makes 25-foot three pointer
WSH 115·CLE 130
Q4·1:06
Tyrese Proctor defensive rebound
WSH 115·CLE 127
Q4·1:08
Jamir Watkins misses 25-foot three point jumper
WSH 115·CLE 127
Q4·1:13
Sharife Cooper offensive rebound
WSH 115·CLE 127
Q4·1:15
Will Riley misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
WSH 115·CLE 127
Q4·1:23
Tyrese Proctor out of bounds bad pass turnover
WSH 115·CLE 127
Q4·1:28
Sharife Cooper bad pass turnover (Olivier Sarr steals)
·
WSH 115·CLE 127
Q4·1:28
Sharife Cooper offensive rebound
WSH 115·CLE 127
Q4·1:30
Jamir Watkins misses driving floating jump shot
WSH 115·CLE 127
Q4·1:43
Justin Champagnie ejected
WSH 115·CLE 127
Q4·1:43
Olivier Sarr makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 115·CLE 127
Q4·1:43
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
WSH 115·CLE 126
Q4·1:43
Olivier Sarr misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 115·CLE 126
Q4·1:43
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
WSH 115·CLE 126
Q4·1:43
Olivier Sarr misses technical free throw
WSH 115·CLE 126
Q4·1:43
Sharife Cooper enters the game for Justin Champagnie
·
WSH 115·CLE 126
Q4·1:43
Justin Champagnie technical foul
WSH 115·CLE 126
Q4·1:43
Justin Champagnie shooting foul
WSH 115·CLE 126
Q4·1:45
Justin Champagnie makes driving layup
WSH 115·CLE 126
Q4·1:57
Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 113·CLE 126
Q4·1:57
Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 113·CLE 125
Q4·1:57
Bub Carrington shooting foul
WSH 113·CLE 124

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

42-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-89

FG %

18-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-43

15-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-21

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

CLE -10.5·O/U 234.5·WSH +380/CLE -500

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 5 players in cohort

Max StrusCLE · G
TS%60.973
Jaylon TysonCLE · G
TS%60.871

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high

Assists

Trae YoungWSH
8.1± 3.5medium
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high

Steals

Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high
Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

WSH

league avg

CLE

53.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.6%

46.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

112.9

PPG

114.9

▶

117.4

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.1

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR