NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MIN

MIN

48-33

136132

HOU

51-30

NBAFri, Apr 10FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-1VegasHOU -9.5

MIN · top performer

Kyle Anderson

F · #12

20.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Amen Thompson

G · #1

40.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 9:45

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. AndersonF · #12	33	17	7-12	—	3-5	+5	6	9
J. McDanielsF · #3	35	16	8-19	0-3	—	-1	7	2
J. BeringerF · #19	26	14	5-5	—	4-4	-3	4	1
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	29	18	6-12	3-8	3-6	+1	4	2
A. EdwardsG · #5	27	22	7-14	3-7	5-6	-6	2	3
Bench
M. ConleyG · #10	24	9	3-3	3-3	—	+17	1	4
A. DosunmuG · #13	26	15	6-10	1-2	2-2	-1	0	4
J. ClarkG · #22	12	2	1-1	—	—	+4	1	1
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	28	23	8-13	5-7	2-2	+4	0	1
Team		136	51-89	15-30	19-25		25	27
DNP: E. Freeman, J. Phillips, R. Zikarsky, Z. Pullin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	39	33	13-18	0-1	7-9	-3	7	7
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	40	16	5-12	2-6	4-6	-4	6	2
A. SengunC · #28	29	22	10-13	—	2-2	+7	6	8
J. OkogieG · #20	27	2	0-3	0-3	2-2	+1	1	2
A. ThompsonG · #1	42	41	17-22	0-1	7-7	+1	9	7
Bench
J. TateF · #8	8	2	1-2	—	—	-3	4	0
T. EasonF · #17	24	0	0-3	0-2	—	-3	1	0
C. CapelaC · #30	8	4	2-2	—	0-2	-2	1	0
A. HolidayG · #0	6	0	—	—	—	+3	1	0
R. SheppardG · #15	18	12	5-12	2-6	—	-17	3	3
Team		132	53-87	4-19	22-28		39	29
DNP: J. Green, D. Finney-Smith, I. Crawford, J. Davison, T. Newton

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

51-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

53-87

FG %

15-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

4-19

19-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN wins series 2-1

Jan 17

MIN105@

HOU110

Mar 26

HOU108@

MIN110

Apr 11

MIN136@

HOU132today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+37021%

HOU-48583%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -9.5↗SpreadBet HOU -9.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat HOU 136-132. K. Anderson led with 17 PTS, 6 REB, 9 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 23 REB · 17 AST

GS 75

Bench(4)

49 PTS · 2 REB · 10 AST

GS 43

HOUstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

114 PTS · 29 REB · 26 AST

GS 107

Bench(5)

18 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN4th Quarter · 9:45 · 111-112

+15pp→ 50% WP

Donte DiVincenzo · makes free throw 1 of 3

MIN4th Quarter · 8:09 · 116-112

+11pp→ 68% WP

Mike Conley · makes 25-foot running jump shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)

HOU4th Quarter · 1:08 · 132-127

+12pp→ 24% WP

Donte DiVincenzo · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	37	32	34	33	136
HOU	36	37	33	26	132

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · HOU won 1

Jr. 9

Thompson 36

Beringer 6

Thompson 12

Edwards 12

Durant 12

DiVincenzo 11

Thompson 11

MIN

HOU

Shooting comparison

MIN

HOU

57%

51-89

61%

53-87

50%

15-30

3PT

21%

4-19

76%

19-25

79%

22-28

Play-by-play · 457 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 136·HOU 132
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 136·HOU 132
−0.9pp
Q4·2.4
Amen Thompson makes 14-foot fade away jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)
·
MIN 136·HOU 132
Q4·6.3
Donte DiVincenzo out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIN 136·HOU 130
+0.7pp
Q4·6.7
Kyle Anderson defensive rebound
MIN 136·HOU 130
−0.5pp
Q4·10.1
Jabari Smith Jr. misses 23-foot jumper
MIN 136·HOU 130
−2pp
Q4·18.1
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
MIN 136·HOU 130
Q4·19.9
Kyle Anderson misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 136·HOU 130
+3pp
Q4·19.9
Alperen Sengun enters the game for Tari Eason
·
MIN 136·HOU 130
Q4·19.9
Kyle Anderson makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 136·HOU 130
Q4·19.9
Amen Thompson personal foul
MIN 135·HOU 130
−3pp
Q4·23.5
Donte DiVincenzo enters the game for Joan Beringer
·
MIN 135·HOU 130
Q4·23.5
Tari Eason enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
MIN 135·HOU 130
Q4·23.5
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 135·HOU 130
Q4·23.5
Amen Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 135·HOU 130
−3pp
Q4·23.5
Joan Beringer enters the game for Donte DiVincenzo
·
MIN 135·HOU 129
Q4·23.5
Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 135·HOU 129
+0.9pp
Q4·23.5
Kyle Anderson personal foul
MIN 135·HOU 128
+4pp
Q4·25.8
Anthony Edwards lost ball turnover (Amen Thompson steals)
·
MIN 135·HOU 128
+0.7pp
Q4·43.1
Kevin Durant out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIN 135·HOU 128
−2pp
Q4·50.5
Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jaden McDaniels assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 135·HOU 128
−9pp
Q4·1:08
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 132·HOU 128
−0.5pp
Q4·1:08
Rockets offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 132·HOU 127
−5pp
Q4·1:08
Kevin Durant misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 132·HOU 127
−6pp
Q4·1:08
Donte DiVincenzo shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 132·HOU 127
+13pp
Q4·1:18
Donte DiVincenzo enters the game for Terrence Shannon Jr.
·
MIN 132·HOU 127
Q4·1:18
Anthony Edwards offensive foul turnover
MIN 132·HOU 127
Q4·1:18
Anthony Edwards offensive foul
MIN 132·HOU 127
+4pp
Q4·1:37
Anthony Edwards defensive rebound
MIN 132·HOU 127
−1pp
Q4·1:40
Josh Okogie misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 132·HOU 127
−4pp

Betting line

HOU -9.5·O/U 227.5·MIN +370/HOU -485

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves went into Houston Rockets and beat them, 136–132. Decided by 4.

MIN +9.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 40.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.297
Joan BeringerMIN · F
TS%68.397
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.295

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high

Assists

Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high
Alperen SengunHOU
5.6± 2.4high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high

Steals

Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high
Reed SheppardHOU
1.6± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIN

league avg

HOU

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

47.6%

FG%

47.0

47.4%

116.8

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

25.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

14.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR