NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+18DET

DET

59-22

118100

CHA

43-38

NBAFri, Apr 10FinalSeriesDET wins series 3-0VegasCHA -6.5

DET · top performer

Jalen Duren

C · #0

18.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

LaMelo Ball

G · #1

21.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDET ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 13pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:44

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	25	8	3-5	1-1	1-3	+2	6	0
D. RobinsonF · #55	26	19	6-11	3-7	4-6	+1	3	1
J. DurenC · #0	22	20	8-11	—	4-4	+3	9	4
C. CunninghamG · #2	28	14	7-13	0-3	0-1	+3	2	7
A. ThompsonG · #9	25	12	5-8	—	2-3	+3	5	6
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	10	4	2-4	0-1	—	+6	7	0
I. StewartF · #28	16	5	2-4	0-1	1-2	+9	3	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	21	13	5-10	3-5	—	+10	5	1
J. GreenG · #31	15	6	1-1	1-1	3-3	+15	2	0
C. LeVertG · #8	15	6	2-7	0-1	2-2	0	2	3
K. HuerterG · #27	16	5	2-5	1-3	—	+22	3	3
M. SasserG · #25	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	1	1
C. LanierG · #20	2	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
D. JenkinsG · #24	18	6	2-9	0-3	2-2	+14	1	3
Team		118	45-89	9-27	19-26		49	29
DNP: T. Smith, I. Jones

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	23	10	3-7	1-4	3-4	-14	8	3
M. DiabateF · #14	25	8	3-4	—	2-4	-7	6	2
B. MillerF · #24	31	22	9-20	2-8	2-2	-8	3	0
L. BallG · #1	33	27	7-20	6-16	7-7	-14	5	8
K. KnueppelG · #7	29	10	4-12	2-8	—	-1	4	1
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	22	2	1-5	0-3	—	-6	4	0
X. TillmanF · #26	4	2	1-1	—	—	+1	2	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	23	4	1-1	—	2-2	-12	4	1
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	4	0	0-1	—	—	+1	0	0
C. WhiteG · #3	16	11	3-7	2-3	3-4	-20	2	1
J. GreenG · #10	11	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
T. MannG · #23	3	2	1-4	0-2	—	+1	0	0
S. JamesG · #4	17	2	1-6	0-3	—	-9	3	0
Team		100	34-88	13-47	19-23		41	16

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

45-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-88

FG %

9-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-47

19-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET wins series 3-0

Dec 21

CHA86@

DET112

Feb 10

DET110@

CHA104

Apr 10

DET118@

CHA100today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET+18036%

CHA-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -6.5↗SpreadBet CHA -6.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat CHA 118-100. J. Duren led with 20 PTS, 9 REB, 4 AST. DET outscored the other side 25-10 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 25 REB · 18 AST

GS 63

Bench(9)

45 PTS · 24 REB · 11 AST

GS 47

CHAstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 26 REB · 14 AST

GS 59

Bench(8)

23 PTS · 15 REB · 2 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET3rd Quarter · 7:50 · 74-73

+9pp→ 53% WP

Miles Bridges · misses 31-foot three point jumper

DET3rd Quarter · 4:14 · 84-83

+10pp→ 54% WP

Brandon Miller · misses 21-foot two point shot

DET3rd Quarter · 3:44 · 87-83

+13pp→ 63% WP

Ronald Holland II · enters the game for Tobias Harris

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	36	32	25	25	118
CHA	30	35	25	10	100

Period scoring

DET won 2 · CHA won 1

II 10

Miller 8

Duren 8

Ball 14

Robinson 7

Miller 11

Duren 6

Bridges 2

DET

CHA

Shooting comparison

DET

CHA

51%

45-89

39%

34-88

33%

9-27

3PT

28%

13-47

73%

19-26

83%

19-23

Play-by-play · 506 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 118·CHA 100
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 118·CHA 100
Q4·1.5
shot clock turnover
DET 118·CHA 100
Q4·23.5
Marcus Sasser defensive rebound
DET 118·CHA 100
Q4·23.5
Marcus Sasser blocks Tre Mann 's 6-foot driving layup
·
DET 118·CHA 100
Q4·35.1
Xavier Tillman defensive rebound
DET 118·CHA 100
Q4·37.9
Marcus Sasser misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
DET 118·CHA 100
Q4·58.3
Paul Reed defensive rebound
DET 118·CHA 100
Q4·1:00
Tre Mann misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
DET 118·CHA 100
Q4·1:15
Ronald Holland II makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)
·
DET 118·CHA 100
Q4·1:34
Tre Mann makes driving layup
DET 115·CHA 100
Q4·1:48
Paul Reed enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
·
DET 115·CHA 98
Q4·1:48
Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson
· ·
DET 115·CHA 98
Q4·1:48
Marcus Sasser enters the game for Tobias Harris
·
DET 115·CHA 98
Q4·1:48
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
DET 115·CHA 98
Q4·1:48
Chaz Lanier enters the game for Jalen Duren
·
DET 115·CHA 98
Q4·1:48
shot clock turnover
DET 115·CHA 98
Q4·2:16
Xavier Tillman makes 9-foot turnaround jump shot
DET 115·CHA 98
Q4·2:37
Daniss Jenkins enters the game for Cade Cunningham
·
DET 115·CHA 96
Q4·2:37
Ausar Thompson out of bounds bad pass turnover
DET 115·CHA 96
Q4·2:41
Pat Connaughton lost ball turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)
· ·
DET 115·CHA 96
Q4·2:47
Ryan Kalkbrenner offensive rebound
DET 115·CHA 96
Q4·2:48
Pat Connaughton misses driving floating jump shot
DET 115·CHA 96
Q4·3:02
Xavier Tillman defensive rebound
DET 115·CHA 96
Q4·3:04
Jalen Duren misses layup
DET 115·CHA 96
Q4·3:25
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
DET 115·CHA 96
Q4·3:28
Tre Mann misses 24-foot three point jumper
DET 115·CHA 96
Q4·3:30
Pat Connaughton enters the game for Moussa Diabate
·
DET 115·CHA 96
Q4·3:30
Tre Mann enters the game for Kon Knueppel
·
DET 115·CHA 96
Q4·3:30
Xavier Tillman enters the game for Sion James
·
DET 115·CHA 96

Betting line

CHA -6.5·O/U 225.5·DET +180/CHA -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons went into Charlotte Hornets and beat them, 118–100.

DET +6.5 cashed (CHA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHA vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Brandon MillerCHA
18.8± 5.5high
Coby WhiteCHA
15.4± 4.9high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Moussa DiabateCHA
8.8± 2.9high
Naz ReidCHA
7.1± 1.4high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Daniss JenkinsDET
3.5± 1.0high
Elijah HarklessDET
3.5± 2.7high

Blocks

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA
1.3± 1.3high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high
Moussa DiabateCHA
0.9± 1.1high

Steals

Elijah HarklessDET
1.5± 1.4high
Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high
Duncan RobinsonDET
1.2± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

CHA

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

115.9

PPG

114.9

115.8

27.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.2

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

14.4

Team pages

Detroit PistonsCharlotte Hornets

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR