LAC
41-40
POR
41-40
Recap · NBA
ortland Trail Blazers held off LA Clippers, 116–97.
POR -1.5 cashed (won by 19). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 13.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LAC · top performer
Kawhi Leonard
F · #2
24
Pts
8
Reb
5
Ast
POR · top performer
Deni Avdija
F · #8
35
Pts
4
Reb
5
Ast
NBA · LA Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 37 | 24 | 10-20 | 1-5 | 3-3 | -6 | 8 | 5 | |
| 23 | 10 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 2-2 | -2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 36 | 21 | 8-15 | 5-11 | — | -6 | 6 | 1 | |
| 27 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | — | +3 | 5 | 1 | |
| 41 | 16 | 5-16 | 2-8 | 4-4 | -2 | 5 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | — | -18 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | -3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 32 | 15 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 3-3 | -22 | 5 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | -8 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-4 | — | -18 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 97 | 36-83 | 13-40 | 12-12 | 35 | 17 | ||
| DNP: B. Bogdanovic | ||||||||
DNP: B. Bogdanovic
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 5 | 2-13 | 1-8 | — | +2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 35 | 35 | 11-19 | 1-6 | 12-13 | +9 | 4 | 5 | |
| 28 | 18 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 3-3 | -9 | 13 | 2 | |
| 32 | 9 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 5-5 | +8 | 3 | 4 | |
| 31 | 9 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | +18 | 1 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 20 | 10 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | +19 | 7 | 2 | |
| 18 | 13 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 3-4 | +25 | 10 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 6 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | +16 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 1 | — | — | 1-2 | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 8 | 3-10 | 2-5 | — | +4 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | — | — | 2-2 | +1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 116 | 37-83 | 12-39 | 30-35 | 46 | 23 | ||
| DNP: V. Krejci | ||||||||
DNP: V. Krejci
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
45
17
Ast
23
Season series
Series tied 2-2
POR107@LAC114LAC119@POR103POR114@LAC104LAC97@POR116todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
POR -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
226.5
Standard · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LAC+10250%POR-12255%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
226.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 8:51
LACK. Leonard
FGame leader · 37 min
24 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST
PORD. Avdija
FGame leader · 35 min30-point game
35 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
POR beat LAC 116-97. D. Avdija led the way with 35 points and 5 assists. POR outscored the other side 30-13 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
POR vs LAC
Starters vs bench
production by unitLACstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
76 PTS · 26 REB · 15 AST
GS 56
Bench(9)
21 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
GS 5
PORstarters 66% of ptsStarters(5)
76 PTS · 22 REB · 17 AST
GS 63
Bench(9)
40 PTS · 24 REB · 6 AST
GS 42
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDerrick Jones Jr. · makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2
Kobe Sanders · shooting foul
Kawhi Leonard · enters the game for Darius Garland
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | 24 | 27 | 33 | 13 | 97 |
| POR | 33 | 28 | 25 | 30 | 116 |
Period scoring
LAC won 1 · POR won 3
Q1
Leonard 8
Avdija 16
Q2
Miller 7
Clingan 8
Q3
Jr. 10
Henderson 7
Q4
Leonard 4
Avdija 15
Shooting comparison
43%
36-83
FG
45%
37-83
33%
13-40
3PT
31%
12-39
100%
12-12
FT
86%
30-35
Play-by-play · 473 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAC 97·POR 116
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAC 97·POR 116
- Q4·7.4
shot clock turnover
LAC 97·POR 116
- Q4·30.4
Jayson Kent defensive rebound
LAC 97·POR 116
- Q4·33.6
Norchad Omier misses 2-foot reverse layup
LAC 97·POR 116
- Q4·50.6
Blake Wesley makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 97·POR 116
- Q4·50.6
Trail Blazers offensive team rebound
LAC 97·POR 115
- Q4·50.6
Blake Wesley misses free throw 1 of 2
LAC 97·POR 115
- Q4·50.6
Norchad Omier shooting foul
LAC 97·POR 115
- Q4·1:07
Norchad Omier makes tip shot
LAC 97·POR 115
- Q4·1:07
Norchad Omier offensive rebound
LAC 95·POR 115
- Q4·1:08
Cam Christie misses 14-foot turnaround jump shot
LAC 95·POR 115
- Q4·1:24
Jayson Kent enters the game for Kris Murray
·
LAC 95·POR 115
- Q4·1:24
Chris Youngblood personal take foul
LAC 95·POR 115
- Q4·1:32
Kris Murray makes 1-foot running dunk (Sidy Cissoko assists)
·
LAC 95·POR 115
- Q4·1:36
Sean Pedulla bad pass turnover (Sidy Cissoko steals)
·
LAC 95·POR 113
- Q4·1:52
Sidy Cissoko makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 95·POR 113
- Q4·1:52
Blake Wesley enters the game for Toumani Camara
·
LAC 95·POR 112
- Q4·1:52
Chris Youngblood enters the game for Deni Avdija
·
LAC 95·POR 112
- Q4·1:52
Yang Hansen enters the game for Scoot Henderson
·
LAC 95·POR 112
- Q4·1:52
Sidy Cissoko makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 95·POR 112
- Q4·1:52
Kobe Sanders loose ball foul
LAC 95·POR 111
- Q4·1:52
Trail Blazers defensive team rebound
LAC 95·POR 111
- Q4·1:52
Deni Avdija blocks Kobe Sanders 's 24-foot three point jumper
·
LAC 95·POR 111
- Q4·2:04
Kris Murray enters the game for Robert Williams III
·
LAC 95·POR 111
- Q4·2:04
Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 95·POR 111
- Q4·2:04
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Jrue Holiday
·
LAC 95·POR 110
- Q4·2:04
Sean Pedulla enters the game for Kris Dunn
·
LAC 95·POR 110
- Q4·2:04
Norchad Omier enters the game for Jordan Miller
·
LAC 95·POR 110
- Q4·2:04
TyTy Washington Jr. enters the game for Brook Lopez
·
LAC 95·POR 110
Team stats
LAC
Away
Stat
POR
Home
36-83
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
37-83
43
FG %
45
13-40
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-39
12-12
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
30-35
17
Assists
23
16
Turnovers
13
Betting line
POR -1.5·O/U 226.5·LAC +102/POR -122
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort- Deni AvdijaPOR · FDRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · CTS%72.299+
Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.697
Donovan ClinganPOR · CCONT7.694
Toumani CamaraPOR · FCONT6.489
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · LAC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
POR vs LAC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Kawhi LeonardLAC25.5± 4.3high
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Damian LillardPOR19.2± 8.2high
Rebounds
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR7.4± 1.6high
- Kawhi LeonardLAC6.5± 1.4high
Assists
- Darius GarlandLAC6.3± 2.3high
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
- Jrue HolidayPOR6.3± 3.0high
Blocks
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Brook LopezLAC1.3± 1.4high
- Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC1.3± 1.5high
Steals
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- Kris DunnLAC1.6± 1.1high
- Toumani CamaraPOR1.4± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
LAC
league avg
POR
55.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.0%
48.5%
FG%
47.0
45.1%
113.9
PPG
114.9
114.6
23.8
Assists / G
25.0
▶25.0
13.6
Turnovers / G
14.0
16.2