NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+31HOU

MEM

25-57

101132

HOU

52-30

NBASun, Apr 12FinalSeriesHOU wins series 4-0VegasHOU -14.5

MEM · top performer

Dariq Whitehead

F · #0

16.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Clint Capela

C · #30

27.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMEM ↔ HOU

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. GibsonF · #67	19	4	1-4	—	2-2	-7	4	1
D. WhiteheadF · #0	39	26	11-21	4-11	—	-13	4	1
T. OkaniF · #5	41	6	3-10	0-4	—	-24	7	1
J. MashackG · #21	38	11	4-12	2-9	1-1	-32	1	11
R. RupertG · #21	42	21	8-15	2-5	3-3	-24	12	5
Bench
L. WilliamsonG · #55	35	15	5-14	3-10	2-2	-31	6	3
J. SmallG · #10	26	18	7-19	2-10	2-2	-24	3	1
Team		101	39-95	13-49	10-10		37	23
DNP: O. Prosper, C. Coward, G. Jackson, C. Spencer, A. Bal

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. TateF · #8	26	13	6-9	1-2	0-1	+11	6	2
T. EasonF · #17	24	20	8-17	1-5	3-3	+20	8	3
C. CapelaC · #30	23	23	9-11	1-2	4-7	+24	13	1
J. OkogieG · #20	22	3	1-6	1-3	—	+21	4	2
R. SheppardG · #15	26	19	7-18	4-12	1-2	+18	4	3
Bench
J. GreenF · #32	24	6	2-8	0-4	2-2	+7	5	1
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	21	9	3-8	1-5	2-2	+22	2	1
I. CrawfordF · #27	16	11	4-6	1-3	2-2	-8	6	1
A. HolidayG · #0	20	7	2-4	2-4	1-2	+17	3	2
J. DavisonG · #4	26	9	2-9	0-4	5-6	+21	10	7
T. NewtonG · #00	12	12	4-9	2-5	2-3	+2	3	0
Team		132	48-105	14-49	22-30		64	23
DNP: A. Thompson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

39-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-105

FG %

13-49

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-49

10-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

HOU wins series 4-0

Nov 6

HOU124@

MEM109

Jan 27

MEM99@

HOU108

Mar 28

HOU119@

MEM109

Apr 13

MEM101@

HOU132today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM+70013%

HOU-110092%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -14.5↗SpreadBet HOU -14.5↗

Line movement · 29 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat MEM 132-101. C. Capela led with 23 PTS, 13 REB, 1 AST. HOU outscored the other side 34-19 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 28 REB · 19 AST

GS 49

Bench(2)

33 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST

GS 20

HOUstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 35 REB · 11 AST

GS 69

Bench(6)

54 PTS · 29 REB · 12 AST

GS 50

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	26	19	26	30	101
HOU	32	34	34	32	132

Period scoring

MEM won 0 · HOU won 4

Whitehead 14

Eason 8

Whitehead 8

Sheppard 7

Small 12

Sheppard 9

Mashack 9

Newton 12

MEM

HOU

Shooting comparison

MEM

HOU

41%

39-95

46%

48-105

27%

13-49

3PT

29%

14-49

100%

10-10

73%

22-30

Play-by-play · 479 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 101·HOU 132
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 101·HOU 132
Q4·14.8
Dariq Whitehead makes 4-foot two point shot
MEM 101·HOU 132
Q4·21.0
Dariq Whitehead defensive rebound
MEM 99·HOU 132
Q4·24.2
JD Davison misses 37-foot three point shot
MEM 99·HOU 132
Q4·36.2
Tristen Newton offensive rebound
MEM 99·HOU 132
Q4·39.2
Jeff Green misses 28-foot three point jumper
MEM 99·HOU 132
Q4·51.1
Rockets offensive team rebound
MEM 99·HOU 132
Q4·52.6
Jeff Green misses 29-foot three point jumper
MEM 99·HOU 132
Q4·1:06
JD Davison defensive rebound
MEM 99·HOU 132
Q4·1:08
Toby Okani misses 23-foot three point jumper
MEM 99·HOU 132
Q4·1:26
Tristen Newton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jae'Sean Tate assists)
·
MEM 99·HOU 132
Q4·1:40
JD Davison defensive rebound
MEM 99·HOU 129
Q4·1:42
Toby Okani misses running pullup jump shot
MEM 99·HOU 129
Q4·1:48
Lucas Williamson defensive rebound
MEM 99·HOU 129
Q4·1:48
Tristen Newton misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
MEM 99·HOU 129
Q4·2:04
Javon Small makes driving layup
MEM 99·HOU 129
Q4·2:16
JD Davison makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 97·HOU 129
Q4·2:16
JD Davison makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 97·HOU 128
Q4·2:16
Javon Small enters the game for Jahmai Mashack
·
MEM 97·HOU 127
Q4·2:16
Jahmai Mashack shooting foul
MEM 97·HOU 127
Q4·2:27
Rayan Rupert makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 97·HOU 127
Q4·2:27
Rayan Rupert makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 96·HOU 127
Q4·2:27
Grizzlies Full timeout
MEM 95·HOU 127
Q4·2:27
Jeff Green shooting foul
MEM 95·HOU 127
Q4·2:32
Rayan Rupert defensive rebound
MEM 95·HOU 127
Q4·2:33
Jae'Sean Tate misses 11-foot fade away jump shot
MEM 95·HOU 127
Q4·2:56
Jahmai Mashack makes 25-foot three pointer
MEM 95·HOU 127
Q4·3:04
Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Aaron Holiday
·
MEM 92·HOU 127
Q4·3:04
Grizzlies defensive team rebound
MEM 92·HOU 127

Betting line

HOU -14.5·O/U 230.5·MEM +700/HOU -1100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets held off Memphis Grizzlies, 132–101. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

HOU -14.5 cashed (won by 31). Total cleared the 230.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Jahmai MashackMEM · G
DEFL393
Javon SmallMEM · G
TS%61.176
Rayan RupertPHI · G
DEFL2.175

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs MEM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high
Alperen SengunHOU
19.1± 6.9high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high

Assists

Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high
Alperen SengunHOU
5.6± 2.4high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

HOU

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.7%

45.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.4%

114.7

PPG

114.9

114.1

27.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.3

Team pages

Memphis GrizzliesHouston Rockets

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR